Maricopa County voters appear to be locked in with their support of a sales tax renewal for the November General Election.
Earlier this month, Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) released a poll to show that Maricopa County voters were overwhelmingly in support of Proposition 479.
Proposition 479 is a result of SB 1102, which was passed in 2023, requiring “that the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors call a countywide election for the continuation of the county transportation tax at least two years before the expiration of the tax, and shall conduct that election on a consolidated election date no less than one year before the expiration of the tax.”
The official title of the measure is the “Regional Strategic Transportation Infrastructure Investment Plan.”
If passed by Maricopa County voters, the revenues would be allocated in the following manner: “(a) 40.5 percent to freeways and other routes in the state highway system; (b) 37 percent to public transportation; and (c) 22.5 percent to arterial streets, intersection improvements and regional transportation infrastructure.”
According to the September survey released from NPI, Proposition 479 had 64 percent support from voters in August, compared to 18 percent opposition. Nineteen percent of voters were undecided about the question at hand.
The numbers for Proposition 479 are largely unchanged from two previous polls, dating back to July 2023. Opposition to the measure has only increased by a single percentage point since July 2023, while support has increased by eight percent during that same time frame.
“Maricopa County voters have had their minds made up for a year on this proposition – campaigns for it have clearly worked, and Prop 479 is on the fast track to victory in November,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO.
After the Arizona Legislature passed a compromise for this proposal in July 2023, Republican Senate President Warren Petersen claimed victory, calling SB 1102 “the most conservative transportation plan in our state’s history.” He added, “The guardrails, taxpayer protections and funding allocations in the text of this bill reflect the priorities of voters, to reinvest their tax dollars in the transportation modes they use most.”
Democrat Governor Katie Hobbs, who signed the compromise, was diplomatic in her statement, saying, “Today, bipartisan leaders invested in the future of Arizona families, businesses, and communities. The passage of the Prop 400 ballot measure will secure the economic future of our state and create hundreds of thousands of good-paying jobs for Arizonans. I am glad we were able to put politics aside and do what is right for Arizona.”
Members of the Arizona Freedom Caucus were adamantly opposed to the bill as it was released and approved. After the Prop 400 plan passed through the Arizona Legislature, the Freedom Caucus tweeted, “Legislative conservatives near unanimously opposed this horrible bill. Conservative watchdog groups unanimously opposed it. The bill may have been better than the communists at @MAGregion’s horrific plan, but that’s a ludicrously low bar for success. This bill was antithetical to conservatism.”
The breakthrough on the Prop 400 compromise between Republicans and Democrats in Arizona’s divided government took place after Governor Hobbs vetoed a Republican proposal earlier that summer. At that time, Hobbs stated, “I just vetoed the partisan Prop 400 bill that fails to adequately support Arizona’s economic growth and does nothing to attract new business or create good-paying jobs.”
In May 2023, the governor had created unrest over ongoing negotiations, allegedly sending out a tweet that highlighted her fight with Republicans at the Legislature at the same time she was meeting with Senate President Warren Petersen.
Petersen stressed the importance of the agreed-upon bill, asserting that officials had “secured a good, responsible product for the citizens of Arizona to consider in 2024, giving voters the option to enhance critical infrastructure that our entire state relies upon.”
This NPI poll took place between August 12-16 with just over 1,000 registered Arizona voters, including 595 individuals in Maricopa County.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
As a border state, Arizona has confronted the consequences of illegal immigration for decades. A not-often-discussed constitutional loophole is making this challenge perpetually harder to resolve.
Counting illegal aliens as citizens, as outlined in the 14th Amendment, leads to the over-allocation of seats to the dominant party in districts with large illegal populations. Democrats benefit from this, which may be why they don’t seem interested in solving the border crisis.
To analyze this, we can examine the districts where there is a high concentration of illegal immigrants and compare the number of registered voters in those districts to the ones where there are very few illegal immigrants. The districts with more illegal immigrants will likely have a significantly lower number of total voters compared to the ones with fewer illegal immigrants.
