A recent campaign ad from the Democrat incumbent governor cost her millions, but critics and past reporting indicate the ad is misleading and takes credit for work done by Republicans.
Gov. Katie Hobbs’ 30-second “Work” ad released last month claimed that she reduced electricity bills, cut red tape to build more affordable housing, and balanced the budget. Critics across the political spectrum assessed these claims as misleading.
Utility rates have increased by more than 25% under the Hobbs administration.
The Arizona Free Enterprise Club calculated based on Energy Information Administration data that utility rates in Arizona have increased by an average of 27% under Hobbs’ tenure. The Arizona Corporation Commission (ACC) sets rates.
The largest donor to Hobbs’ controversial inaugural fund, Arizona Public Service, also wants to increase the utility rates by 14%. That ratemaking case is ongoing with the ACC.
The Hobbs administration imposed more red tape on housing construction that had the effect of imposing a housing moratorium. A court struck down that red tape earlier this year as an unlawful overreach in agency rulemaking, a ruling which has the potential to put Arizona taxpayers on the hook for over $1 billion in compensation claims.
One developer duo, Buckeye Tartesso I and II, already filed such a claim last September with the help of the Goldwater Institute. The duo is seeking over $320 million in compensation for lost value, an amount their demand letter claimed was a compilation of conservative, not maximum, estimates.
Budget talks were repeatedly called off and subjected to a bill moratorium by Hobbs as she tried to impose what Republican lawmakers characterized as unrealistic revenue assumptions, hidden tax increases, and cost-raising policies.
In the thick of budget talks earlier this year, House Speaker Steve Montenegro (R-LD29) commented that Hobbs’ budgeting style was reminiscent of the more liberal-style budgets coming out of California: fiscal approaches which increase government size and create inconsistencies within the tax system. Hobbs held out on securing tax conformity for months to align the Arizona tax code with many of the congressional changes passed under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act
Hobbs has been accused by bipartisan critics of turning her inheritance of a $2.5 billion surplus from former governor Doug Ducey into a $1.6 billion shortfall.
Last summer, a report by the Common Sense Institute Arizona found that state spending outpaced the $3.3 billion in revenues that emerged following the passage of the flat tax in 2023.
Per the Hobbs campaign, the ad buys required millions from her campaign coffers.
Additionally, the Hobbs campaign press release implied that the Spanish-speaking version of her “Work” ad, “No Se Rinde” (“Doesn’t Give Up”), was uniform in its messaging. However, the ads contained key differences that indicated an awareness of Arizona’s split demographics.
Both opened with a characterization of Hobbs’ background as a mother who worked multiple jobs and as a social worker, but differed distinctly in their portrayals of Hobbs’ approach to governance.
The English-speaking ad, “Work,” depicted Hobbs as a budget and policy expert with key wins in electricity bill and red tape cuts, and school lunch and community college scholarship expansions.
The English ad described Hobbs as working fast food and Uber jobs to make ends meet. It included the misleading claims that Hobbs was responsible for balancing the budget without raising taxes, reducing electricity bills, and cutting affordable housing red tape, along with the valid claims that she expanded school lunches and community college scholarships.
The Spanish version of the ad, “No Se Rinde,” depicted Hobbs as a social worker with key wins in medical debt forgiveness, medical cost cuts, and salary boosts. Hobbs forgave $30 million in medical debts early on in her administration.
The Spanish-speaking ad similarly characterized Hobbs as having a background as a working mother, but only highlighted her past Uber driving work and expanded on her time as a social worker as mainly aiding female domestic violence victims. The ad further diverged in describing Hobbs as responsible for canceling tens of millions in medical debt, reducing medical costs with discounts up to 80 percent, and raising salaries.
A Centers for Disease Control report published in 2024 suggested that Latino and Hispanic women have a disproportionately higher risk of experiencing domestic violence: one in three, indicating an occurrence average up to three times higher than white women.
Close to a quarter of all Latinos in Arizona are uninsured, as are nearly half of all illegal aliens, according to a 2022 research analysis from the Latino Policy & Politics Institute. Approximately 80% of Latino families in Arizona reported financial trouble according to recent polling by UnidosUS; nearly half of Latinos across Arizona, California, and Texas reported medical debt in a 2024 UnidosUS poll.
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After months of vetoes and walking away from the table, Hobbs has finally signed a budget. A budget that looks pretty much the same as the one Legislative Republicans sent up to her desk at the beginning of May. A budget she vetoed, and that she and her colleagues in the Legislature bashed repeatedly. So, what changed?
There were two budget priorities our organization laid out before the session began. First, anything less than full conformity tax relief from Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill would essentially be a tax hike on Arizonans. Second, an extension of Prop 123 (the increased distribution from the state land trust to K-12 schools to the tune of $330 million a year) must be a nonstarter in budget negotiations. Before getting into the details, both of these objectives were accomplished.
