by Matthew Holloway | Aug 26, 2024 | Economy, News
By Matthew Holloway |
The U.S. Department of Labor revealed, as part of its preliminary annual benchmark revisions to national nonfarm payroll figures, that the department’s initial job creation numbers were overestimated by as much as 30%. Approximately 818,000 fewer jobs than the figure of 2.9 million touted by the Biden administration were actually created.
As reported by Forbes, the metrics taken from March 2023 to March 2024 estimated by the Deptartment of Labor at 2.9 million for the year, or 242,000 per month on average, were reduced to 174,000 per month or approximately 2.08 million.
Joint Economic Committee Vice Chairman Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ) said in a statement, “This significant downward revision from BLS confirms what we’ve known since January 2021: that the U.S. economy is much weaker than President Biden and Vice President Harris have been selling.”
“This administration’s excessive spending, outrageous tax hikes, and burdensome regulations added over the last 3.5 years have made life much more difficult for American families than before the pandemic. Yet Biden and Harris have continued to peddle the narrative that the economy is robust because of ‘record-breaking’ job growth. Now, we know that the job gain estimates last year were notably overstated by more than 800,000 in yet another example of how badly the Biden-Harris administration has failed the American people.”
According to the announcement, the preliminary estimate of the upcoming annual benchmark revision is part of usual practice within the department and revisions are common. Another such revision took the Biden administration by surprise in 2022 when the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia corrected the estimate for the Second Quarter that year from an estimated one million down to just 10,500 jobs per The Post Millennial.
Despite past experience with the fickle nature of federal jobs estimates however, in an election year, President Joe Biden has repeatedly boasted his administration’s job creation.
Just a day before the announcement, he posted to X, “Since Vice President Harris and I took office, our economy has created nearly 16 million jobs,” adding, “Average unemployment under our administration has been lower than during any administration in 50 years.” On April 5th, he wrote that the erroneous job report marked “another chapter in America’s comeback. With the report of 303,000 new jobs in March, we’ve passed the milestone of 15 million jobs created since I took office. That’s 15 million more people who have the dignity and respect that comes with a paycheck.”
Reporting from CNBC confirmed that the downward revision of -0.5 percent is the largest in fifteen years, the last occurring on the tail end of the 08’-09’ recession. Chief economist at LPL Financial Jeffrey Roach told the outlet, “The labor market appears weaker than originally reported. A deteriorating labor market will allow the Fed to highlight both sides of the dual mandate and investors should expect the Fed to prepare markets for a cut at the September meeting.”
The most heavily impacted sectors of the economy were professional and business services that saw a heavy revision down of 358,000 jobs followed by the badly struggling leisure and hospitality industry, which was revised down by 150,000 and has suffered severely under inflationary burdens and short-staffing. Manufacturing jobs took a heavy hit with a downward revision of 115,000 jobs along with trade, transportation, and utilities taking a hit to the tune of 104,000 jobs.
On April 4th, Biden specifically boasted about creating “Nearly 800,000 new manufacturing jobs.” The Bureau of Labor Statistics revision revealed this was overblown by at least an eighth.
Despite the massive, heavily, and repeatedly boasted overestimation, White House economist Jared Bernstein strained to maintain the Biden administration narrative in a statement writing, “This preliminary estimate doesn’t change the fact that the jobs recovery has been and remains historically strong, delivering solid job and wage gains, strong consumer spending, and record small business creation.”
Economists at Goldman Sachs told the outlet later that they theorize the Bureau of Labor Statistics, “may have overstated the revisions by as much as half a million,” CNBC wrote. The report added, “The firm said undocumented immigrants who now are not in the unemployment system but were listed initially as employed amounted for some of the discrepancy.”
Goldman Sachs economist Ronald Walker said that the revision is likely “erroneous” and “misleading,” according to Forbes.
Following the report Wednesday, President Donald Trump took to TruthSocial expressing outrage and suggesting the Biden-Harris administration inflated the job statistics for political benefit.
He wrote:
“MASSIVE SCANDAL! The Harris-Biden Administration has been caught fraudulently manipulating Job Statistics to hide the true extent of the Economic Ruin they have inflicted upon America. New Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the Administration PADDED THE NUMBERS with an extra 818,000 Jobs that DO NOT EXIST, AND NEVER DID. The real Numbers are much worse than that and, if Comrade Kamala gets another four years, millions more Jobs will VANISH overnight, and Inflation will completely destroy our Country. YOUR LIFE SAVINGS WILL BE WIPED OUT. With a TRUMP VICTORY, we will once again have the Greatest Economy in History. MAGA2024!”
