By Daniel Stefanski |
Arizonans may be ready to do an about-face on a candidate for President of the United States if recent polls are any indication of next year’s results in the November 2024 General Election.
On Tuesday, Noble Predictive Insights released a poll, showing that former President Donald J. Trump has an eight-point lead over current President Joe Biden in the Grand Canyon State.
The snapshot of the still-distant race has many encouraging signs for the 45th President, although sixteen percent of Arizona voters may still be undecided. Trump holds an eighty-point advantage within the Republican Party for the General Election, while Biden appears to only command a net sixty-seven points inside his own party. Independents, who are Arizona’s largest voting bloc, are split between the two candidates (37-34 Trump), and there are still a significant portion of those voters who are unsure about who they will vote for – if at all – in November’s crucial contest.
Noble Predictive Insights also released a poll of the Republican primary field, showing Trump with a commanding lead over any other competitors. Trump’s numbers in the November survey grew to 53% of the Republican electorate (up from 50% in July), while Governor Ron DeSantis lost three points (19% from 16%). Ambassador Nikki Haley doubled her standing from the July report, acquiring eight percent of the Arizona GOP field (from four percent in July). Vivek Ramaswamy remained at nine percent. This poll was fielded at the end of October, when former Republican contenders Mike Pence and Tim Scott were in the race; Pence pulled in three percent, and Scott, one percent.
In the press release announcing the results of this latest poll, David Byler, the Chief of Research for Noble Predictive Insights said, “An eight-point lead for Trump is striking, but not surprising. Poll averages have Trump ahead of Biden by about a point nationally – that’s a five point swing from the 2020 results. If Arizona – one of the most closely contested states of 2020 – also swung that much, we’d expect individual polls to give Trump a mid-to-high single-digit lead. That’s exactly what our poll – and other recent surveys – have shown.”
The Noble Predictive Insights poll tracks what other recent surveys have telegraphed about the state of the General Election in Arizona: Trump does appear to have a lead over Biden in the state. The latest New York Times / Siena College poll has Trump up by five in Arizona in a head-to-head match-up (49-49 with 603 Registered Voters). Emerson College has the former President leading by two points with a set of polls of both “Likely” and “Registered” voters. And Morning Consult has Trump up four points (46-42 with 800 Registered Voters).
The poll from Noble Predictive Insights computed from 1,010 registered Arizona voters and took placed between October 25-31.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
