A new poll from Emerson College and The Hill found that former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in Arizona and six other key swing states.
The poll, released on Monday, reflected a consistency in swing state preferences since last November, according to the pollsters. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a press release that the main differences concerned a diminishment in undecided voters and increase in support for Biden in Georgia and Nevada.
“The state of the presidential election in swing states has remained relatively consistent since Emerson and The Hill started tracking them last November,” said Kimball. “The share of undecided voters has reduced and Biden gained ground in Georgia and Nevada, narrowing the gap, while Trump has maintained a slight edge on Biden in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”
Trump leads Biden by four percent in Arizona (eight percent undecided), three percent in Georgia (nine percent undecided), one percent in Michigan and Nevada (11 percent undecided), five percent in North Carolina (10 percent undecided), and two percent in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (eight percent undecided).
Last November, the pollsters found that Trump led Biden by two percent in Arizona among both registered and likely voters (16 percent and 11 percent undecided, respectively).
In this latest poll, Trump won over more independent voters than Biden in Arizona (48 percent compared to 38 percent), as well as Michigan (44 to 35 percent), Nevada (43 to 37 percent), Pennsylvania (49 to 33 percent), and North Carolina (41 to 38 percent). Georgia and Wisconsin independent voters favored Biden, at 42 to 38 percent and 44 to 41 percent, respectively.
Biden had a 51 percent disapproval rating, compared to 40 percent approval in Arizona. The other swing states had similar dismal disapproval ratings for the president: 52 percent disapproval in Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin; 53 percent disapproval in North Carolina; and 51 percent disapproval in Pennsylvania.
Third party candidates reflected a bigger hurt than help for the incumbent president in most swing states, save for Arizona and Michigan, where Biden and Trump came up even for voter support.
The poll found that a plurality of voters in all swing states believed that the New York criminal trial against Trump was appropriate, and not a “witch hunt,” as the pollsters described.
13 percent of Arizona Republicans polled said they would be less likely to vote for Trump if he received a guilty verdict in the trial. Overall, a majority of Republican respondents said they would be more likely to support the former president should he be found guilty.
Independent voters said they would be 32 percent more likely to vote for Trump if he is found guilty, 43 percent said the ruling would have no impact, and 25 percent said they would be less likely to support him.
The poll also asked voters about their U.S. Senate candidates and sentiments of their governors.
In Arizona, 45 percent supported Democrat Ruben Gallego to replace outgoing Independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema, compared with 43 percent in support of Kari Lake. Gallego had a marginal gain of one percent compared to Lake’s three compared to the pollsters’ previous data from March.
Governor Katie Hobbs received a 42 percent disapproval rating, with 38 percent approving and 20 percent neutral. Hobbs was the only swing state governor on the poll that had a majority disapproval rating.
AZ Free News is your #1 source for Arizona news and politics. You can send us news tips using this link.
The Grand Canyon State welcomed a grand manufacturing funding expansion this week.
On Wednesday, President Joe Biden appeared in Chandler, Arizona, at the Intel Ocotillo location to “announce that the Department of Commerce has reached a preliminary agreement with Intel to provide up to $8.5 billion in direct funding along with $11 billion in loans under the CHIPS and Science Act.” According to a White House fact sheet, this investment would “support the construction and expansion of Intel facilities in Arizona, Ohio, New Mexico, and Oregon, creating nearly 30,000 jobs and supporting tens of thousands of indirect jobs.”
Today, President Biden announced a historic agreement with Intel to build and expand four semiconductor manufacturing facilities here in America – helping put us on track to manufacture 20% of the world’s leading-edge chips by the end of the decade. pic.twitter.com/EeUtyFTw3R
In a post on “X” after his speech, President Biden wrote, “Semiconductors are the tiny computer chips smaller than a fingertip that power our everyday lives. We invented them, but over time we moved manufacturing overseas. I came to office determined to bring their production home. That’s what our CHIPS Act does.”
