by Ethan Faverino | Feb 14, 2026 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
The latest survey from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reveals that small business optimism in the U.S. dipped slightly at the start of 2026. The Small Business Optimism Index declined by just 0.2 points in January to 99.3, yet it remains above the 52-year average of 98.
Among the index’s 10 key components, 7 declined, while only 3 improved. The positive standout shift came in expectations for real sales volumes, which jumped by 6 points, with a net 16% of owners now anticipating stronger sales in the coming quarter.
However, uncertainty notably climbed, as the Uncertainty Index increased by 7 points to 91. Much of this rise stemmed from more owners expressing doubt about whether the current environment favors business expansion.
“While GDP is rising, small businesses are still waiting for noticeable economic growth,” stated NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Despite this, more owners are reporting better business health and anticipating higher sales.”
In Arizona and similar regions, a cautious mood persists, with many business owners hesitant to pursue expansion. NFIB Arizona State Director Chad Heinrich noted that ongoing tax-related uncertainties are adding to these concerns, while NFIB data shows taxes are the leading problem for 18% of business owners.
“The optimism index remains stable, but small business owners remain cautious about the future and whether it’s a good time to expand their operations,” explained Heinrich. “The limbo Main Street Arizonans find themselves in this tax season only exacerbates their uncertainty. Small business owners need tax conformity from policymakers now.”
A new addition to this month’s report, the Small Business Employment Index, registered 101.6 in January—down nearly a point from December but still 1.5 points above its historical average of 100 and marginally higher than the 2025 average. This suggests the labor market for small businesses remains relatively balanced.
According to the NFIB Monthly Jobs Report, overall business conditions showed improvement in owners’ self-assessments, with 14% now rating their operations as excellent (up 5 points) and fewer classifying them as only fair (down 7 points to 27%).
Investment activity picked up as 60% of owners reported capital expenditures over the past six months—the highest share since late 2023—mostly directed toward new equipment.
On the labor front, challenges eased somewhat, with businesses citing labor quality as their top issue; the share fell for the third straight month to 16%, and unfilled job openings dropped to 31% (still above the long-run norm).
Inflationary pressures linger, however, as 26% of owners reported raising prices in January, and 32% plan increases in the next few months.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Ethan Faverino | Nov 15, 2025 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined 0.6 points in October to 98.2 points. Despite the small decline, it remains above its 52-year historical average of 98. In a positive sign, the Uncertainty index dropped 12 points to 88, marking the lowest level this year.
NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said, “Optimism among small businesses declined slightly in October as owners report lower sales and reduced profits. Additionally, many firms are still navigating a labor shortage and want to hire but are having difficulty doing so, with labor quality being the top issue for Main Street.”
Labor challenges persisted, with a seasonally adjusted 32% of owners reporting unfilled job openings, unchanged for the second straight month, and the lowest since December 2020.
Labor quality was cited by 27% of owners as their single most important problem, up 9 points from September and the highest since November 2021, when it reached 29%. It ranked 11 points above taxes, the second-largest concern. Of the 56% of owners hiring or trying to hire, 88% reported little to no qualified applicants.
Sales and profits declined, as a net negative 13% of owners reported higher nominal sales over the past three months, down 6 points. Positive profit trends fell 9 points to a net negative 25%—the largest contributor to the Index decline.
Among those with lower profits, 33% blamed weaker sales, 16% noted rising material costs, and 9% pointed to both labor costs and price changes.
Pricing pressures eased slightly, with the net percentage of owners raising average selling prices falling from 24% to 21%, though it is still above the historical monthly average of 13%.
30% of small businesses plan to raise prices in the next three months, just down 1 point. An unadjusted 31% reported higher prices, while just 12% reported lower prices.
Inventory gains dropped 3 points to a net negative of 6%. 10% reported stock increases while 15% reported reductions. Supply chain disruptions were cited as the biggest reason for inventory problems, with 60% of owners saying it affected them to some extent.
Capital investments saw 55% of owners reporting outlays in the past six months. Among them, 36% spent on new equipment, 22% on vehicles, and 14% on facility improvements or expansions. 23% plan outlays in the six months.
20% of small business owners expect better conditions, the lowest since April, but well above the historical average of 4%. Only 13% view it as a good time to expand. Business health assessments shifted, with 12% rating their business as excellent, 51% good, 33% fair, and 4% poor.
“A reduction in sales and profits has certainly taken a toll on small business owners’ optimism,” NFIB State Director Chad Heinrich said. “Despite these challenges and the ongoing labor shortage, our members are resilient, with many still trying to create good-paying jobs for Arizonans.”
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Ethan Faverino | Oct 13, 2025 | Economy, News
By Ethan Faverino |
In a landmark victory for small businesses, Congress has made the 20% Small Business Tax Deduction, also known as Section 199A, a permanent qualified business deduction, ensuring long-term tax certainty for Main Street.
This critical provision allows small businesses to deduct up to 20% of their income, empowering mom-and-pop shops to grow, invest in their workforce, and play their part in giving back to the community.
The decision, signed into law by President Trump, averts a massive tax hike that would have impacted over 33 million small business owners nationwide at the end of 2025.
Making the Small Business Tax Deduction permanent changes the game for Main Street. The tax certainty provided by Congress ensures small businesses can thrive, hire more workers, and compete with larger corporations.
Since its introduction in 2017, the deduction has leveled the playing field for nine out of ten small businesses that file as pass-through entities. Recent NFIB surveys show growing confidence, with small business optimism reaching a five-month high.
