A recent report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) suggests that the ongoing illegal immigration surge at the southern border will reduce the federal deficit by a staggering $897 billion over the next decade.
At first glance, this figure might seem like a silver lining to this national crisis. However, a closer examination reveals a more complex and concerning picture and reveals this report to be another example of the government trying to conceal the truth from American citizens.
While the CBO projects an increase in revenues of $1.175 trillion and an increase in mandatory spending and spending on net interest of $278 billion over the next 10 years, these numbers fail to capture the full scope of the situation. The report’s limitations and glaring omissions paint an incomplete picture that may lead to misguided policy decisions if Congress does not understand the actual fiscal impacts of the border crisis. By publishing such an incomplete report, CBO is playing a role in covering up the Biden-Harris border crisis and not giving Congress the information it needs to fix the problem.
One glaring omission is the exclusion of discretionary spending impacts. The CBO acknowledges that the immigration surge will likely put pressure on many programs funded through discretionary appropriations. In fact, CBO estimates that increased discretionary funding as a result of the border surge could total around $200 billion over the 2024-2034 period. This substantial sum is mentioned but not factored into the deficit reduction calculation because, as CBO says, “no clear basis exists for projecting how the immigration surge will affect [congressional] funding decisions.”
Moreover, the report “does not include estimates of the surge’s effects on state and local budgets.” The CBO itself admits that “[r]esearch has generally found that increases in immigration raise state and local governments’ costs more than their revenues, and CBO expects that finding to hold in the case of the current immigration surge.” New York City alone spent $4.3 billion from July 2022 to March 2024 to accommodate immigrants and comply with existing housing policies. Extrapolating this to other cities over a decade paints a sobering picture of the financial burden on local communities.
The state of Texas was forced to take action on its own. First with Operation Lone Star (OLS), a response to the border crisis triggered by the Biden-Harris administration’s failure to enforce federal laws along the border. OLS has cost Texans about $11 billion and that’s just to secure the border. That does not include costs to the state’s health care, education, and criminal justice systems — which increase with the addition of aliens who have been let in by the Biden-Harris administration. The CBO report does not adequately assess or include these costs and they can be found in every state.
The revenue calculations assume lower tax compliance rates among the population who entered the nation via the border crisis. This raises questions about the accuracy of the projected $1.2 trillion in additional revenue.
Beyond the fiscal impacts, the report hints at broader economic consequences. The illegal immigration surge is expected to lead to lower productivity, reduce average wage growth (particularly for non-college educated workers), higher interest rates, and increased medical and food prices. These factors could have far-reaching effects on the American economy and the well-being of citizens.
Perhaps most concerning is the CBO’s own admission that its “estimates of the budgetary effects of the immigration surge are highly uncertain.” The report lists numerous “[m]ajor sources of uncertainty,” including the number of aliens who have entered the country, the duration of the border crisis itself, the changing immigration status of individuals, and their impact on productivity. Essentially, many metrics crucial to the estimate are shrouded in uncertainty and the authors of the report knew it and still published these estimates that claim mass illegal immigration is good for the deficit.
Making policy decisions based on such questionable projections, where the political left has clearly put its thumb on the scale, could have disastrous consequences and exacerbate existing problems. We must demand a more comprehensive analysis that accounts for all costs — both seen and unseen. Not a report that is politically appealing to the left’s narrative on illegal immigration.
The border crisis is not just about numbers on a balance sheet. As we debate immigration policy, we must consider not just the potential fiscal benefits but also the hidden costs and societal impacts. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated there were 74,702 fentanyl overdose deaths in the United States last year — a drug we know flows in through our open southern border.
Human trafficking and smuggling into the United States is a booming multi-billion dollar business for Mexican cartels. We must end this crisis now. When comparing the fiscal impacts to the human toll, money seems secondary and that is true, but understanding the monetary effects is important to solving the larger problem.
The CBO report should be seen as deficient and, overall, as a liability since it does not give Congress the information it needs to take action. The future of our nation depends on getting this right.
With an honest and complete assessment, we can get good legislation like the Secure the Border Act signed into law, force strong executive actions from future presidents, and keep Americans safe. These policies will ensure our nation knows who is coming in, and what the impacts of that are to U.S. citizens. But we need the CBO and Washington to stop playing politics with vital information.
A Mexican national was sentenced to prison for leading a human smuggling operation.
Last month, U.S. District Judge Scott H. Rash sentenced Martin Garcia-Velazquez to 90 months in federal prison “for his leadership role in a criminal conspiracy to transport and harbor at least 1,000 undocumented noncitizens over several years.” On September 20, 2023, Garcia-Velazquez pleaded guilty to Conspiracy to Transport and Harbor Illegal Aliens for Profit.
