A new poll in the 2024 presidential election shows Donald J. Trump beating Joseph R. Biden by six points in the all-important battleground state of Arizona.
The poll was conducted by Echelon Insights, which surveyed registered voters in Arizona between March 12-19.
According to The Hill, which collected 35 presidential match-up polls out of the Grand Canyon State, Trump holds a 4.4% average lead over the Democrat incumbent. Of those polls, Trump has enjoyed leads since one released in November 2023 by Stand for Children, where the two were tied at 42 percent. Also considering these polls, the last time Biden experienced a lead in Arizona was in June 2023, where a poll from Public Opinion Strategies showed him with a two percent advantage over Trump.
Arizona’s eleven electoral votes will be critical for the eventual pathway to the White House by either candidate. In 2016, Trump won Arizona by 3.5% over Hillary Clinton. In 2020, Biden won Arizona by a razor-thin margin of 0.3%.
Both political parties are especially motivated in a presidential year within the state, but even more so when they look at everything else at stake for the future. There’s an open U.S. Senate seat, control of the Arizona Legislature, and a plethora of ballot initiatives for voters to work through in the November General Election.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
Arizona Republican Legislators were on the winning side of a unanimous decision at the U.S. Supreme Court.
On Monday, the Supreme Court of the United States reversed the opinion from the Colorado State Supreme Court that “ordered the Colorado secretary of state to exclude the former President from the Republican primary ballot in the State and to disregard any write-in votes that Colorado voters might cast for him.” The Court unanimously ruled that “the judgement of the Colorado Supreme Court cannot stand” – though two concurring opinions (one by Justice Barrett and one by Justices Sotomayor, Kagan, and Jackson) gave additional thoughts and context to the deliberations from the panel.
The decision from the nation’s high court follows an amicus brief that was submitted from more than two dozen state attorneys general and the Arizona Legislature under the leadership of Senate President Warren Petersen and House Speaker Ben Toma. That brief urged the U.S. Supreme Court to consider that “dangerous ruling out of Colorado.”
After the news of the 9-0 decision was announced, the Arizona Senate Republicans Caucus “X” account posted, “Colorado got it wrong. President Warren Petersen and the Arizona Legislature are proud to have supported President Donald Trump by filing a brief with more than two dozen other states. Today the U.S. Supreme Court agreed with us and unanimously overturned Colorado’s attempt to disenfranchise voters by keeping President Trump off the ballot.”
Colorado got it wrong.
President @votewarren and the Arizona Legislature are proud to have supported President Donald Trump by filing a brief with more than two dozen other states.
Today, the U.S. Supreme Court agreed with us and unanimously overturned Colorado's attempt to… pic.twitter.com/j2C9TRdsRi
When the Legislature joined the amicus brief in the lead-up to the arguments before the U.S. Supreme Court, Petersen had said, “This is clearly a case of judicial activism and a violation of the separation of powers. Leftist bias and prejudice are on full display from the Colorado Supreme Court.” His press release asserted that the U.S. Constitution “reserve[d] the power to determine the political question of what constitutes an ‘insurrection’ to Congress – not rogue courts.”
The Petersen and Toma-led legislature has been active in joining legal fights around the nation and in-state – especially in the absence of an attorney general who is not generally favorable to Republicans’ perspectives of different cases.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
Although former President Donald Trump will be on Arizona ballots come March, he may not be eligible to run.
In a historic and narrow ruling, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled 4-3 that former President Donald Trump isn’t eligible for office under Section Three of the 14th Amendment, which prohibits insurrectionists, rebels, or sympathizers from running for office.
The court issued a stay on its decision until either Jan. 4 or the U.S. Supreme Court rules on the case, whichever comes sooner.
Arizona’s Republican leaders decried the court ruling online, while Democratic leaders largely remained silent.
Arizona House Speaker and congressional candidate Ben Toma (R-LD08) called the ruling an “abomination to the rule of law,” noting that Trump was convicted of no crime.
“This is a gross politicization of the Justice System and the Supreme Court should intervene to reinstate him on the Colorado ballot,” said Toma.
The decision by the Colorado Supreme Court is an abomination to the rule of law. Donald Trump has not been convicted of a crime and has every right to appear on the ballot in Colorado.
In a series of tweets, Rep. Eli Crane (R-AZ-02) called the ruling “election interference” and speculated that the ruling had suspicious timing, given the historic low approval rating awarded to President Joe Biden recently. Crane accused the Democratic Party of fearing a Trump-Biden faceoff.
“At the end of the day, the left fears a return of President Trump because it would be a return to peace through strength,” said Crane. “He threatens to end their forever wars abroad, their open borders at home, and their government control over YOU.”
Anyone else find it interesting that this lands just as Biden’s approval ratings hit all time lows? https://t.co/zcpo1qsO1V
Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-AZ-08) called the decision “insane” and “the ultimate attack on democracy.”
“Democrat-appointed Colorado judges rule in favor of group saying they want to protect democracy by throwing @realDonaldTrump off ballot when the act of throwing Trump off ballot is the ultimate attack on democracy!” said Lesko.
Has the world gone totally insane??? Democrat-appointed Colorado judges rule in favor of group saying they want to protect democracy by throwing @realDonaldTrump off ballot when the act of throwing Trump off ballot is the ultimate attack on democracy!
Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ-09) saud the court decision was based on political, not legal reasoning.
“The [Democrats] know they can’t beat Trump, so they remove him and disenfranchise the voters of CO,” said Gosar. “A new low for our country. SCOTUS must end this election interference madness.