The new tax law also includes pro-small business provisions, such as permanent extensions of the 2017 marginal tax rates, preventing up to a 4% tax hike for small businesses and employees.
Enhanced expense and depreciation rules under Section 179 and 168(k) enable business owners to confidently invest in growth, such as making large purchases. Additionally, increased reporting thresholds for IRS forms 1099-K, 1099-NEC, and 1099-MISC reduce paperwork burdens for businesses using platforms like Venmo or PayPal or engaging independent contractors.
The permanent estate tax exemption further supports owners looking to pass their businesses to the next generation or keep them locally owned.
National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) State Director Chad Heinrich said, “An NFIB-commissioned study by EY found that the Small Business Tax Deduction will increase Arizona’s economic activity by more than $1.4 billion annually, resulting in the creation of 26,000 jobs each year. That means more, good-paying jobs for hardworking Arizonans.”
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Jonathan Eberle | Aug 17, 2025 | Economy, News
By Jonathan Eberle |
Main Street confidence ticked upward in July, with the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rising 1.7 points to 100.3, edging above its long-term average for the first time in months. The lift was driven largely by more owners reporting better business conditions and viewing it as a good time to expand.
The latest figures, however, paint a mixed picture. While sentiment improved, NFIB’s Uncertainty Index climbed eight points to 97, and labor quality has re-emerged as the top challenge, cited by 21% of owners, the highest share since early spring.
Survey results show growing confidence in day-to-day operations. Thirteen percent of owners rated their business health as “excellent,” up five points from June, and 52% said it was “good,” up three points. Reports of “fair” or “poor” conditions declined. Owners’ outlook on the economy also improved: the net share expecting better business conditions jumped 14 points to 36%, well above historical norms. Sixteen percent said it is a good time to expand, up from 11% last month.
Even with the improved outlook, sales remain a point of concern. Eleven percent named poor sales as their most pressing problem — the highest since February 2021. Inflation worries held steady at 11%, the lowest level since September 2021, though 28% plan to raise prices in the months ahead, a sign that cost pressures persist.
Worker shortages remain acute. Thirty-three percent of owners reported job openings they could not fill, the lowest since December 2020 but still well above average. Of those hiring, 84% said they had few or no qualified applicants. Plans to boost pay are cooling: 27% reported raising compensation in July, down six points, and 17% plan to do so in the next three months. Labor costs were named the top concern by 9% of respondents.
Capital investment showed modest improvement. Fifty-five percent of owners reported spending in the past six months, with the largest share buying new equipment. Still, plans for future capital outlays remain below long-term averages. Borrowing conditions are relatively stable, with only 4% saying their last loan was harder to get. Interest rate concerns remain low, though 25% of owners borrow regularly — a historically small share.
Jonathan Eberle is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Matthew Holloway | May 7, 2025 | Economy, News
By Matthew Holloway |
The latest job report from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) shows that 34% of small business owners (seasonally adjusted) reported that despite having open positions in April, they could not find employees to fill them. Chad Heinrich, state director for NFIB in Arizona, offered some suggestions for Arizona lawmakers to address the situation and urged the passage of AZ Senate Bills 1069 and 1215.
“Arizona’s small businesses are the foundation of our economy, and our state has a chance to lead the way in empowering them,” Heinrich said in a statement. “Lawmakers have already done good work keeping taxes and regulations in check. Now, I urge them to pass Senate Bills 1069 and 1215. These two measures will lift a significant recordkeeping burden from Arizona’s smallest businesses and safeguard legal proceedings from foreign entity involvement.”
Senate Bill 1069 sponsored by AZ Senator JD Mesnard (R-LD13) would, if enacted, increase the Business Personal Property Tax exemption to $500,000 per taxpayer, relieving the tax burden on small business owners and “reduce record-keeping and compliance costs enormously,” according to the NFIB.
The bill was passed by the Senate 17-9 with four Senators not voting and passed the House Ways and Means Committee on March 5th.
The second measure, Senate Bill 1215, proposed by AZ Senate President Pro Tempore Vince Leach would require the disclosure of third-parties sponsoring predatory lawsuits against Arizona small business owners and was passed by the House Judiciary Committee on March 26th and is pending consideration by the House Rules Committee. The bill is also supported by the Arizona Chamber of Commerce & Industry, the Arizona Manufacturers Council, the Arizona Lodging & Tourism Association, and the Arizona Trucking Association.
Courtney Coolidge, executive vice president of the Arizona Chamber of Commerce & Industry said in a February statement, “Third party litigation funding has grown to an estimated $15 billion industry in the U.S. Essentially what happened is funders pour money into lawsuits in exchange for the settlement. This is a simple transparency bill to ensure transparency in our courts, protect litigants and safeguard against foreign influence. This is not just an Arizona issue; several states have passed this with bipartisan support.”
Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg explained the NFIB report’s findings saying, “Small business owners remained open to hire and grow their workforce in April. While the percent of open positions decreased a bit, Main Street firms are still struggling to find qualified applicants for their plentiful open positions.” Per the NFIB report, the percentage of unfilled job openings spiked in 2021-22 and have returned to the lowest level observed since January 2021.
Per the NFIB report, the percentage of unfilled job openings spiked in 2021-22 and have returned to the lowest level observed since January 2021 with the largest concentration of openings in construction, transportation, and manufacturing.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
