The Joint Economic Committee (JEC) released its July 2026 Monthly Debt Update, reporting that the total gross national debt reached $39.38 trillion as of July 3, 2026.
Debt held by the public totaled $31.68 trillion, while intergovernmental debt stood at $7.71 trillion.
According to the JEC, the nation’s debt has risen by $2.81 trillion over the past year and by $10.90 trillion over the past five years.
During the previous 12 months, the debt increased at an average pace of $7.71 billion per day, $321.15 million per hour, $5.35 million per minute, or $89,208.39 per second.
The annual increase equates to $8,204.76 per person and $20,814.36 per household, while total gross national debt now amounts to $115,188 per person and $292,217 per household.
Based on the average daily growth rate observed during the past three years, the United States is projected to surpass $40 trillion in gross national debt around October 2026. At the current pace, each additional trillion dollars of debt would accumulate in approximately 155 days.
The report also highlights the growing cost of servicing the federal debt. As of June 2026, the average interest rate on the total marketable national debt was 3.411% up from 3.375% one year earlier and 1.472% five years ago.
Over the past 12 months, the federal government paid $294.32 billion in interest to trust funds, averaging $24.53 billion per month.
According to projections from the Congressional Budget Office, net interest payments will account for 13.95% of federal outlays in FY26 rising to 14.25% in FY27, and 14.94% in FY28.
Treasury securities remain the primary component of publicly held debt. Of the $31.68 trillion in public debt outstanding, $16.06 trillion is held in notes, $6.69 trillion in bills, $5.45 trillion in bonds, and $3.49 trillion in other securities.
Treasury demands remain robust, with June 2026 bid-to-cover ratios of 2.72 for four-week bills, 2.40 for 10-year notes, and 2.30 for 30-year bonds.
Approximately 33% of publicly held marketable debt is scheduled to mature within the next 12 months, while the average maturity of marketable debt stood at 70 months as of March 2026.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
U.S. Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ01), chairman of the Joint Economic Committee (JEC), warned that the United States faces growing fiscal risk unless Congress acts sooner to stabilize the federal debt-to-GDP ratio.
Schweikert sent the committee’s latest Views and Estimates letter to House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington in a letter earlier this month.
“There is great uncertainty about when and how the debt will switch from sustainable, business as-usual, to an unsustainable, market-unraveling nightmare,” Schweikert wrote. “Every year we wait to change course increases leverage, and the higher the debt-to-GDP ratio the easier it is for bad headwinds—such as crisis spending or interest rate fragility—to lock us into a debt spiral. In short, allowing the debt burden to increase is a levered bet, and the downside risks are already enormous.”
JEC Chairman @RepDavid sent @HouseBudgetGOP Chairman @RepArrington the latest Views & Estimates. “There is great uncertainty about when & how the debt will switch from sustainable, business as-usual, to an unsustainable, market-unraveling nightmare. https://t.co/pPMp4K17EP
— Joint Economic Committee Republicans (@JECRepublicans) June 8, 2026
The committee’s Republican staff found that rising federal debt is structurally unsustainable and that stabilizing the debt-to-GDP ratio will require large early policy changes. The letter states that delaying action materially increases the risk of severe economic and financial consequences.
According to the letter, federal debt has recently reached 100 percent of gross domestic product, meaning the federal debt is now roughly the size of the economy’s total annual output. The Congressional Budget Office projects debt held by the public will reach 118 percent of GDP by 2035, 142 percent by 2045, and 172 percent by 2055. Treasury projections cited in the letter are higher, estimating 129 percent by 2035, 183 percent by 2045, and 245 percent by 2055.
The JEC letter describes the current debt path as a “levered bet on stability” that depends on avoiding major crises requiring substantial fiscal headroom and on future interest rates remaining favorable relative to economic growth. The letter warns that the damage to the nation’s fiscal position and status as a world power could be “catastrophic and irreversible” if those conditions deteriorate.