The final benchmark revision is set to be published by the Department of Labor in February 2025.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
by Staff Reporter | Aug 26, 2024 | Economy, News
By Staff Reporter |
One of the lawmakers responsible for the state’s historic income and small business tax reduction law is key to maintaining Republican control of the Arizona Senate.
State Senator J.D. Mesnard is running for re-election to Arizona Legislative District 13, which covers Chandler, Gilbert, and Sun Lakes in the East Valley of the Phoenix-metro area. Mesnard first entered the state legislature in January 2011 in the Arizona House of Representatives, and he served eight years in that chamber, including two years as the Speaker of the House. In November 2018, after being termed out of the House, Mesnard won his election to the state Senate.
Over his time in the Arizona Legislature, Mesnard has proven himself to be one of the top fiscal responsibility hawks in either chamber. On his campaign website, he addresses his thoughts on this issue, writing, “I support keeping taxes as low as possible, and we can’t have low taxes with reckless government spending. The fact is, the more government spends, the more we pay for it in higher taxes and/or saddle future generations with unsustainable debt. That doesn’t mean that all government spending is bad. For instance, funding public safety, a quality education system, and infrastructure are all necessary public goods. But I also believe that state government should follow the same financial guidelines that any responsible individual or family would follow: spend only what’s necessary, don’t rack up debt, invest in your learning, save for the future, and when times get tough, find responsible ways to trim.”
In 2021, Mesnard was responsible for a historic tax reform proposal that made its way through the Arizona Legislature and into law – SB 1828. This legislation ushered in a flat tax on individual incomes of Arizonans.
Mesnard was also the author of SB 1783, which lowered taxes on small businesses. The bill passed the state legislature and was signed by then-Republican Governor Doug Ducey.
After signing the bill into law in July 2021, Ducey recognized Mesnard for his efforts, when he said, “This tax cut will keep Arizona competitive for small businesses already operating here and new businesses flocking here every day. After a year as tough as the last, we should not be raising taxes on our small businesses — we should be cutting their taxes. That’s exactly what Senate Bill 1783 does. Arizona has now passed the largest tax cut in state history and will have the lowest flat tax in the country. My thanks go out to Senator J.D. Mesnard and Representative Ben Toma for their leadership on this issue.”
Mesnard added, “Small businesses are the backbone of our economy and integral to the future success of our state. Small businesses should be able to grow and reinvest in themselves without being forced to pay astronomical taxes. Rather, government should get out of the way so that they can thrive. That’s why I’m so grateful for the support of Governor Ducey and my colleagues in the Legislature.”
Two staunch free-market advocates Tim Phillips (President of Americans for Prosperity) and Grover Norquist (President of Americans for Tax Reform) wrote a piece in Newsweek, praising the accomplished feat of the Arizona Legislature, spearheaded by Mesnard, and Ducey. They stated, “Arizona, on the other hand, provides a good example: lower the tax rates to let people keep more of what they earn and invest in what they care about most. Limit government spending to grow no faster than the incomes of the citizens who pay the taxes. Create a magnet for job-creating investment and hardworking Americans who simply wish to be left alone to work hard, take care of their families and support their communities.”
Phillips and Norquist put the finishing flourish on their thoughts by saying, “The Arizona reform is a positive model and one that should be followed by other states and the federal government.”
When the Arizona Supreme Court gave the green light for these tax reforms to go into effect in a highly anticipated ruling, Arizona Free Enterprise President Scot Mussi said, “Today’s decision from the Arizona Supreme Court is a big win for taxpayers in our state. The legislature passed historic tax cuts last year that benefit all Arizona taxpayers. It’s time for Invest in Arizona and out-of-state special interest groups to accept this reality and stop making a farce of the referendum process.”
Mesnard touted the progress of his historic legislation in a campaign newsletter in January 2023, saying, “The historic tax reform that I championed in 2021 is now in effect for income earned this year – a full year ahead of schedule thanks to strong government revenues. Valued at more than $2 billion, this reform reduced individual tax rates to 2.5%, resulting in a tax cut for every single Arizona family and Arizona having the lowest flat tax in the nation.”