Semiconductors are the tiny computer chips smaller than a fingertip that power our everyday lives.
We invented them, but over time we moved manufacturing overseas.
I came to office determined to bring their production home.
Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs attended the event at Intel and spoke to attendees. After the announcement, Hobbs championed the increased funding for a vital sector within her state, saying, “I’m excited to announce that Intel will receive a historic investment from the CHIPS Act, made possible thanks to President Biden’s leadership. This critical investment will drive innovation, create jobs, and solidify Arizona’s position as a leader in semiconductor manufacturing.”
I’m excited to announce that @Intel will receive a historic investment from the CHIPS Act, made possible thanks to @POTUS' leadership. This critical investment will drive innovation, create jobs, and solidify Arizona’s position as a leader in semiconductor manufacturing. pic.twitter.com/cu0CC6k4qq
Hobbs added, “Our success story is only possible with our exceptional workforce. BuildItAZ, Future48 Workforce Accelerators, and semiconductor apprenticeships will help ensure Arizonans are ready to take advantage of these good paying jobs. Intel has been a leader in the Arizona business community for decades. Thank you to CEO Pat Gelsinger for continuing our partnership. Your vision and leadership are driving innovation, creating jobs, and strengthening Arizona’s position in the global semiconductor industry.”
Gina Raimondo, the Secretary of the Commerce Department, also took part in the gathering at Intel. She shared, “Today, we announced an $8.5 billion preliminary agreement with Intel that will help strengthen supply chains, revitalize American semiconductor manufacturing, and create nearly 30,000 jobs. It was great to join President Biden in Arizona to share the news.”
Today, we announced an $8.5 billion preliminary agreement with @Intel that will help strengthen supply chains, revitalize American semiconductor manufacturing, and create nearly 30,000 jobs.
“Today is a defining moment for the U.S. and Intel as we work to power the next great chapter of American semiconductor innovation,” said Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger. “AI is supercharging the digital revolution and everything digital needs semiconductors. CHIPS Act support will help to ensure that Intel and the U.S. stay at the forefront of the AI era as we build a resilient and sustainable semiconductor supply chain to power our nation’s future.”
Huge news for American semiconductor manufacturing and technology leadership.
The president of the National Border Patrol Council (NBPC), Brandon Judd, says that President Joe Biden’s policies effectively forced their support of the border bill.
Judd toldThe Arizona Daily Independent that Biden’s State of the Union (SOTU) was a “slap in the face” that didn’t adequately acknowledge the border crisis. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) invited Judd as her guest to the SOTU, though Judd didn’t join her.
“The reason we support the border bill is because President Biden put us in a position where we have to accept anything,” said Judd.
The bill referenced by Judd was the $118 billion foreign aid bill — formed by Sinema alongside Sens. James Lankford (R-OK) and Chris Murphy (D-CT) — which contained marginal provisions for border security, with a majority set aside for Ukraine and other nations.
Pleased to announce that Brandon Judd, President of the National Border Patrol Council, will be my guest at this year’s State of the Union address. Washington partisans may have decided to move on from the border crisis, but in AZ, we don’t have that luxury.… pic.twitter.com/TUYDLmiHY5
However, Judd commended Sinema’s advocacy for more border security in a press release issued by Sinema ahead of the SOTU.
“[Sinema] has advocated for border security in all forms whether it be at the Ports of Entry or between. She has listened to the voices of the people doing their best to protect this great nation,” said Judd.
Sinema announced earlier this week that she wouldn’t be seeking reelection. The development wasn’t all too surprising, given that she had failed to file her statement of interest to run.
Another representative of the border crisis, president of an NBPC local in New York and agent Brandon Budlong, was invited to the SOTU.
Budlong said in a House GOP video series critiquing the Biden administration that border agents are unable to do what “they’re meant to do,” turning away illegal immigrants, and instead “streamlining millions” of illegal immigrants into the country.