According to the press release from the U.S. Attorney’s Office – District of Arizona, Garcia-Velazquez “admitted that he organized the transportation of undocumented noncitizens from the Mexico border to houses in and around Phoenix.” The announcement also revealed that Homeland Security Investigations agents “seized and forfeited from organization members over $1 million” – in addition to firearms, ammunition, and vehicles.
Garcia-Velazquez is 42 years-old. He comes from San Antonio, Michoacan, Mexico.
Other co-conspirators of the operation have been sentenced in federal court.
The investigation and prosecution resulted from an Organized Crime Drug Enforcement Task Forces (OCDETF) investigation and Joint Task Force Alpha (JTFA). The news bulletin from the U.S. Attorney’s Office announced that OCDETF “identifies, disrupts, and dismantles the highest-level drug traffickers, money launderers, gangs, and transnational criminal organizations that threaten the United States by using a prosecutor-led, intelligence-driven, multi-agency approach that leverages the strengths of federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies against criminal networks.” The Office also shared that JTFA “was established to marshal the investigative and prosecutorial resources of the Department of Justice, in partnership with the Department of Homeland Security, to enhance U.S. enforcement efforts against the most prolific and dangerous human smuggling and trafficking groups operating in Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras.”
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
A school bus driver in an Arizona town was arrested for alleged smuggling activity.
Last week, the Chief Patrol Agent of the U.S. Border Patrol’s Tucson Sector, John R. Modlin, posted to “X” that “the Brian A. Terry Station Field Training Unit arrested a U.S. citizen, (who was) caught smuggling migrants inside a bus in Naco, Arizona.”
The Brian A. Terry Station Field Training Unit arrested a U.S. citizen, also a school bus driver, caught smuggling migrants inside a bus in Naco, AZ. Vigilant border camera operators played a crucial role in this apprehension after observing suspected migrants enter the bus. pic.twitter.com/DmfBbCXCQq
Chief Modlin added that “vigilant border camera operators played a crucial role in this apprehension after observing suspected migrants enter the bus.”
American citizens play a significant role in cross-border human and drug trafficking. A CATO Institute study in September 2022 found that “over ninety percent of fentanyl seizures occur at legal crossing points or interior vehicle checkpoints, not on illegal migration routes, so U.S. citizens (who are subject to less scrutiny) when crossing legally are the best smugglers.”
In 2019, the Washington Post reported that “more than sixty percent of people convicted of smuggling in federal courts in recent years have been U.S. citizens, the majority of them with little or no criminal history, according to the U.S. Sentencing Commission.” The report added that “U.S. citizens are pulled into smuggling through word of mouth and social media”…and that “smugglers have been recruited by relatives, spouses and friends – even their bosses at work – and typically communicate via cellphone with the migrants and their guides in Mexico.”
Cochise County Sheriff Mark Dannels and former Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich warned of the dangers posed to American teenagers, who are highly sought-after targets by cartels and smugglers for illegal couriering activities. In a 2022 op-ed for Fox News, the two officials wrote that “drug cartels are now using SnapChat, Instagram, and other social media apps to recruit American teenagers from around the country to transport migrants and drugs from the border,” and that “high-speed pursuits between these teenagers and local law enforcement have become daily events.”
The two officials concluded their piece by sounding the alarm about the reality on the ground, saying, “As law enforcement officials in our state, we can say with full confidence that we have never seen anything like this crisis at the border and how it is affecting everyday Americans in their communities. While many media outlets have declined to show the American public the disturbing images of increasing high-speed pursuits and other border-related devastation here at home, the death and danger they present are very real; lives are at stake.”
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
Arizona sheriffs continue to raise concerns about the escalating crisis at America’s southern border, and some of these officials are putting their money where their mouth is.
Last week, the Arizona Sheriffs Association issued a press release to announce that deputies from five state counties would be heading to Cochise County. Those counties were Apache, Coconino, Navajo, Pinal, and Yavapai.
According to the release, the purpose of the deployment is to “help stanch the flow of drug and human smuggling in the state” by “working alongside other law enforcement to curb border related crime.
“Everyday, sheriffs deputies around the state encounter drug and human smugglers in our communities,” Arizona Sheriffs Association president and Yavapai County Sheriff David Rhodes said. “This is not a border region problem but a crisis in all of Arizona.”
Cochise County Sheriff Mark Dannels is happy for the increased support from his colleagues from the Grand Canyon State. In a statement, Dannels said, “We are grateful that law enforcement from across the state are converging in southern Arizona to curb the human and drug smuggling. This show of force sends a strong message to the cartels that Arizona is serious about tackling these criminal gangs.”
The latest efforts to combat the negative effects of a porous border come as a result of the Safe Streets II Task Force out of Cochise County. The Arizona Sheriffs Association shared that this task force, comprised of law enforcement members from local, state and federal agencies, exists to “gather intelligence and attempt to apprehend human and drug smugglers.”