The east valley lawmaker added, “Depending on your tax decisions, if you choose to lower your withholding rates this year, you will be able to keep more of your own hard-earned dollars with each paycheck that hits your checking account. That will help take some of the edge off sticker shock at the grocery store.”
According to the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission, Legislative District 13 is one of the most competitive in the state, with a 1.6% vote spread between Republicans and Democrats in the past nine statewide elections. In those contests, Republicans have won five times, compared to four for Democrats.
Mesnard will be facing off against Democrat nominee, Sharon Winters, in the November General Election. On his website, Mesnard asks voters to give him another term in the state senate, writing, “Now we face historic economic challenges that require someone with the right experience and a track record of success to navigate. That’s why I need your vote. Let me continue using my diverse background, which includes husband (to a registered nurse), father, professor and small business owner, with master’s degrees in business and public administration, to keep delivering results for you.”
AZ Free News is your #1 source for Arizona news and politics. You can send us news tips using this link.
by Daniel Stefanski | Aug 25, 2024 | News
By Daniel Stefanski |
The Arizona Supreme Court may have rendered a significant blow to the future of a key ballot measure for the upcoming General Election.
On Friday, the Arizona Supreme Court issued an order in Smith v. Fontes, which was a challenge over the Make Elections Fair Arizona Act (Proposition 140). The court ruled that Prop 140 “will appear on the ballot, assuming ballots are indeed printed in the early morning hours of August 23.” However, the state’s high court projected that if a majority of its justices were to later “disqualif[y] the Initiative, the court should issue an injunction precluding any votes for the measure from being counted.”
The issue at hand involves a challenge to the signatures submitted to the Arizona Secretary of State by the committee supportive of the ballot measure. The parties contesting the submission have argued that there are 40,000 duplicative signatures in the batch, which, if discarded, would bring the initiative under the minimum number required for placement on the ballot.
Proposition 140 is an attempt from the Make Elections Fair PAC to remake the Arizona elections systems through this constitutional amendment on the ballot.
“I am grateful for this thoughtful decision from the Arizona Supreme Court,” said Scot Mussi, President of the Arizona Free Enterprise Club. “At no time did the trial court judge or the committee in favor of the initiative provide evidence as to why these signatures were not duplicates, but instead relied on a strategy of obstruction to run out the clock. The lateness of this challenge did not have to be the case if the lower court had only adhered to the Supreme Court’s earlier directive for all duplicates to be removed from the qualifying count. For any ballot measure – but especially one that would fundamentally transform our elections systems – Arizonans deserve complete confidence that our courts are applying all laws fairly and justly.”
Mussi added, “This isn’t a debate about dubious matches or concerns of same family members with the same name being confused as a duplicate. All the duplicates submitted to be removed were exact name and address matches that aligned with what was on the voter file. Under state law, you are only allowed to sign a petition once, so they should have been removed. Instead, thousands of people were allowed to sign the initiative petition sheets multiple times, and those signatures were counted.”
In its order, the Court wrote, “There is no statutory directive that a court resolve an election challenge like this one before the ballot printing deadline. Regardless, this Court, and indeed the trial court, has consistently endeavored to resolve initiative challenges before the ballot printing deadline… But the courts’ role is to dispense justice. Courts cannot be forced to rule rashly to meet a ballot printing deadline or provide the parties with certainty.”
According to the Arizona Free Enterprise Club, this measure “is seeking to enact a California-style election scheme built around ranked choice voting and jungle primaries.” On the other hand, an advocate for the Make Elections Fair Act recently maintained that Prop 140 “represents an opportunity to improve both our elections and our state government.”
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Staff Reporter | Aug 25, 2024 | News
By Staff Reporter |
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in favor of Arizona’s requirement for proof of citizenship when registering to vote, in part.
In a response issued Thursday to an emergency stay application from Arizona House and Senate GOP leadership, the Supreme Court narrowly overruled the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals order against Arizona’s law requiring proof of citizenship for state voter registration forms.
Federal law doesn’t require proof of citizenship in order to vote in federal elections. The Supreme Court ruled in 2013 that the National Voting Rights Act (NVRA) prohibits Arizona from requiring proof of citizenship from voters registering with the federal voter registration form.
The order granted the application for stay in part and denied it in part, allowing the state to temporarily enforce its law denying voter registrations lacking proof of citizenship, even for federal elections, pending a court ruling.