The committee cited estimates from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget indicating that a fiscal adjustment of about $9.5 trillion over ten years would be needed to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio at about 100 percent. The JEC letter used a similar ballpark estimate of about $9.2 trillion to close the primary deficit over a ten-year window, while noting that the exact adjustment would depend on interest rates, economic growth, the timing of policy changes, and the path of the primary deficit.
“In any case, these are magnitudes of adjustment virtually absent from current policy debates,” the letter states.
The letter recommended reforms in Medicare, international taxation, and immigration that it estimated would produce about $3.6 trillion in deficit reduction over ten years, or roughly 40 percent of the adjustment identified as necessary to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio.
The largest proposed savings would come from Medicare Advantage reform. The letter states that Medicare Advantage now covers 55 percent of all Medicare beneficiaries and that flawed payment policies, excessive coding practices, insufficient enforcement, and federal inaction have driven up costs. According to the JEC, Medicare Advantage beneficiaries are now estimated to cost roughly 14 percent more than they would under traditional Medicare, amounting to an estimated $76 billion in excess federal spending in 2025.
The letter cites H.R. 3467, the Better Medicare Act, as a proposal to realign Medicare Advantage incentives. The JEC estimated the legislation would reduce federal spending by approximately $1.8 trillion over ten years.
In a Fox Business appearance posted to X by Schweikert’s office, Schweikert described what he called “institutional design fraud,” citing his team’s investigations into New York and California “where they’re exploiting part of the Medicaid system for billions and billions and billions of dollars.”
Federal prosecutors say a $30 million Medicaid scheme meant for children’s mental health services helped pay for a fleet of luxury vehicles. That is bad actor fraud.
But the real bleeding is coming from New York and California exploiting parts of Medicaid for billions and… pic.twitter.com/jFyGJr3JAC
“If New York actually had the same cost in their Medicaid system,” he continued, “it would be a $50 billion savings a year if they had the same costs as other states. That’s actually where the tremendous amount of money is, because remember, we’re borrowing about a million dollars every 15 seconds. So, the scale is what’s just so hard to get your head around.”
The committee also recommended a border adjustment tax policy, which would tax business income based on where products are sold rather than where they are produced. Under the proposal, export receipts would be excluded from the tax base and import deductions would be disallowed. The JEC estimated the policy could raise approximately $1.5 trillion over ten years.
On immigration, the committee recommended shifting employment-based admissions toward higher-producing applicants through a points-based, industry-targeted framework. The letter states that an aging population and a shrinking pool of younger workers are reducing the labor force needed to grow the economy and service the debt. The JEC estimated that such a reform could produce a net fiscal benefit of $335 billion over ten years and $1.34 trillion over twenty years, assuming annual immigration remains at current levels.
Schweikert has raised the alarm regarding demographic decline as a driver of fiscal collapse, citing three unassailable facts: “debt, deficits and demographics,” in March 2025.
The letter also credited H.R. 1, commonly known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, with pro-growth tax provisions. The JEC said policymakers should redirect their focus toward “transparently pro-growth reforms” and cited federal land sales, reforms of the Jones Act, and policy related to port automation as examples of areas that could support growth.
Schweikert’s letter concluded that growth alone should not be counted on to resolve the federal government’s fiscal problems.
“I have highlighted fiscal reforms that would bring us about 40 percent of the way to stability of the debt-to-GDP ratio,” Schweikert concluded in the letter. “While there is strong potential for increasing economic growth as a partial solution, we should not count on growth alone to address our fiscal problems.”
Congressman Andy Biggs (AZ-05) has introduced a resolution in the U.S. House of Representatives formally recognizing America’s escalating national debt as a direct threat to national security.
As the national debt surpassed $36.2 trillion in January 2025, with the fiscal year 2024 interest expense exceeding $1.13 trillion, Congressman Biggs is urging Congress to confront the growing fiscal crisis head-on.
The resolution highlights the severity of the debt crisis, noting that the total public debt reached 120.87% of GDP in January 2025, equating to $104,780 per citizen and $323,045 per taxpayer.
