The field of Republican presidential hopefuls grows larger by the week. But do any of them stand a chance of beating Joe Biden next year?
The president’s approval ratings remain anemic. He can take comfort, though, by thinking back to what happened last year.
Every indication pointed to a Republican landslide in the 2022 midterms. Yet the polls and pundits were wrong. The GOP barely scraped together a House majority and actually lost a Senate seat.
Unless Republicans figure out what went wrong in November, they risk a similar humiliation in 2024 when their nominee takes on Biden. In this political mystery, there are all too many suspects. Many seem obvious: The GOP nominated bad candidates. Voters wanted to punish Donald Trump. Women alarmed by the overturning of Roe v. Wade flocked to the Democrats. Or maybe the polls were just wrong.
In a meticulous study for RealClearPolitics, the political scientist James E. Campbell considers and rejects each of those explanations.
If the nominees were so bad, why did they poll so well?
If voters wanted to rebuke Trump, why didn’t that hurt Republican numbers long before Election Day?
Most attempts to account for the “red wave’s” failure to swell fall short for the same reason. If voters soured on the GOP for whatever reason, polls should have picked up on their feelings. The trend should have been visible in advance.
Yet the polls weren’t exactly wrong, according to Campbell. They were inadequate.
A poll isn’t a prediction; it’s a survey of a limited number of respondents. Reputable polls try to survey the most likely voters. Last year, that led them astray.
Campbell proposes a “Breakwater Theory” of the 2022 election. In eight key states, which made the difference between the predicted red wave and the eventual red puddle, Democrats beat the polls by mobilizing unlikely voters.
Those eight states — Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, Washington and New Hampshire — all had “Democrat-friendly easy and early mail-in voting rules,” Campbell notes. And Democrats maximized their opportunity by concentrating midterm spending in those states.
Seven of those eight states had Senate races, and as Campbell reports, “The Democratic Party and its supporting outside groups and individuals spent in excess of $700 million on these seven races, over $200 million more than Republicans spent.”
There is more in Campbell’s analysis. But the bottom line is that Democrats picked their battles more wisely than Republicans did.
Extra campaign spending and accommodating election rules brought out marginal Democratic votes that pollsters mostly missed. Those eight states were the breakwater that stemmed the red tide.
Two Republican countermeasures for 2024 require no imagination. The party has to target its spending better.
And as much as the GOP would like to see stricter election laws, it must play the game by the rules now in place. That means pouring resources into getting out the early vote and mail-in vote for Republican candidates, rather than conceding those categories to the Democrats.
But another smart tactic goes against one of the most cherished cliches of campaign consulting. With good reason, campaign professionals tell their clients to “hunt where the ducks are.” Look for voters where you already know you have support. Don’t waste limited resources hunting in unlikely places.
In 2016, however, Donald Trump defied the experts’ advice. He ran an old-fashioned in-person campaign, showing up in places that hadn’t seen a candidate from either party in years, if not decades. His roving rallies were in contrast to the familiar circuit Hillary Clinton followed. And they won him states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that hadn’t gone Republican since the 1980s.
COVID-19 worked to Joe Biden’s advantage in 2020. His presence on the campaign trail wasn’t much missed at a time when most Americans were avoiding public gatherings. And while Trump held some rallies, especially toward the end of the campaign, he couldn’t do what he had done in 2016.
The Republican nominee will have to do it in 2024.
Just as the GOP has to compete with Democratic mail-in and early-vote efforts, Biden will be competing in a sport he would rather not play if the Republican forces him to take to the trail in state after state.
Donald Trump enjoys that game. Ron DeSantis is young enough that he should play it well. The contrast between his youth and Biden’s senescence will only be more striking when voters witness it firsthand.
Yet the most important thing is that Republicans be as smart and enterprising about mobilizing less likely voters as Democrats were last year.
Even as they aim to beat him in next year’s primaries, Trump’s rivals must learn from his example. They have to find unlikely voters in unlikely places.