This is covered in detail in Howard Husock’s Citizenship and Congressional Districting in National Affairs-Fall 2023. He shows how congressional district voting totals vary widely for districts that are supposed to be equal, as in equal representation but aren’t.
In the 2022 Congressional Election, Jim Jordan’s Ohio 4th District had 290,156 votes, with 69.2% in his favor, while Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s New York 14th District had 118,062 votes, with 70.6% supporting her. Interestingly, Jordan’s district had 146% more votes cast than AOC’s, despite being equal in size. It’s interesting to note that Jordan’s district is 99.1% U.S. citizens, and AOC’s is only 76.4% U.S. citizens (source: Data USA).
How is this possible? Due to the drafting of both the U.S. Constitution and the 14th Amendment, the courts have determined that for the apportionment of the U.S. House of Representatives, we must count all the “persons” residing in a state. The drafters likely had no idea that their words would be used to give political power to individuals who are not citizens and, in many cases, are breaking the law by even being in the U.S. Nothing short of a constitutional amendment will solve this problem on a federal level.
What about the states?
Arizona may adopt counting resident U.S. citizens for apportioning districts for state offices. Most states count all persons for apportioning state legislatures, including illegal immigrants, which can significantly affect seat allocation. By counting only residents of the U.S., Arizona could have a more accurate representation.
In the 2022 Arizona State Senate election, Republicans won 17 out of 32 districts, while Democrats won 15. If the theory is correct, Democrat districts should average a significantly lower number of total votes than Republican districts because most illegal aliens tend to live in Democrat majority districts. They are counted in the census, even though they are not U.S. citizens, and therefore, they are counted for purposes of apportionment.
In fact, the differences in voting population have been proven. The Democrat-winning districts have an average number of voters of 54,310, with a range of 25,626-123,321 total voters. The Republican-winning districts have an average total number of voters of 91,260, with a range of 59,471 to 133,510 total voters. The overall average total number of voters in a state senate district is 78,123. The average Republican-won district’s total number of votes is 68% greater than the average Democrat-won district’s total number of votes. These figures are prima facie proof of the theory.
Two U.S. Supreme Court decisions are of particular interest to state reapportionment. In 2016, the court decided Evenwel v. Abbott,which found a state (Texas) could not be forced to use a method, in this case voter-eligible population, to apportion its state legislative seats. The court ruled that the total population of persons was an acceptable method as it is the same method used by the U.S. House of Representatives and certainly met the court’s one-person, one-vote standard articulated in Reynolds v. Simms (1964).
In the Evenwel case, the plaintiffs failed to prove that the state’s method of counting the total population of persons violated the one person, one vote principle. The court clarified that the total population of persons was not the only basis for apportionment. Justice Ginsburg’s opinion indicated that it may not be the only method the court would accept for state legislative apportionment. Justice Alito’s concurrence vehemently disagreed with the Solicitor General’s argument that state legislative districts must be equal in total population, even if it resulted in grossly unequal districts in the number of eligible voters, particularly because of the illegal alien concentration in certain parts of the state. Alito called it a meretricious argument, “apparently attractive but having in reality no value or integrity-according to Oxford Languages.”
In 1966, the Court decided in Burns v. Richardson that Hawaii’s apportionment based on registered voters was valid. The state used registered voters because of the large number of tourists and non-resident military members. The Court clarified that the equal protection clause doesn’t require using total population figures from the census. It suggested that in Hawaii’s case, the state-resident U.S. citizen population would be more appropriate. While the court allowed the use of registered voters, it indicated that state citizen population was the best method. The court also noted that the distribution of registered voters approximates the distribution of state citizens or another permissible population base.
Arizona may change its constitution to use the US resident population for apportionment in state offices. Other states should consider doing the same.
Glendale voters might soon have the future of a billion-dollar resort in their hands.
Worker Power Institute, a nonprofit and social welfare 501(c)(4) organization, announced that it had obtained the necessary signatures to refer the city’s and resort’s Government Property Lease Excise Tax (GPLET) arrangements to the ballot.
Over 5,500 signatures were collected, and both Glendale and Maricopa County notified parties that this referendum was eligible for the ballot. The 60-acre VAI Resort and Mattel Adventure Park is expected to be completed in 2024 and to add 1,800 jobs.