It points to the federal government failing to produce a balanced budget since 1997, with the fiscal year 2024 resulting in a $1.86 trillion deficit due to federal outlays of $6.94 trillion.
The resolution warns that continued reliance on raising the debt ceiling and bypassing regular order in the appropriations process undermines fiscal responsibility and congressional oversight.
The resolution also references warnings from former national security leaders, including Secretary of Defense James Mattis, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Michael Mullen, who have all emphasized the national debt’s threat to military and economic security.
Congressman Biggs, who has introduced this resolution in previous Congresses, remains steadfast in advocating for fiscal discipline. He has also proposed a balanced budget amendment to the U.S. Constitution to enforce long-term fiscal responsibility.
“The federal government’s wasteful spending spree is unsustainable and is inching us ever closer to a fiscal cliff,” said Biggs. “Our reckless spending habits will enable our adversaries to surpass us on the global stage and constrain our ability to defend our nation in the face of attack. It is past time for Congress to be serious about balancing the nation’s budget and making significant cuts to federal spending, lest we pin a $70 trillion debt on our children and grandchildren’s shoulders. Relying on continuing resolutions year after year is lazy legislating. Raising the debt ceiling every year is a cop out. American voters elected us to enact President Trump’s America First priorities through responsible budgeting, not to maintain the status quo. My resolution acknowledges that Washington has a spending problem and calls to restore regular order to the appropriations process.”
Congressman Biggs’ resolution and amendment are backed by cosponsors across the country, including Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL), Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ), Rep Daniel Webster (R-FL), Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-WA), and Rep. Keith Self (R-TX).
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
Like a cruise ship steaming toward an iceberg, America’s economy is headed for disaster.
The federal government reports an interest-bearing debt of $37 trillion. However, the actual unfunded obligations of the government, according to the Medicare and Social Security Trustees’ reports, is an unfathomable $158.6 trillion.
Yet the band plays on. In the latest game of chicken to avoid the dreaded but largely imaginary “government shut down,” Democrats stood fast on the theory that their electoral success depends on shipping the maximum number of dollars out the door. Republicans once again proved an inadequate bulwark. Those taking a principled stand against business as usual were denominated “far-right obstructionists” and run over.
The current Republican plan combines a $4.5 trillion tax cut with doubtful spending reductions of $2 trillion, a plan the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects will eventually raise the interest-bearing debt to $60 trillion. Reminder: the Rs are the cost-cutting party.
Trump’s deficit-busting credentials are suspect. During his first term, he added debt at twice the annual rate than Barack Obama did. Nevertheless, he has unleashed a dramatic program of mass firings, contract canceling, and agency reduction/elimination.
Serious cost cutters know that the most effective strategy is to cut where the fiscal impact is high relative to the resistance produced. The DOGE strategy is the exact opposite, already producing highly publicized and resented cuts with no possibility, even if fully implemented, of resolving our debt crisis.
The elimination of all federal civilian employees, no matter how useless and overpaid many are, would save only 3% of the federal budget. To save money, you have to go where the money is. By far the largest “bucket” of federal spending is transfer payments, which are $3.19 trillion of the $6.7 trillion total budget in 2023.
Federal subsidies to states, including Medicaid, cost $1.15 trillion, while debt interest of $.9 trillion is not available for cutting. Purchases of supplies and salaries, which fund the military and all other governmental functions, cost a combined $1.4 trillion, yet provide relatively scant opportunity for significant reductions.
Meanwhile, the two parties dare each other to actually cut transfer payments and “push granny over the cliff.” Trump’s response is to adamantly repeat that he will never in any way “cut Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid benefits.”
This war of words has the unfortunate effect of handcuffing those legitimately trying to plan for the total depletion of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds, scheduled to occur within the decade. It also rules out some of the non-draconian solutions available like work requirements for the able-bodied and gradually raising the retirement age.