“The district court’s May 2, 2024 judgment is stayed only to the extent it enjoins enforcement of Ariz. Rev. Stat. Ann. § 16-121.01(C) (2023) pending disposition of the appeals in the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit and disposition of a petition for a writ of certiorari, if any such writ is timely sought. Should certiorari be denied, this stay shall terminate automatically. In the event certiorari is granted, the stay shall terminate upon the sending down of the judgment of this Court. The application is denied as to Ariz. Rev. Stat. Ann. §§ 16-121.01(E) and 16-127(A).”
Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, and Neil Gorsuch said they would grant the application in full, while Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, Amy Coney Barrett, and Ketanji Brown Jackson said they would deny it in full.
Earlier this month, and less than two weeks after an initial ruling, the Ninth Circuit reversed another panel within the court allowing the law to go into effect.
The Ninth Circuit said that the requirement of proof of citizenship would “upset the status quo” by altering voter registration rules too close to this year’s elections, an “injustice” for both voters and election officials.
The court also said that the proof of citizenship requirement improperly conflicted with the Elections Procedures Manual.
“All Arizonans must now navigate an arcane web of shifting and confusing rules that will without a doubt dissuade some who are otherwise eligible and willing from exercising the fundamental right to vote,” said the court.
Per the Secretary of State’s latest estimates, there are over 40,000 federal-only voters in the state.
In a partial statement, Arizona Senate Republicans said the partial order was a major victory. The caucus said they would issue an official statement at a later date.
“The order reverses the liberally-biased Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruling from August 1, which momentarily blocked our laws intended to safeguard against those living in our country illegally from influencing the outcome of our elections,” said the Arizona Senate Republicans. “Only US citizens should have the privilege of casting a ballot!”
AZ Free News is your #1 source for Arizona news and politics. You can send us news tips using this link.
by Staff Reporter | Aug 24, 2024 | News
By Staff Reporter |
A man wanted for multiple offenses was arrested Thursday over threatening to assassinate Donald Trump during his visit.
Ronald Lee Syvrud, 66, had multiple active warrants: failing to register as a sex offender, a DUI and failure to appear, and a hit and run. Syvrud was added to Wisconsin’s sex offender registry over 20 years ago for sexual assault of a child. Adding to those crimes, Syvrud has been arrested for issuing several threats against Trump.
Under the name “Rudy Lee,” Syvrud posted on Facebook that he planned to shoot Trump with a revolver while the presidential candidate traveled through Cochise County as part of his two-day visit.
The Post Millennial discovered the one post and Syvrud’s several aliased social media accounts, but the Cochise County Sheriff’s Office said in its press release that there was another post containing a threat. Syvrud’s Facebook profile has since been deleted.
“Trump is going through here tomorrow and going to Naco, AZ to the port of entry to Mexico. There’s a bar right there called the Gay 90s. Noooo. It’s not a gay bar. Dawn and I will be there early. I bought a scope for my 44 revolver. Unlike that dweeb that missed. I won’t. Maybe I’m joking. Or am I. Wink, wink.”
In earlier posts, Syvrud said he’d wished Trump’s would-be assassin, Thomas Matthew Crooks, hadn’t missed. Syvrud would later claim the assassination was faked.
“I give the shooter an A- for effort. Would have gotten an A+ if he succeeded,” said Syvrud. “By the way, the kid was a registered Republican. Got to love it.”
The only reason Trump didn’t die from Crooks’ shot at last month’s rally was because he turned his head for an instant to look up at a screen by the crowd. One of the rally attendees died from a gunshot wound, and two others besides Trump were injured.
It remains unclear why the rooftop on which Crooks lied with a perfect line of sight to Trump wasn’t secured during the rally.
Earlier this week, Trump hosted his first outdoor rally since the attempt on his life. The presidential candidate spoke behind bulletproof glass.
Syvrud’s other political posts focused on his dislike for the Republican Party as a whole.
The Cochise County Sheriff’s Office (CCSO) apprehended Syvrud within hours of notifying the public that they were looking for him.
CCSO had issued a statement on Tuesday that Syvrud was apprehended without incident.
“As part of the operations plan in place for the visit of candidate Donald Trump on today’s date, locating this subject was a priority. Intelligence developed led to a possible location in the St. David area and multiple units deployed to the location,” stated CCSO. “At approximately 2:16 pm, units on the scene observed the suspect traveling outside of the identified location, and a felony stop was conducted. Syvrud was taken into custody without further incident at approximately 2:30 pm.”
