by Sergio Arellano | Jul 22, 2026 | Opinion
By Sergio Arellano |
The prediction markets say Katie Hobbs is a heavy favorite. The pundits agree. I’ve heard long odds before — I heard them in combat, and I heard them in January when I ran for Party Chair. Here’s what the gamblers and pundits are missing.
This election comes down to one thing: who shows up. And I like our side of that math.
Republicans are the largest voting bloc in Arizona — 1.54 million strong, per the Secretary of State, a 321,000-voter lead over the Democrats. That lead has grown by more than 170,000 voters since 2022: we’ve added nearly 110,000 registrants while Democrats have lost more than 60,000. Their own DNC chair admits Democrats have “been getting our butts kicked” on registration — his words — shedding 2.1 million voters nationwide from 2020 to 2024. He’s right.
Republicans are the most reliable midterm voters in this state — we show up, every cycle, like clockwork. Independents don’t, not in midterms, and 2026 has no presidential race and no Senate race. Governor is the top of the ballot. Hobbs’s entire polling lead is parked with the voters least likely to vote. Ours is built on the voters most likely to show. Monster Republican turnout, uninspiring veto queen, low-turnout independent voters — and her lead evaporates.
And this time, no one has to guess whether their vote counts. The days of Republicans sitting home because they don’t trust the process are over. The RNC and AZGOP already have boots on the ground — Arizona is a priority state in the RNC’s multimillion-dollar election integrity operation, with a state director in place and thousands of trained poll workers, poll watchers, and observers being recruited right now. Eyes and ears on every vote cast and every vote counted. And because we’ve learned the Left doesn’t just campaign — they litigate — our attorneys are on offense: the RNC’s legal team is waging more than 130 election integrity lawsuits across the country, including here at home, where we’ve gone to court to defend Arizona’s early-ballot list maintenance laws and hold Secretary Fontes accountable. Leftist lawfare doesn’t get a free shot at this election. Not on my watch.
Trust the process, bank your ballot early, bring your neighbor. That’s the whole playbook.
Meanwhile, look at the incumbent. Hobbs’s disapproval has climbed to 43% and rising. Most Arizonans have never once said the state is on the right track under her. She squeaked by in 2022 by 17,117 votes. And she’ll spend this fall dodging questions about four separate pay-to-play inquiries — including a criminal probe by her own Party’s attorney general, whose investigators have asked to interview her as they close out a two-year investigation. Hobbs is uncomfortable talking about it. She’s nervous. She vetoed transparency legislation. Twice. Arizonans notice.
Andy Biggs doesn’t have her problems. He has a united party standing fully behind its nominee, the biggest voter bloc in Arizona, and a turnout machine that’s already running.
The gambling markets say Katie Hobbs. I’m the chairman of 1.5 million people who’d like to say otherwise. A lot of people are about to learn that they shouldn’t gamble against Arizona voters.
Sergio Arellano serves as Chairman of the Arizona Republican Party.
by Sergio Arellano | May 18, 2021 | Opinion
By Sergio Arellano |
Virtually since it was first announced, the effort by the Arizona State Senate to audit the results of the November general election in Arizona’s largest County has been mocked or vilified by members of the media and assorted partisan figures. There is little doubt that their initial attacks were designed to thwart an audit, and there is little doubt that most of the effort since then has been to discredit the process and its participants to the maximum degree possible. When I talk to political people, there is a consensus that this has been a deliberate sabotage in an effort to discredit any potential findings before they are disclosed. “Convince the voters in advance that the whole thing is a joke, and they won’t believe it if something real is turned up by the audit.” said one to me recently.
The entire state would be well served if everyone would take a deep breath, refrain from turning the effort into a partisan circus, and waited for any findings and supporting evidence.
In the meantime, let’s give credit where credit is due, to Senate President Karen Fann and State Senator Warren Petersen, both of whom continue to make themselves available to a media that is looking to undercut them, while providing reasoned answers in measured tones.
As someone who has dealt with a hostile media, I know how difficult it is to not get sucked into the insults and childish behavior. But that is often a tactic used by reporters who know that their own behavior will not be a part of the story, only the responses to their behavior. So they goad and wait, and too many elected officials fall for it. As a result we have the public spectacle of Republicans firing away at other Republicans in an increasingly personal way, just like the media wants.
Fann and Petersen know when to respond and how, and the points they make are generally fair and on target. The Senate has a responsibility and is acting on that responsibility. Opposition is largely partisan in origin and passionate objections to legitimate concerns come mostly from those who spent years insisting that Congress spends tens of millions of dollars investigating a Russia hoax that they got daily updates on from their MSNBC shows. Fann and Petersen recognize this hypocrisy and have kept focused on the audit itself, the need to do it right, and the importance of getting as many facts gathered as possible before conclusions are reached.
The audit will show that everything was largely done right, or it will show meaningful problems or weaknesses in systems that need to be corrected. Both outcomes are victories for Arizona voters, even though some will claim victory and insist it is a defeat for others. If all was well then that’s obviously good news. If corrections need to be made, then the fact that they were identified and can be fixed for future elections is also good news. We all benefit from a system that strives for perfection and is checked for improvements.
If you want Election Integrity, accurate and legitimate elections, and a process that every voter can largely trust, then you’re on the side of an accurate and professionally done audit that produces verifiable results. I for one, am more than willing to patiently wait for the process to work, and I’d encourage every Arizonan to do the same.
—
Sergio Arellano was born and raised in Tucson, AZ. He joined the Army at the age of 17 and served his country honorably as an Infantryman and Human Resources Specialist for a total of 10 and a half years before retiring from the military due to combat sustained injuries.
Sergio is a founding member of the Arizona International Consortium, the Santa Cruz County Elections Integrity Committee, and the first ever AZGOP Latino Coalition. Sergio is also credited with establishing Arizona’s first ever cultural exchange agreements between the Arizona Republican Party and some of Mexico’s prominent political parties.