The dems know they can't beat Trump, so they remove him and disenfranchise the voters of CO. A new low for our country. SCOTUS must end this election interference madness.
This week, national Republican and Democrat candidates for President of the United States met the filing deadline to appear on a March 19th election ballot in the Grand Canyon State. Nine Republicans and seven Democrats will be on the ballot for voters of their respective parties to choose from.
The 45th President of the United States, Donald J. Trump, headlines the Republican side, which also includes fellow challengers Ron DeSantis (Governor of Florida), Nikki Haley (former Ambassador to the United Nations), Chris Christie (former Governor of New Jersey), and Vivek Ramaswamy (Entrepreneur).
President Joe Biden, the 46th American Commander in Chief, overshadows the field for his Democrat Party.
A fair number of candidates with significant name ID remain on the Republican side in addition to the former president, but the choices for Republicans will likely be whittled down to two candidates by the time March 19th rolls around – thanks to several primaries in states around the country before Arizona’s contest. In 2016, the last time the state hosted a competitive Republican preference election, Trump and U.S. Senator Ted Cruz were essentially the last two candidates standing in Arizona, even though more names were on the ballot.
Though there are more than three months remaining until the Arizona Presidential Preference Election, former President Trump appears to have a commanding lead over any of his Republican competitors. According to a November poll of the primary field by Noble Predictive Insights, Trump’s numbers in the November survey grew to 53% of the Republican electorate (up from 50% in July), while Governor Ron DeSantis lost three points (19% from 16%). Ambassador Nikki Haley doubled her standing from the July report, acquiring eight percent of the Arizona GOP field (from four percent in July). Vivek Ramaswamy remained at nine percent.
A recent AZ Free News voter poll conducted by Data Orbital also revelead that nearly 4.5 percent more of Arizona voters prefer former President Donald Trump over current President Joe Biden
The primaries and causes will soon start when the calendar turns to 2024, and candidates look to shore up the requisite number of delegates to win their party’s nomination. On Monday, January 15, Iowans will caucus to kick off the election schedule. New Hampshire will then follow on Tuesday, January 23. There will be 14 states holding primary elections on ‘Super Tuesday,’ March 5.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
In an exclusive poll for AZ Free News, nearly 4.5 percent more of Arizona voters revealed that they prefer former President Donald Trump over current President Joe Biden. The poll also showed that Arizona voters have a low favorability of Gov. Katie Hobbs.
When asked who they would vote for should Trump and Biden serve as the 2024 presidential candidates, 39.5 percent picked Trump and 35.2 percent picked Biden. 19 percent said they would pick a third party candidate, and five percent were undecided.
George Khalaf, president of Data Orbital who conducted the poll, told AZ Free News that the polling serves as a troublesome portent for Democratic candidates in 2024.
“Arizona Democrats should be very concerned that we enter 2024 with Governor Hobbs and President Biden both having favorability ratings that are under 40 percent,” said Khalaf. “Former President Trump’s ballot test advantage of nearly 4.5 percent shows a strong early position for Republicans in Arizona. Both of these data points are in line with broader numbers coming out nationally from other swing states.”
When asked about Hobbs, only 38 percent of voters found her favorable. The disapproval rating comes close to other recent polling published this month. Hobbs was one of seven governors with an approval rating below 50 percent. The Morning Consult reported the governor had a 48 percent approval and 40 percent disapproval rating.
The favorability rating marks an improvement from over the summer, when Hobbs dipped to a 40 percent approval rating via Morning Consult: second to last for least-liked governor.
23 percent found Hobbs to be strongly favorable, and 15 percent found her to be somewhat favorable. 27 percent found her to be strongly unfavorable, and 11 percent found her to be somewhat unfavorable. 16 percent were neutral or had no opinion on Hobbs. Two percent were undecided or refused to answer.
In terms of general favorability, apart from serving as the 2024 candidate, 42 percent of voters found Trump favorable, with 29 percent finding him strongly favorable and 13 percent finding him somewhat favorable. About four percent were neutral or had no opinion, and about one percent were undecided or refused to answer.
Comparatively, only 36 percent of respondents found Biden favorable, with 20 percent finding him strongly favorable and 16 percent finding him somewhat favorable. Six percent were neutral or had no opinion of Biden. About two percent were undecided on the issue or refused to answer.
Over 52 percent of respondents were females, while over 47 percent were males.
38 percent of respondents were Republicans, 32 percent were Democrats, 27 percent were independents or unidentified, and two percent were “other.”
When asked to identify themselves outside party lines and along ideological descriptors, 37 percent identified as conservative, 38 percent identified as moderate, 20 percent identified as progressive, and about three percent were undecided.
Voter age groups were nearly split evenly, with the exception of the elderly crowd. Only six percent of polled voters were 18 to 24, 12 percent were 25 to 34, 14 percent were 35 to 44, 15 percent were 45 to 54, 18 percent were 55 to 64, and 34 percent were 65 and older.
71 percent of respondents were white, 19 percent were Hispanic, four percent were African American, three percent were Asian or Pacific Islander, and four percent identified as “other.”
Most respondents had some college but no degree: nearly 42 percent. Over 24 percent had a bachelor’s degree, 15 percent had a graduate degree or higher, 15 percent had a high school degree or equivalent, and over two percent had less than a high school diploma.
Most of the respondents had better turnout for the general elections compared to the primary elections. Only 18 percent voted in all four of the last four primary elections, but nearly 50 percent voted in all four of the last four general elections.
The poll had an approximated four percent margin of error.
Corinne Murdock is a reporter for AZ Free News. Follow her latest on Twitter, or email tips to corinne@azfreenews.com.