“Hearing the news about Laken Riley’s death was extremely frustrating for me,” said Budlong. “It makes you almost feel like you failed at your job, even though you did everything that you could with the policies in place. This administration created this crisis and they can fix it, but they refuse to do so.”
"This Administration created this crisis and they can fix it. But, they refuse to do so." Border Patrol Agent and President of the National Border Patrol Council Local 2724 Brandon of Theresa, New York. pic.twitter.com/rILXMaS8qW
Riley was a 22-year-old nursing student murdered during her morning jog on the University of Georgia campus last month. The accused murderer, 26-year-old Jose Antonio Ibarra, came to the U.S. illegally from Venezuela in September 2022 near El Paso, Texas. Ibarra received parole due to ICE’s inability to lodge a detainer in a timely manner, effectively benefitting from the catch and release that many other illegal immigrants have enjoyed throughout the Biden administration.
In his short stint in the U.S., Ibarra was arrested in New York last September for acting in a manner to injure a minor and a driving license violation. Ibarra had been living in a taxpayer-funded shelter. Ibarra left the state shortly after his NYC arrest for Georgia.
The New York Post reported on Friday that Ibarra was permitted entry despite documented ties to Teen de Aragua (TdA), a Venezuelan gang operating in New York and Georgia, as well as Texas, Illinois, and Florida. The Post discovered that Department of Homeland Security (DHS) internal documents had Ibarra’s name listed as belonging to TdA.
In a motion filed earlier this week, federal authorities alleged that Ibarra’s brother, Diego, has ties to the same gang.
Diego was arrested shortly after his brother for possession of a fake green card; he had cut off an ankle monitor to evade authorities. Diego also had an arrest record. He was arrested three times by Athens, Georgia law enforcement for a DUI and driving without a license, shoplifting, and failure to appear in court.
The House passed the Laken Riley Act, an immigration bill requiring federal detention of migrants charged with burglary or theft, on Thursday.
Riley did receive a mention by Biden during his SOTU, though only after an outburst during his speech by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA-14) demanded that Biden “say her name.” Biden did say Riley’s name, though he mispronounced it as “Lincoln Riley.” The president then downplayed her death by contrasting it with the number of other deaths that occur every day under illegal immigrants.
“Lincoln — Lincoln Riley, an innocent young woman who was killed by an illegal,” said Biden. “That’s right, but how many of the thousands of people [are] being killed by illegals?”
Corinne Murdock is a reporter for AZ Free News. Follow her latest on Twitter, or email tips to corinne@azfreenews.com.
House Democrats believe that Americans who think the border is mismanaged are “confused.”
Democrats in the House Homeland Security Committee issued the remarks during a press conference on Monday addressing the newly-released articles of impeachment against Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Alejandro Mayorkas. Committee Republicans published the draft articles on Sunday.
Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS-02), ranking member, indicated that DHS was handling the border correctly and operating in line with the direction of President Joe Biden. Thompson noted that the greater concern for he and his Democratic colleagues was that the impeachment efforts were the cause of lost confidence in DHS and Mayorkas.
“Democrats are real concerned that this is just one of those efforts to confuse the public that something is going wrong at the Department of Homeland Security. Our secretary works at the direction of the president,” said Thompson. “This notion that in carrying out the directions of your boss somehow is an impeachable offense is wrong.”
House Democrats say the public is merely confused if they believe there's something wrong with the border under @DHSgov. They also say @SecMayorkas shouldn't be impeached because he's just following orders from @POTUS. pic.twitter.com/c5P9mw7kxs
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY-08) also spoke at the press conference. Jeffries claimed that it was “extreme MAGA Republicans” who were misleading the American public on the state of the border. Jeffries further claimed that House Republicans produced “no evidence” that Mayorkas committed an impeachable or unconstitutional offense.
“The extreme MAGA republicans have been directed by Donald Trump not to work together to address the challenges at the border and to instead distract the American people,” said Jeffries.
Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NY-10), another committee member, argued that Republicans caused the border crisis. Goldman claimed that the Biden administration implemented policies to streamline the asylum process, reduce the immigration case backlog, and a cessation of illegal immigration between ports of entry.
“The Republicans are literally trying to stop the administration from securing the border, while they are saying, and so they can say, that the administration is not securing the border,” said Goldman. “They are creating this situation and then they want to blame President Biden.”
Under the first few weeks of his administration, the country experienced an unprecedented deluge of illegal immigration after Biden reversed most of the border policies from his predecessor, former President Donald Trump.
As reported extensively throughout investigations published by the Homeland Security Committee and border agents on the ground, illegal immigrants and cartels have become increasingly emboldened to violate border and trafficking laws. Last week, smugglers assaulted a Border Patrol agent arresting several illegal immigrants.
Since Biden took office, there have been over 7.15 million illegal immigrant encounters at the southern border, and an unknown number of gotaways estimated in total to be around several million.
In the 2023 fiscal year, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) arrested over 35,400 illegal immigrants with criminal convictions nationwide, of whom nearly 600 were known gang members. Since the 2021 fiscal year, agents have arrested nearly 300 illegal immigrants on the terrorist watchlist.
The House Homeland Security Committee is scheduled to consider the articles of impeachment against Mayorkas on Tuesday at 8 am. The hearing will be streamed here.
Corinne Murdock is a reporter for AZ Free News. Follow her latest on Twitter, or email tips to corinne@azfreenews.com.
Arizonans may be ready to do an about-face on a candidate for President of the United States if recent polls are any indication of next year’s results in the November 2024 General Election.
On Tuesday, Noble Predictive Insights released a poll, showing that former President Donald J. Trump has an eight-point lead over current President Joe Biden in the Grand Canyon State.
The snapshot of the still-distant race has many encouraging signs for the 45th President, although sixteen percent of Arizona voters may still be undecided. Trump holds an eighty-point advantage within the Republican Party for the General Election, while Biden appears to only command a net sixty-seven points inside his own party. Independents, who are Arizona’s largest voting bloc, are split between the two candidates (37-34 Trump), and there are still a significant portion of those voters who are unsure about who they will vote for – if at all – in November’s crucial contest.
Noble Predictive Insights also released a poll of the Republican primary field, showing Trump with a commanding lead over any other competitors. Trump’s numbers in the November survey grew to 53% of the Republican electorate (up from 50% in July), while Governor Ron DeSantis lost three points (19% from 16%). Ambassador Nikki Haley doubled her standing from the July report, acquiring eight percent of the Arizona GOP field (from four percent in July). Vivek Ramaswamy remained at nine percent. This poll was fielded at the end of October, when former Republican contenders Mike Pence and Tim Scott were in the race; Pence pulled in three percent, and Scott, one percent.
In the press release announcing the results of this latest poll, David Byler, the Chief of Research for Noble Predictive Insights said, “An eight-point lead for Trump is striking, but not surprising. Poll averages have Trump ahead of Biden by about a point nationally – that’s a five point swing from the 2020 results. If Arizona – one of the most closely contested states of 2020 – also swung that much, we’d expect individual polls to give Trump a mid-to-high single-digit lead. That’s exactly what our poll – and other recent surveys – have shown.”
The Noble Predictive Insights poll tracks what other recent surveys have telegraphed about the state of the General Election in Arizona: Trump does appear to have a lead over Biden in the state. The latest New York Times / Siena College poll has Trump up by five in Arizona in a head-to-head match-up (49-49 with 603 Registered Voters). Emerson College has the former President leading by two points with a set of polls of both “Likely” and “Registered” voters. And Morning Consult has Trump up four points (46-42 with 800 Registered Voters).
The poll from Noble Predictive Insights computed from 1,010 registered Arizona voters and took placed between October 25-31.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