The road to the White House runs through factory towns and flyover country.
Daniel McCarthy is a contributor to The Daily Caller News Foundation and the editor of Modern Age: A Conservative Review. To read more by Daniel McCarthy, visit www.creators.com.
After days of anticipation, a former American president was indicted by a New York City grand jury, sparking great outrage by Arizona Republicans.
Former President Donald J. Trump, according to reports, was indicted by a New York City grand jury on Thursday. The indictment came days after Trump posted a warning to his Truth Social account that he would soon be arrested despite “no crime being able to be proven and based on an old and fully debunked fairytale.”
The news created a firestorm across the nation – on both sides of the aisle. Arizona, home to some of the most ardent supporters of the former president – was no exception, as lawmakers and party leaders expressed their thoughts on the historic and unprecedented action by a prosecutor against a former leader of the free world and current frontrunner for President of the United States.
Kari Lake, the 2022 Republican nominee for Arizona Governor, released a statement condemning the indictment, writing: “This is a dark moment in the history of our nation. The radical left and their weaponized criminal justice system have crossed all legal and ethical lines in an attempt to destroy President Donald J. Trump. Jailing your political opponents based on politically-motivated grievances is something you’d expect to see out of third-world dictatorships or banana republics. But now, after a years-long assault on our Constitution, the radical left has accelerated this country’s descent into a broken system that allows for the political persecution of ANYONE who threatens the status quo.”
My statement on the Indictment of the 45th & 47th President of the United States. Donald J. Trump ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/kC2fnNpNiD
— AZ State Rep. Austin Smith (@azaustinsmith) March 30, 2023
Smith later added, “The American left has fully embraced Bolshevism now with no apologies There is no going back from this.”
The American left has fully embraced Bolshevism now with no apologies. There is no going back from this.
— AZ State Rep. Austin Smith (@azaustinsmith) March 31, 2023
Representative John Gillette stated, “This has already been to trial. Stormy lost and had to pay Trump $300,000, her lawyer, Avanati was convicted and sent to prison for fraud. The Democrat machine and the Soros funded AG, used his office for politics. He just assured that Trump supporters will come out strongly!
This has already been to trial. Stormy lost and had to pay Trump $300,000, her lawyer, Avanati was convicted and sent to prison for fraud. The Democrat machine and the Soros funded AG, used his office for politics He just assured that Trump supporters will come out strongly!
— Rep. John Gillette AZ House LD30 (@AzRepGillette) March 30, 2023
Representative Alex Kolodin challenged his colleagues to use the breaking news to push legislation that would hinder these prosecutorial actions, saying, “Reminder, my fellow Freedom Caucus members and I are running a bill to prohibit political prosecutions – the time is now!”
Reminder, my fellow Freedom Caucus members and I are running a bill to prohibit political prosecutions – the time is now!https://t.co/XjiH5VeJYG
Kolodin’s pitch to fellow legislators attracted the attention of Senator Justine Wadsack, who endorsed his comments” “I’m proud to work with @realAlexKolodin on our bill #SB1418 that passed out of the Senate and House Government committee. The timing for the need of such a bill is ironic with the indictment of Donald Trump.”
I’m proud to work with @realAlexKolodin on our bill #SB1418 that passed out of the Senate & House Government committee.
— AZ Senator Justine Wadsack (@Wadsack4Arizona) March 31, 2023
Senator Jake Hoffman, the Chairman of the Arizona Freedom Caucus, said, “The indictment of President Trump by this Soros-backed prosecutor is the most disgusting weaponization of the justice system in our nation’s history.”
“The indictment of President Trump by this Soros-backed prosecutor is the most disgusting weaponization of the justice system in our nation’s history.
Democrats just guaranteed President Trump the White House in 2024.”