The Glendale City Council will now decide when its municipality’s voters will see this referendum on the ballot.
Before the news of the successful signature drive, Brendan Walsh, the Worker Power Institute’s Executive Director, said, “If there is one thing all developers hoping to build in Arizona should know, it’s that Arizona voters believe in fairness. And the unrestrained and unnecessary use of GPLETs is not playing fair. If developers want property tax breaks, then voters will want to see that they are getting real community benefits. I see the work we are doing as allowing voters the opportunity to have a say in how the cities they live in are built.”
GPLET agreements have been fairly common in the state – and increasingly controversial as more attention comes to these respective arrangements. Last year, the Arizona-based Goldwater Institute fought one of these episodes in the City of Phoenix with the Hubbard Street Group and plans for private real estate development.
As explained by Goldwater, “Utilizing the GPLET abatements provisions of Arizona law, the City has agreed to accept title to the Hubbard Project so that the property becomes ‘government property,’ and thus excluded from the tax rolls. Under this arrangement, the City then leases the property back to Hubbard, who controls and manages the property during the lease just as the developer would any other private business. Yet through use of the GPLET, Hubbard will pay no property taxes on the private development for eight years, while other Arizona taxpayers – in Phoenix and beyond – will be forced to shoulder the difference. At the end of the 8-year lease, the City conveys the property back to the developer. In other words, under this arrangement, private property is conveyed to the government while in reality being owned and operated by a private party for the sole purpose of evading property taxes that would otherwise be owed and to which other taxpayers are subject.”
The Goldwater Institute added, “This arrangement results in tax shifts from the private party receiving the subsidy to other taxpayers who do not. It also creates unfair competitive advantages for Hubbard, who can compete with similar businesses not only with its own resources but with those of Phoenix taxpayers.”
The differing GPLET agreements vary in size and length. While the Phoenix-Hubbard arrangement was for eight years and $7.9 million, the Glendale resort project is likely to be significantly larger. According to a report, “the previous agreement with the developer’s former owners had a valuation of $30 million in exchange for $240 million in tax revenue over the term of the incentives.” The term for Glendale would be 25 years.
The Worker Power Institute was previously credited with helping to take down the Arizona Coyotes’ move to Tempe and the proposed $2.1 billion entertainment district. In this rejected scenario, there appeared to be two GPLETs – one for eight years and one for 30 years, in order to make the hockey team’s move a reality.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
Independent voters are now the largest voting group in Arizona, toppling the Republican Party for the first time in years.
Secretary of State Adrian Fontes’ office advised ABC 15 of this change earlier this month, pending the upcoming publication of their quarterly voter registration report. Independent voters last outranked both the Republican and Democratic parties in 2016.
The most current data available on the secretary of state’s website, from April, registered over 1.43 million independent voters.
In two months, that number grew to surpass the leading number of Republican voters at the time, which was just over 1.44 million. Democratic voters totaled over 1.26 million. The “No Labels” party at the time had 17 voters total; the secretary of state’s office also disclosed that the party had grown to around 6,000.
Libertarian voters registered at over 33,300 in April.
Last year, the number of registered independent voters decreased from over 1.44 million in April to just over 1.4 million in the general election. Republican voters decreased from over 1.47 million to over 1.43 million; Democratic voters decreased from 1.33 million to 1.27 million.
At the time of the 2020 election, which had more registered voters than in April, there were over 1.35 million independent voters. Republicans had over 1.5 million registered voters, while Democrats had over 1.37 million.
The 2016 general election — which had over 815,600 less voters registered than the most recent registration counts — had over 1.21 million independent voters compared to over 1.23 million Republican voters and just over 1 million Democratic voters. Although the number of registered independent voters increased from May to November 2016, there were more to register as Republican during the same time frame.
The 2016 general election broke a two-year streak in which more voters registered as independents than anything else. Midway through former President Barack Obama’s second term, more registered as independents than Republicans. There were around 900,000 less registered voters at the time.
Ahead of last year’s midterm election, some candidates sought to appeal to the growing base of independents.