“It is our duty to protect the communities we serve and that starts at the U.S.-Mexico border,” Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb said. “For far too long, the border areas have been open to the drug cartels. We must work to shut off these cartels from ruining America.”
“Criminal gangs that smuggle drugs and people across the border often end up in Coconino County and threaten our law enforcement and residents,” Coconino Sheriff Jim Driscoll said. “I’d rather deter those criminals at the border and stop them from using our county as a transit corridor.”
This latest effort from Arizona sheriffs follows their actions taken earlier in the month via letters to Governor Katie Hobbs and legislative leaders, requesting the state to “double its contribution to local law enforcement to allow (sheriffs) to deploy more resources to interdict human and drug smugglers.”
Just last month, a Cochise County Deputy Sheriff was seriously injured as he attempted to stop a suspected smuggler, who was trying to evade apprehension in her vehicle. When talking to local media about the rash of similar incidents plaguing his county and department, Sheriff Mark Dannels said, “Just this week alone, I’ve had a patrol car damaged, I’ve had two officers, deputies that were trying to be run over by smuggler drivers. This is every day down here.”
In May 2022, former Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich and Cochise County Sheriff Mark Dannels penned an op-ed for Fox News, detailing how an increasing rash of border-related crimes were affecting southern Arizona communities. The two officials shared a heartbreaking story of how one of these episodes tragically changed the lives of one southern Arizona family forever, writing, “This crisis started to place local law enforcement officials and residents of Cochise County on high alert in October 2021 when law enforcement officials attempted a traffic stop on a 16-year-old from Mesa, who was smuggling migrants in Cochise County in southern Arizona. The teenager suddenly hit the gas, driving over 100 miles per hour through small towns and quiet intersections on a mad dash to avoid apprehension. He eventually ran a red light, smashing into another vehicle and killing Wanda Sitoski, a local grandmother on her way to meet her son for her 65th birthday dinner.”
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
Federal prosecutors are cracking down on human smuggling attempts through social media platforms.
On Tuesday, the United States Attorney’s Office unsealed 13 indictments for 22 individuals. Those indictments charged these people with Conspiracy to Transport Illegal Aliens for Profit.
According to the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Arizona, “each indictment charges a human smuggling coordinator who utilized social media, including Snapchat, to recruit individuals within Arizona to transport undocumented noncitizens for money. After recruiting the drivers on social media, the coordinators often switched to a messenger application such as WhatsApp to coordinate the logistics. Many of the indicted coordinators were identified through law enforcement contacts, data from cellular phones, and their social media accounts.”
These indictments confirm a concerning epidemic of alleged crimes surrounding the southern border. For years, local law enforcement has warned about the existence of human smuggling efforts taking place over social media.
In May 2022, former Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich and Cochise County Sheriff Mark Dannels penned an op-ed for Fox News, detailing these crimes and outlining how the actions affected border communities. They wrote, “Teens are being recruited because of their accessibility to social media platforms, impressionability, and youthful greed. Since October 2021, local law enforcement officials have only one recorded instance of a face-to-face recruitment between a teenager and a smuggler or cartel; the vast majority of encounters occur outside the watchful eyes of parents or guardians over social media.”
The two officials shared a heartbreaking story of how one of these episodes tragically changed the lives of one southern Arizona family forever, adding, “This crisis started to place local law enforcement officials and residents of Cochise County on high alert in October 2021 when law enforcement officials attempted a traffic stop on a 16-year-old from Mesa, who was smuggling migrants in Cochise County in southern Arizona. The teenager suddenly hit the gas, driving over 100 miles per hour through small towns and quiet intersections on a mad dash to avoid apprehension. He eventually ran a red light, smashing into another vehicle and killing Wanda Sitoski, a local grandmother on her way to meet her son for her 65th birthday dinner.”
Brnovich and Dannels called out to social media companies, the traditional media, and government officials “to highlight the escalating crisis and seek assistance.” They also warned American parents that “cartels can reach their children hundreds or thousands of miles away” because of the existence and usage of social media platforms.
The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Arizona stated that “a conviction for Conspiring to Transport Illegal Aliens for Profit carries a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison, a fine of up to $250,000, and up to three years of supervised release.”
The Homeland Security Investigations – Casa Grande and Customs and Border Protection’s U.S. Border Patrol – Tucson Sector investigated, leading to the 13 indictments. Assistant United States Attorneys Ross Arellano Edwards, John Ballos, Timothy Courchaine, Brett Day, Matthew Doyle, Lisa Jennis, Christine Keller, Marcus Shand, LeighAnn Thomas, and Stuart Zander, District of Arizona, Phoenix, are spearheading the prosecutions.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