Senator Jake Hoffman Chairman, Arizona Freedom Caucus
— AZ Representative Rachel Jones (@RJ4arizona) March 31, 2023
Senator Wendy Rogers, one of Trump’s top allies in the state, echoed what many of her colleagues had been releasing throughout the day, tweeting, “We stand with @realDonaldTrump.”
The Arizona Senate Democrats Caucus appeared to mock Republicans standing with the former President – specifically Representative Smith, tweeting, “ *makes note* Arizona Freedom Caucus is standing with the President who paid hush money to a porn star while married.”
Smith had the last word with this exchange, firing back: “ *makes note* Arizona Senate Democrats ok with third world country tactics”
— AZ State Rep. Austin Smith (@azaustinsmith) March 31, 2023
The Arizona Senate Democrats Caucus unsurprisingly had a different perspective on the day’s events, stating, “Big list of ‘firsts’ from Donald Trump: – First President to face criminal charges. – First President to lead an insurrection on our Capitol (joined by a current Arizona Republican State Senator). – First President that led an active charge to overturn our elections.”
Big list of “firsts” from Donald Trump: – First President to face criminal charges. – Frist President to lead an insurrection on our Capitol (joined by a current Arizona Republican State Senator). – First President that led an active charge to overturn our elections. https://t.co/rN7gbnnmHx
— Arizona Senate Democrats (@AZSenateDems) March 30, 2023
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
The last time Republicans lived up to their reputation for sound fiscal policy was almost 30 years ago. In March 1995, Speaker Newt Gingrich and the Republican House caucus, to the jeers of skeptics, resolved to balance the federal budget within seven years. They did it in four.
Yet ever since, Republicans have provided slight protection against the unending torrent of Democrat spending schemes. They talk a brave game of cutting when out of power but are mostly unable to curb their political urge to spend when they have the authority.
Consequently, the national debt doubled from $5 trillion to $10 trillion under the inattentive George W. Bush. Candidate Donald Trump in 2016 promised to pay down the debt completely over eight years. Sure. In just four years, the debt surged by $7.8 trillion, a 36% hike.
We’ve all seen the drill. Create an emergency spending need where none exists (climate change) or which could better be addressed in a more measured way (COVID), exaggerate the danger, create panic, open the spigot, take credit.
$4.1 trillion in new spending during the Biden years for these created “emergencies” have put Americans in extremely dangerous fiscal territory. The voters this time gave House Republicans one more chance to redeem themselves. Now the stakes are higher than ever, and the pressure is on.
The early rhetoric was promising. However, vows to “curb wasteful government spending” were followed by…reinstatement of earmarks. Those little pieces of unvetted local pork slipped into spending bills to benefit individual legislators. What a crushing disappointment.
Republicans swore off earmarks in 2011. But when a Democrat Congress brought them back in 2021, 120 Republicans partook, scooping up $5 billion for their own Bridges to Nowhere. A motion this year to disallow earmarks was overwhelmingly defeated in the Republican caucus.
15 conservative policy groups cautioned Republicans that “earmarks are one of the most corrupt, inequitable and wasteful practices in the history of Congress.” Each congressman earns his little cookie by supporting all of his colleagues’ polite graft.
Yet GOP appropriators claimed earmarks were their “constitutional duty” and actually help to control spending! What a crock.
The Republican face plant over a matter so obviously wrong gives fiscal conservatives the sinking feeling that they may not be up to the fight. Candidates barely mentioned the deficit/debt during the last election, in contrast to previous campaigns. What fiscal crisis?
Instead, Americans have been conditioned by their politicians to believe that no wants should be unmet, that we “deserve” lavish government benefits unyoked to effort, that thorny political issues from illegal immigration to educational failure can be solved by simply spending more, and that any fiscal consequences can be safely kicked down the road.
Republicans aren’t going to dig out of this hole any time soon. But they can start the process by doing the right thing right now.