In this century, independents first outranked Democrats after the 2010 midterm election. In July 2011, registered independent voters (over 1 million) surpassed registered Democratic voters (over 999,000).
Independent voters have maintained that lead on Democratic voters since then — 12 years.
The shift in 2011 also marked the first session in which Republicans enjoyed their largest majority in the state legislature since 1981: 21 Republicans to 9 Democrats in the Senate, and 40 Republicans to 20 Democrats in the House. Since then, the majority has dwindled. This session, there’s a slim majority: 15 Republicans to 14 Democrats in the Senate, and 31 Republicans to 29 Democrats in the House.
Independent voters may vote in all primaries except presidential.
Corinne Murdock is a reporter for AZ Free News. Follow her latest on Twitter, or email tips to corinne@azfreenews.com.
Tucson voters delivered a resounding defeat to Mayor Regina Romero and her support of Proposition 412.
On Tuesday, results were released for the special election, showing Prop 412 receiving 28,084 (44.7%) votes in favor versus 34,712 (55.3%) votes in opposition. Voter turnout for the City of Tucson’s contest hovered around 21.69%.
Prop 412 would have granted “a franchise to Tucson Electric Power (TEP) Company for the purpose of providing electric transmission and distribution services within the City of Tucson for which the City of Tucson will receive a franchise fee and other consideration.” The “other consideration” would have come, in part, in the form of a “Community Resilience Fee” to fund Tucson’s Climate Action and Adaptation Plan, which was an effort to achieve “carbon neutrality for City operations by 2030.”
Mayor Romero, who had been one of the strongest proponents of Prop 412, released a statement after the results confirmed the worst: “TEP and the City put together a franchise agreement that tried to be responsive to the different needs our community was asking for, like undergrounding, investing in climate resiliency and creating EV infrastructure in public rights of way. I respect the voters’ decision not to approve.”
STATEMENT FROM TUCSON MAYOR REGINA ROMERO ON PROP 412 ELECTION RESULT:
"TEP and the City put together a franchise agreement that tried to be responsive to the different needs our community was asking for…
Arizona Corporation Commissioner Kevin Thompson, one of Arizona’s few Republican statewide officeholders at the moment, reacted to the news from southern Arizona, telling AZ Free News, “Tucson voters rightfully demonstrated they understood the ramifications of mixing political pet projects under the guise of essential utility contract service requirements. This is a good outcome for ratepayers and a step towards returning these important decisions to the Corporation Commission where they belong.”
Merissa Hamilton, a grassroots leader in Arizona, tweeted her analysis of the Tucson election result, writing, “This vote is significant because it was the Public’s chance to make their voice heard on Romero’s tyrannical climate action agenda.”
This vote is significant because it was the Public's chance to make their voice heard on Romero's tyrannical climate action agendahttps://t.co/o0cpLxODRH
— Merissa Hamilton 🗳 ⛽ 🗽🔥 (@merissahamilton) May 17, 2023
One of the main issues that caused contention over this proposal was the insertion of the community resilience fee of 0.75% of all applicable revenues of TEP – in addition to the 2.25% Franchise Fee. This new fee would have been collected and disbursed for “funding costs associated with the underground installation of new TEP Facilities or conversion to underground of existing TEP facilities currently installed overhead; and projects that support the City’s implementation of the City’s approved Climate Action and Adaptation Plan.” This fee picked up opposition from both sides of the political aisle.
The Pima County Republican Party had fiercely lobbied against Prop 412 and cheered on its defeat. In a Facebook post, the Party stated, “WE DID IT!! Thank you to our LD’s and our incredible volunteers. CONGRATULATIONS to every volunteer and every candidate who helped us fight this Marxist proposal.”
The community resilience charge hasn’t been the only fee that TEP is attempting to pass along to its Southern Arizona consumers. Earlier last year, TEP submitted an application to the Arizona Corporation Commission (ACC), proposing a rate increase of 11.8% to take effect no later than September 1, 2023. TEP informed the Commission that “the new rates are intended to result in an increase in retail revenues of approximately $136 million.” According to reports, TEP customers’ bills would increase more than $14 each month should the ACC sign off on the request.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