Trump’s Thursday visit consisted of a press conference at the border in Cochise County. Trump told reporters that he wasn’t made aware of the assassination threat prior to his heading to Arizona, let alone his Thursday outing along the border.
AZ Free News is your #1 source for Arizona news and politics. You can send us news tips using this link.
by Staff Reporter | Aug 24, 2024 | Economy, News
By Staff Reporter |
Another one of Arizona’s middle-of-the-road legislative districts may be represented by a liberal after November’s General Election if enough Democrats and left-leaning independents have their say.
Judy Schwiebert, a Democrat, is running for the Arizona State Senate in Legislative District 2. Schwiebert currently serves as a State Representative for the district. She announced for the seat in June 2023, saying that “we need people who will work together to focus on the toughest challenges facing Arizonans including our teacher, affordable housing, and water shortage crises.”
Schwiebert posted more than 1,600 signatures at the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office earlier this spring to qualify for the ballot.
The Democrat legislator has been endorsed by several left-leaning organizations, including National Organization for Women Arizona PAC, Arizona Education Association, Moms Demand Action, Save Our Schools Arizona, Arizona List, Jane Fonda Climate PAC, the Grand Canyon Chapter of the Sierra Club, Emily’s List, Moms Fed Up, and Human Rights Campaign PAC.
Schwiebert has been a vote for her party’s efforts to stand against border security measures. In 2021, she voted against HCR 2029, which commended the courage of the United States Border Patrol and recognized the role they play in safeguarding Arizona and the U.S. She also co-sponsored HB 2604 in 2023, which would permit the Arizona Department of Transportation to issue a driver’s license or nonoperating ID to a person without legal status in the United States.
This year, she voted against SCR 1042, which proclaimed the legislature’s support for the people and government of Texas in its effort to secure our nation’s southern border.” More recently, Schwiebert refused to support a legislative effort to refer a border security measure to the ballot in this November’s General Election – HCR 2060, voting against the bill when it was considered by her chamber. The proposal, if passed by voters in the fall, would empower local law enforcement to better secure their communities from the increasing calamities from the border crisis.
It’s not just border issues where Schwiebert is showing her true, liberal colors; it’s also the economy where she is demonstrating an inability to moderate to her district’s desires. In 2021, Schwiebert voted no on HB 2113, which would have increased the 25% of allowed charitable deductions in accordance with the average annual change in the metropolitan Phoenix CPI. In 2022, she voted against HCM 2004, which urged Congress to oppose the reporting requirements included in the Biden administration tax increase proposal.
Also in 2022, Schwiebert opposed HB 2389 as one of nine members to vote against changing the time period from one year to six months for an agency that the legislature has granted a one-time rulemaking exemption to review a rule adopted by an agency to determine whether the rule should be amended or repealed. That same year, she voted against creating a TPT exemption for the sale of all machinery and equipment, including off-highway vehicles, utilized for commercial agricultural purposes.
This year, Schwiebert opposed SB 1370, which was coined “the lemonade stand bill.” This legislation exempted a minor or a person who has not graduated from high school from the requirement to obtain a TPT license and pay TPT, use tax, and local excise taxes, if the person’s business gross proceeds of sales or gross income is less than $10,000 per calendar year.
Schwiebert’s leftist leanings didn’t stop with the border and economy. She has a number of votes and bill sponsorships that show her being in lockstep with the Democrats on some of their most radical ideas. In 2023, she co-sponsored HB 2653, which would have established that “restaurants and other food service establishments in the state may only serve water and disposable straws to customers on request.” She also co-sponsored HB 2068, which would have repealed the designation of school sports by biological sex.
Additionally in 2023, Schwiebert voted no on SB 1028, which would have prohibited a person or business from engaging in an adult cabaret performance on public property or in a location where the performance could be viewed by a minor. In this most-recent legislative session (2024), she voted against HB 2591, which would have prohibited a public power entity or public service corporation from entering into contract with a person or company that uses forced labor or oppressive child labor.
Arizona Legislative District 2 is one of the most competitive in the state, with a 3.8% vote spread in the past nine statewide elections. It is very winnable for Republicans, however, as the party has emerged victorious in six out of those nine elections. The district covers a large portion of northcentral Phoenix.
Schwiebert ran unopposed in the July primary election for Democrats. She is facing off against the winner of the district’s Republican primary contest for state senator, incumbent Shawnna Bolick.
AZ Free News is your #1 source for Arizona news and politics. You can send us news tips using this link.