When and if we get serious about cost-cutting and generational fraud, a good place to start would be Medicaid, the most abused and inefficient welfare program. Spending on Medicaid has grown an inflation-adjusted 671% since 1990. In fact, as Senator Phil Graham recently pointed out in the Wall Street Journal, the real purchasing power of total government transfer payments is 20 times greater than when the War on Poverty began in 1990, while the official poverty rate remains at 11.6%.
How can that be? Gramm provides the key insight. Eligibility standards for means-tested programs including Medicaid are based on the Census Bureau’s calculations. But the Census vastly overstates the extent of poverty because it doesn’t count as income 88% of the transfer payments, including food stamps, refundable tax credits, and Medicaid itself. This incoherent bias in calculating income eligibility has led to massive waste, far exceeding DOGE’s projected savings.
Interestingly, the CBO in January developed a new metric for determining “poverty” in the traditional sense of not having enough resources to meet basic needs. When transfer payments were deemed income, which they obviously are, the actual poverty rate fell to 0.8%.
This is an opportunity to save substantial sums without harming those actually poor. $1.48 trillion in welfare benefits annually go to families not actually qualifying as poor, using the CBO’s calculation of counting transfer payments as income. Simply using the CBO methodology, combined with work requirements and limiting welfare benefits to those truly in need, would generate meaningful savings if we have the political courage to do so.
Dr. Thomas Patterson, former Chairman of the Goldwater Institute, is a retired emergency physician. He served as an Arizona State senator for 10 years in the 1990s, and as Majority Leader from 93-96. He is the author of Arizona’s original charter schools bill.
Congressman David Schweikert (R-AZ1) delivered his weekly speech before the U.S. House of Representatives last Tuesday and stated that the looming fiscal crisis of the United States is not an ideological matter but is instead a matter of inevitability.
Schweikert, widely known as a budget hawk conservative on the federal deficit and the trajectory of the national debt, warned that the political culture on both sides of the aisle “remains entrapped in a cycle of partisan folklore.”
In a press release, he stated that “the nation’s debt trajectory—already consuming 40 percent of global sovereign borrowing—is poised to spiral out of control, with interest payments alone eclipsing essential expenditures.”
Schweikert suggested in his remarks that with the Social Security trust fund projected to collapse by 2033, “the nation is blindly entering into an era where senior poverty will double overnight.” But he provided a blueprint for a potential solution that leverages data science and AI-driven efficiencies to close this gap, noting that Congress’ failure to do so has further exacerbated the oncoming fiscal collapse.
He told the House, “If I came to you today and said, ‘Let’s strip any partisanship; we need to find waste, fraud, abuse, modeling issues where we’re doing things the wrong way, where we have models that are decades out of date…’ would you hire an army of auditors? An army of lawyers? Or would you hire data scientists?”
He answered, “Turns out, several years ago, Congress started requiring agencies that send out payments that cover health care costs and that send out checks to start sending error reports. In 2023, the reports came back at $236 billion of improper payments. That’s a stunning amount of money, but that doesn’t mean that there’s $236 billion of improper payments that have been stolen. There’s a bunch that has been, but it’s more complex. An army of auditors would take years to grind through this. That’s why there’s the miracle of technology right now—hire some data scientists.“
Schweikert also suggested a policy of aggressive transparency and candor with the American people saying ,“In 2033, the Social Security trust fund is empty. Our brothers and sisters on Social Security will take a 17 percent to 20 percent cut; we DOUBLE senior poverty in America. And when someone says, ‘Just raise the cap,’ our model shows that in 2034, raising the cap only covers about 38 percent of the shortfall. You’ve wiped out the cash needed to save Medicare, which actually runs out like three years later.”
He continued, citing the COVID shutdown and stimulus as being a serious contributor to the problem, “One of the reasons for this chart is [it’s] trying to demonstrate something very simple, that back before TCJA– the 2017 tax reform– the actual projection of what tax receipts would be– so, before the tax changes– we’re right on track. You see the weird blip there? That was a remarkable amount of spending that happened during the pandemic. We actually just went back to nominal. So, what happens here? What happens when there’s this intense, intense hunger to play this weird blame game instead of being willing to tell our voters the truth?“
