by Jonathan Eberle | Sep 16, 2025 | Economy, News
By Jonathan Eberle |
According to a new report from the Common Sense Institute (CSI), inflation in the Phoenix metro area rose 1.4% year-over-year in August, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The increase marks a climb from June’s 0.8% reading and ends a four-month stretch where local inflation hovered below 1%.
As noted by the report, the uptick comes as Arizona’s economy shows signs of slowing, with weaker job growth and a cooling housing market. Still, compared with much of the nation, inflation in Phoenix remains subdued. Among the 23 metro areas tracked monthly, Phoenix ranked 20th in year-over-year price growth, continuing a dramatic reversal from 2022 and 2023, when the region routinely topped the list for fastest-rising prices.
Nationally, inflation picked up in August, rising 2.9% from a year earlier after holding steady at 2.7% in the prior two months. Prices across the country have now exceeded the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for more than two years.
Since August 2019, consumer prices in Phoenix have climbed 30.2%, adding about $1,525 in monthly costs for the average Arizona household. Nationally, prices are up 26.3% over the same period. Typically, inflation would run closer to 10% in a five-year span. On a two-month basis, Phoenix saw a 0.9% increase from June to August, tying January for the largest short-term jump of the year. Nationally, prices rose 0.6% over that period.
Housing costs remain a key driver of Phoenix’s relatively low inflation reading. Shelter prices fell 0.1% year-over-year in August, the fourth consecutive month of negative growth. Excluding shelter, inflation in the Valley was 2.3%—still below the national average, but nearly double the headline local figure. The Federal Reserve, which aims to balance price stability with job growth, faces a complicated outlook. While local inflation has hovered below target for nearly a year, national prices have not fallen under 2.3% since 2021.
Jonathan Eberle is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Jonathan Eberle | Aug 30, 2025 | Economy, News
By Jonathan Eberle |
Financial fraud is emerging as one of Arizona’s most costly economic threats, with residents projected to lose more than $4 billion in 2025, according to a new analysis from the Common Sense Institute (CSI). The report, The Impact of Financial Fraud in Arizona, outlines how scams, identity theft, and other fraudulent activity are draining household finances and hampering economic growth. In 2024, Arizonans reported nearly 55,000 fraud cases, leading to $521 million in losses—an increase of 384 percent since 2020.
CSI economists estimate that only about 14 percent of fraud is ever reported, meaning the true cost is far higher. By next year, the institute projects that reported losses could reach $558 million, with an additional $3.4 billion in unreported incidents.
“Arizona is projected to lose over $4 billion to financial fraud in 2025. That’s nearly 1% of the state’s total GDP,” said Zachary Milne, senior economist and research analyst at CSI. “Fraud is a systemic drain on Arizona’s families and the economy. Eliminating these losses would mean billions in growth, tens of thousands more job opportunities, and lower prices for Arizonans.”
Key Findings from the Report
- The average loss per incident in Arizona was $6,270—nearly 30 percent higher than the national average.
- Arizona ranked 11th nationally for fraud cases, with 1,459 reports per 100,000 residents.
- Older residents face the greatest impact. Adults 60 and older account for two-thirds of internet-based fraud losses, with those 70 and older suffering the highest average dollar losses.
- For every dollar lost to fraud, Arizonans lose $1.06 in personal income due to broader economic effects. Families also face slightly higher prices on everyday goods and services.
- Fraud contributes to reduced economic activity, costing Arizona more than 45,000 jobs.
Fraud schemes cited in the report range from identity theft and phishing to romance scams, wire transfer fraud, and elder financial abuse. As more commerce moves online, CSI researchers warn that the risks will only grow.
The study also highlights how financial crime affects more than direct victims. Lost spending power, higher security costs, and reduced consumer confidence create ripple effects across the state’s economy. CSI estimates fraud-related losses shrink Arizona’s GDP by $5.2 billion annually. Nationally, the FBI and Federal Trade Commission tracked tens of billions of dollars in fraud losses in 2024, part of a steady upward trend over the past five years. Arizona, with its above-average loss rate and older population, is particularly vulnerable.
The report concludes that combating fraud is not only a matter of protecting individuals but also of preserving Arizona’s long-term economic health.
Jonathan Eberle is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Jonathan Eberle | Aug 26, 2025 | Economy, News
By Jonathan Eberle |
Arizona’s labor market continued to struggle in July, losing nearly 5,000 jobs and marking the state’s third consecutive month of employment decline, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The state shed 4,900 nonfarm jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis last month, a 0.15% decrease that ranked Arizona 46th among all states in monthly job growth. Since April, the state has lost a total of 23,400 jobs—the steepest decline in both raw numbers and percentage change of any state in the nation.
Nationally, employment also slipped, falling 0.12% in July. Twenty-one states reported job losses.
On a year-over-year basis, Arizona gained 29,600 jobs, a 0.9% increase that puts the state roughly in line with the national average of 1.0%. But the pace of growth has slowed sharply compared to recent years. So far in 2025, Arizona has added just 5,200 jobs—an average of 743 per month. Between 2022 and 2024, monthly job growth averaged more than 5,300.
Economists say the state remains well below its pre-pandemic trajectory. Arizona now has about 254,400 fewer workers than it would have had if its 2017–2019 growth trend had continued. At the current pace, the gap is unlikely to close.