As this is written, Republicans are negotiating an omnibus budget bill of nearly $2 trillion. The leadership has known for nine months this must be completed by year’s end, but once again thoughtful, thorough budgeting has given way to a 4,155-page bill delivered at 1:30 AM to legislators who can’t possibly understand its provisions.
The bill contains no program cuts, but instead a mix of mandatory spending, outrageous pork like LGBTQ “Pride Centers,” and a specific prohibition against funding for border security. Lawmakers must approve the bill now or, in the case of Republicans, be held liable for the dreaded government shutdown.
But economist Steve Moore has a better idea. Republicans only need to refuse to waive provisions of the 2010 Pay-As-You-Go Act. PAYGO has been routinely suspended in recent years, but just 41 of 50 senators refusing this time would result in $130 billion in mandatory “sequester” cuts, just 5% of the Biden spending splurge.
Alternately, Congress could cancel the $80 billion for 87,000 new IRS agents, take back $500 billion in unspent COVID funding, and/or scale back the “Green New Deal” subsidies, a relatively painless way to uphold the PAYGO rules.
Congressional Republicans will never have a better opportunity to begin the return to responsible governance. If they don’t have the will now, when will they?
Dr. Thomas Patterson, former Chairman of the Goldwater Institute, is a retired emergency physician. He served as an Arizona State senator for 10 years in the 1990s, and as Majority Leader from 93-96. He is the author of Arizona’s original charter schools bill.
Six days before Christmas, the House Jan. 6 Committee gave Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ-05) a referral to the House Ethics Committee. In response to the committee’s final attempt to bend Biggs to their will, Biggs promised to publicize the committee’s “lies” and correct the record.
The referral was part of a larger set of referrals capping off the committee’s final hearing, chief among which was the criminal referrals of former President Donald Trump, former Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, Rudy Giuliani, John Eastman, Jeffrey Clark, and Kenneth Cheseboro to the Department of Justice (DOJ).
The committee referred Biggs for sanctions to the House Ethics Committee for failing to comply with their subpoenas. They suggested that Biggs and others referred for sanctions should be questioned publicly about their “advance knowledge of and role in President Trump’s plan to prevent the peaceful transition of power.”
The committee announced their decision after their final meeting on Monday, and issued a 154-page report of their findings.
Although the committee publicized a number of records within its report, they’ve refused to publish certain information of interest. Records of federal involvement — such as the ongoing mystery behind Ray Epps, who appears to be the only Capitol intruder to avoid prosecution — remain inaccessible to the public.
Monday’s decision by the committee was punishment for Biggs’ refusal to comply with their subpoena. The congressman refused to turn over information regarding Jan. 6 and then refused to appear for his deposition.
The Jan. 6 Committee findings documented Biggs’ communications with Mark Meadows, Trump’s former White House chief of staff, advising their administration to encourage state legislators to appoint electors, and to not allow Trump to concede the election. Biggs also coordinated with defeated secretary of state candidate, then a state representative, Mark Finchem, to gather Arizona lawmaker signatures in support of new electors.
The committee also noted Biggs’ criticisms of their work.
Biggs decried the committee’s announcement as “their final political stunt” of many. Biggs added that the committee’s use of the House Ethics Committee was an inappropriate maneuver to justify “predetermined” conclusions.
“They only wanted the testimony to have the ability to edit and misconstrue our statements to further their own false narratives, as they did with so many other witnesses,” stated Biggs.
In addition to Biggs, Reps. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA-23), Jim Jordan (R-OH-04), and Scott Perry (R-PA-10) were referred for an ethics probe.
The committee claimed that Trump violated 18 U.S.C. § 1512(C), 371, 1001, and 2383. These statutes prohibit the obstruction of an official proceeding, conspiracy to defraud the U.S., conspiracy to make a false statement, and incite, assist, or aid or comfort an insurrection.
Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD-08) declared that the committee’s hands were tied “inescapably” by the application of facts to law.
