By Corinne Murdock |

In an exclusive poll for AZ Free News, nearly 4.5 percent more of Arizona voters revealed that they prefer former President Donald Trump over current President Joe Biden. The poll also showed that Arizona voters have a low favorability of Gov. Katie Hobbs.

When asked who they would vote for should Trump and Biden serve as the 2024 presidential candidates, 39.5 percent picked Trump and 35.2 percent picked Biden. 19 percent said they would pick a third party candidate, and five percent were undecided.  

George Khalaf, president of Data Orbital who conducted the poll, told AZ Free News that the polling serves as a troublesome portent for Democratic candidates in 2024.

“Arizona Democrats should be very concerned that we enter 2024 with Governor Hobbs and President Biden both having favorability ratings that are under 40 percent,” said Khalaf. “Former President Trump’s ballot test advantage of nearly 4.5 percent shows a strong early position for Republicans in Arizona. Both of these data points are in line with broader numbers coming out nationally from other swing states.” 

When asked about Hobbs, only 38 percent of voters found her favorable. The disapproval rating comes close to other recent polling published this month. Hobbs was one of seven governors with an approval rating below 50 percent. The Morning Consult reported the governor had a 48 percent approval and 40 percent disapproval rating.

The favorability rating marks an improvement from over the summer, when Hobbs dipped to a 40 percent approval rating via Morning Consult: second to last for least-liked governor.

23 percent found Hobbs to be strongly favorable, and 15 percent found her to be somewhat favorable. 27 percent found her to be strongly unfavorable, and 11 percent found her to be somewhat unfavorable. 16 percent were neutral or had no opinion on Hobbs. Two percent were undecided or refused to answer.

In terms of general favorability, apart from serving as the 2024 candidate, 42 percent of voters found Trump favorable, with 29 percent finding him strongly favorable and 13 percent finding him somewhat favorable. About four percent were neutral or had no opinion, and about one percent were undecided or refused to answer.

Comparatively, only 36 percent of respondents found Biden favorable, with 20 percent finding him strongly favorable and 16 percent finding him somewhat favorable. Six percent were neutral or had no opinion of Biden. About two percent were undecided on the issue or refused to answer.

Over 52 percent of respondents were females, while over 47 percent were males. 

38 percent of respondents were Republicans, 32 percent were Democrats, 27 percent were independents or unidentified, and two percent were “other.”

When asked to identify themselves outside party lines and along ideological descriptors, 37 percent identified as conservative, 38 percent identified as moderate, 20 percent identified as progressive, and about three percent were undecided.

Voter age groups were nearly split evenly, with the exception of the elderly crowd. Only six percent of polled voters were 18 to 24, 12 percent were 25 to 34, 14 percent were 35 to 44, 15 percent were 45 to 54, 18 percent were 55 to 64, and 34 percent were 65 and older. 

71 percent of respondents were white, 19 percent were Hispanic, four percent were African American, three percent were Asian or Pacific Islander, and four percent identified as “other.”

Most respondents had some college but no degree: nearly 42 percent. Over 24 percent had a bachelor’s degree, 15 percent had a graduate degree or higher, 15 percent had a high school degree or equivalent, and over two percent had less than a high school diploma.

Most of the respondents had better turnout for the general elections compared to the primary elections. Only 18 percent voted in all four of the last four primary elections, but nearly 50 percent voted in all four of the last four general elections. 

The poll had an approximated four percent margin of error. 

Corinne Murdock is a reporter for AZ Free News. Follow her latest on Twitter, or email tips to corinne@azfreenews.com.