The state’s mining and logging industry was the strongest performer, adding 1,400 jobs in July and growing nearly 10% over the past year. Analysts credit federal policy shifts and rising demand for U.S.-sourced raw materials like copper and uranium for the sector’s continued momentum.
By contrast, manufacturing continued to contract, losing 1,100 jobs last month and more than 3,000 over the past year—a 1.6% decline. Nationwide, the sector has also struggled, with 29 states reporting year-over-year manufacturing job losses. Leisure and hospitality posted the steepest monthly decline in Arizona, down 0.9% in July.
Arizona’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, holding steady for the fifth straight month. The labor force participation rate also stayed flat at 61.4%. By comparison, the U.S. unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% in July, while the national participation rate edged down to 62.2%. Both Arizona and the nation remain below pre-pandemic participation levels.
Wages showed modest improvement. Average hourly earnings in Arizona increased by 10 cents in July to $34.79, a 0.29% rise that ranked 18th among all states. Over the past 12 months, wages in the state climbed 4.9%, outpacing the national average of 3.9%. Adjusted for inflation, real wages in Arizona are up 4% compared to just 1.1% nationwide.
Still, long-term wage trends tell a different story. Since April 2020, inflation-adjusted pay in Arizona has fallen 4.1%.
The report also underscored concerns about the reliability of monthly employment estimates. June’s figures were revised downward sharply—from a reported loss of 8,400 jobs to a revised loss of 15,200. That revision ranked as the seventh largest adjustment among all states.
Economists caution that declining survey response rates and lingering disruptions from the pandemic have increased volatility in state-level labor data, making short-term trends harder to interpret.
Jonathan Eberle is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Ethan Faverino | Aug 18, 2025 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) marks the most transformative overhaul of federal tax policy since the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
The OBBBA locks in the TCJA’s individual tax provisions, avoiding a tax increase for approximately 62% of tax filers in 2026, according to the Tax Foundation.
The group’s recent analysis also shows that the law will reduce federal taxes for individual taxpayers in every state, with an average national tax cut of $3,752 per taxpayer in 2026.
The economic impact is equally as big, with 938,000 new full-time equivalent jobs created over the long term, including 132,000 in California, 81,000 in Texas, and down to 1,800 in Vermont.
In Arizona, the Tax Foundation says that the OBBBA will deliver an average tax cut of $3,521 per taxpayer in 2026, providing relief to families and individuals across the state.
Maricopa County will see an average tax cut of $4,049 per taxpayer in 2026, driven by key provisions like:
- Income Tax Rate Cuts and Bracket Changes: $1,613 in savings per taxpayer.
- Standard Deduction Expansion: $821 in savings
- Child Tax Credit Expansion: $630 in savings
- Tip and Overtime Deductions: $50 and $229 in savings
- Business Provisions: $1,321 in savings
Other counties in the state will see major tax cuts in 2026, including Coconino County, with $3,096, Yavapai County, with $3,066, Greenlee County, with $3,011, Pima County, with $2,781, and Pinal County, with $2,553.
The Tax Foundation also projects that Arizona will gain approximately 18,014 full-time equivalent jobs in the long run, boosting local economies and supporting communities across the state.
OBBBA’s long-term outlook remains strong, with average tax cuts projected to dip to $2,505 in 2030 due to the expiration of temporary provisions like the tip and overtime deductions, before rising to $3,301 by 2035 as inflation enhances the value of permanent cuts.
Arizona’s business-friendly provisions, such as permanent 100% bonus depreciation and research and development (R&D) expense, will continue to drive investment and job creation.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Jonathan Eberle | Aug 17, 2025 | Economy, News
By Jonathan Eberle |
Main Street confidence ticked upward in July, with the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rising 1.7 points to 100.3, edging above its long-term average for the first time in months. The lift was driven largely by more owners reporting better business conditions and viewing it as a good time to expand.
The latest figures, however, paint a mixed picture. While sentiment improved, NFIB’s Uncertainty Index climbed eight points to 97, and labor quality has re-emerged as the top challenge, cited by 21% of owners, the highest share since early spring.
Survey results show growing confidence in day-to-day operations. Thirteen percent of owners rated their business health as “excellent,” up five points from June, and 52% said it was “good,” up three points. Reports of “fair” or “poor” conditions declined. Owners’ outlook on the economy also improved: the net share expecting better business conditions jumped 14 points to 36%, well above historical norms. Sixteen percent said it is a good time to expand, up from 11% last month.
Even with the improved outlook, sales remain a point of concern. Eleven percent named poor sales as their most pressing problem — the highest since February 2021. Inflation worries held steady at 11%, the lowest level since September 2021, though 28% plan to raise prices in the months ahead, a sign that cost pressures persist.
Worker shortages remain acute. Thirty-three percent of owners reported job openings they could not fill, the lowest since December 2020 but still well above average. Of those hiring, 84% said they had few or no qualified applicants. Plans to boost pay are cooling: 27% reported raising compensation in July, down six points, and 17% plan to do so in the next three months. Labor costs were named the top concern by 9% of respondents.
Capital investment showed modest improvement. Fifty-five percent of owners reported spending in the past six months, with the largest share buying new equipment. Still, plans for future capital outlays remain below long-term averages. Borrowing conditions are relatively stable, with only 4% saying their last loan was harder to get. Interest rate concerns remain low, though 25% of owners borrow regularly — a historically small share.
Jonathan Eberle is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