“We understand the gravity of each and every referral we are making today… just as we understand the magnitude of the crime against democracy we describe in our Report,” stated Raskin.
Among those to testify against Trump before the Jan 6. Committee was outgoing House Speaker Rusty Bowers (R-Mesa).
Watch the full meeting here:
Corinne Murdock is a reporter for AZ Free News. Follow her latest on Twitter, or email tips to corinne@azfreenews.com.
The debate over election fraud versus voter suppression is high-stakes and high-intensity. Trump loyalists insist the election was stolen, mechanically rigged, and rife with fraudulent actors. Democrats continue to insist that fraud never happens, an argument easily swatted away by the existence of thousands of documented incidents.
But Democrats have a point in that the problematic behaviors—bulk mail voting, ballot harvesting, and related practices—were permitted by law in most states. That means, according to the “fact checkers,” all reasonable people must agree that there was no fraud.
Trump fought the wrong war at the wrong time. While he was ranting about corrupt voting machines, rogue election workers, and a cascade of assorted allegations, Democrats in the last two elections were cleverly creating election rules intended to generate a permanent majority.
Trump and his supporters were never able to prevail in a court of law. In the end, they were outsmarted and lost the election to a pathetically weak candidate.
Attorney General Bill Barr was an astute, loyal adviser to Trump during the election. Unfortunately, his advice to stop exploring rabbit holes was not heeded. Yet he would see the traps the Democrats were setting in September 2020.
Bulk mail balloting is not your father’s absentee voting, he explained on CNN. “Instead of requests coming from a specific address, we are now going to mail them to everyone on a voter list, when everyone knows the voter lists are inaccurate.”
“People who should get them don’t get them…and people who get them are not the right people. They are people who have replaced the previous occupant…and sometimes multiple ballots come to the same address with several generations of previous occupants.” That’s no way to run an election, he concluded.
He’s right. For generations, America had voting laws that produced fair, reliable results. The laws required that all voters register beforehand and present a secure ID. All votes were cast confidentially. Absolutely no intimidation or persuasion was allowed in or near a polling station.
Importantly, there was a strict chain of custody to make sure that there could be no tampering and that all legally cast ballots would be counted. Voting was done mostly on site although accommodations were made for those unable to vote in person on election day.
That was the American way of conducting elections. Now all that has changed. Millions of ballots are sent automatically to voters just because they didn’t opt out of receiving one. Nobody knows what happens to them until they are returned.
Helpful party workers can collect them, offer aid with voting, and often leave them anonymously in drop boxes. The notoriously unreliable signature verification often is the only ID required.
Today, this is all perfectly legal. Of course, it’s illegal to vote a ballot not your own, to unduly influence another voter, or to fail to deliver certain ballots. But with bulk mail voting, none of this is detectable.
Once a mail-in ballot is opened and separated from its envelope, any possible proof of fraud is lost, no matter how many audits and investigations are performed. We have a voting system obviously prone to fraud and coercion yet opaque to any misdeeds committed within it.
Arizona voters, thanks to their legislature, will have a chance this year to close one gaping flaw in our system by approving a requirement of voter ID for bulk mail voters. There is no coherent reason to require ID at the polls while bulk mail voters get a pass.
Although the media continue to insist that those who support voter ID are “vote suppressors,” Americans smell a rat. According to a Quinnipiac poll, only 60% of voters overall believed the last election to be legitimate.
In the end, it may not matter how much “provable fraud” can be discovered. So long as we have a slipshod, non-secure system like bulk-mail voting, it will be difficult to convince voters of the integrity of their vote.
In a closely divided country, it is critical that citizens have confidence in elections and the legitimacy of the government. As Bill Barr says, “we are playing with fire.”
Dr. Thomas Patterson, former Chairman of the Goldwater Institute, is a retired emergency physician. He served as an Arizona State senator for 10 years in the 1990s, and as Majority Leader from 93-96. He is the author of Arizona’s original charter schools bill.