The biggest item in this budget fight was undoubtedly tax cuts from tax conformity. After President Trump signed the Big Beautiful Bill into law on 4th of July 2025, states faced a decision: do they pass on the tax relief Republicans in D.C. delivered, or do they effectively increase taxes on their residents. Core planks of conformity included no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, an increased standard deduction, a new deduction for seniors, among several provisions for small businesses and corporations of all sizes, most importantly allowing them to deduct expenses in the year they are made, rather than depreciating those expenses over several years. In other words, the bulk of the business provisions weren’t even a tax cut. The question is not whether businesses deduct those expenses, only when they deduct them.
This question needed to be resolved quickly, as the legislature begins session the second week of January and Tax Day is in April. In the first week of session, Republicans in the legislature sent a package to her desk that delivered full tax relief. All democrats voted no. Hobbs vetoed it.
Again, in February, to prevent confusion and chaos for taxpayers beginning to file, Republicans in the legislature sent up another bill. It received a veto. At the beginning of May, they sent up a budget that included full tax conformity relief for the third time. Again, it met a veto.
Based on all of the votetoes, relentless opposition and endless rhetoric about “tax breaks for billionaires,” you would think that the agreed upon budget must have included significant changes to the tax package. But if you are thinking that, you would be very wrong.
So What did Hobbs and Democrats actually fight for in this budget that necessitated six months of chaos and tax season confusion?
Arizona State Senator David Farnsworth (R-LD10) is pushing back against Democratic criticism of the Republican-backed state budget vetoed this week by Gov. Katie Hobbs. Farnsworth argues that the plan maintains core government services while reducing spending and providing tax relief.
In a statement released Wednesday, Farnsworth said claims that the Republican proposal would harm public safety, wildfire suppression, child welfare, and water protection efforts were “completely false.”
The Republican budget proposal would spend approximately $800 million less than Hobbs’ proposed budget while maintaining funding for K-12 education and public safety. Senate Republicans also said the proposal includes approximately $1.45 billion in tax relief over four years without raising taxes or defaulting on state financial obligations.
🚨FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Senator Farnsworth Responds to Misleading Claims About Republican Budget Proposal
Arizona Senate Republicans said the proposal preserves funding for wildfire mitigation efforts and Colorado River protection programs, exempts the Department of Child Safety from a proposed 5% operating reduction, and supports law enforcement while focusing on reducing unnecessary spending and prioritizing relief for working families, seniors, and small businesses.
“The Republican budget proposal, which Hobbs vetoed on Tuesday, reflects a balanced approach,” Farnsworth said. “It protects essential services, supports public safety, and shows respect for taxpayers by focusing on responsible spending.”
The statement follows Hobbs’ veto of the Republican-backed budget proposal. Hobbs criticized the proposal as “unbalanced and reckless,” arguing it would jeopardize healthcare access, public safety funding, and services for vulnerable residents while prioritizing tax cuts.
Republican lawmakers have defended the proposal as a fiscally conservative alternative to the governor’s spending plan. Legislative leaders previously said the budget would reduce overall spending compared to Hobbs’ January proposal while implementing tax conformity measures tied to recent federal tax changes.
Farnsworth also said he had invited lawmakers from both parties and both legislative chambers to participate in budget discussions throughout the session and said that invitation remains open.
“While there may be disagreements about priorities, it is crucial that our discussions are based on facts rather than fear,” Farnsworth said. “Although the governor walked away from budget discussions, we look forward to renewing good-faith negotiations to ensure that Arizona families, communities, and critical services are supported both now and in the future with a responsible state budget.”
Budget negotiations between the Republican-controlled Legislature and the governor’s office remain ongoing as lawmakers work toward passage of a final spending plan before the end of the legislative session.
Less than an hour had passed from when Republicans delivered a budget to Katie Hobbs desk yesterday to when she stamped it with a ‘veto.’ No one is surprised, since from the moment she walked out of negotiations six weeks ago and “challenged” Republicans to show their budget hand, she had already made up her mind about vetoing it. She just needed them to do all the work first.
Hobbs has grown far too comfortable being the only one setting conditions on budget negotiations, considering every condition she has set has been unreasonable, unworkable, or erratic.
She tried to anchor the entire budget to an unprecedented raid of the state land trust, speculative revenue requiring voter approval that could never functionally bridge her reckless spending. She wanted to deliver only half the conformity relief Arizona taxpayers are entitled to under the One Big Beautiful Bill, in direct contradiction to tax forms her own Department of Revenue already issued, creating tax filing chaos. She tried to “trade” not forcing that tax hike on Arizonans for kicking kids off the ESA program (insane). And when Republicans said no to all of it, she flipped the table and stormed off, openly admitting she was out of ideas, and demanding Republicans produce a budget on their own.
While the veto from Hobbs was largely expected, Hobbs’ explanation for her veto was such brazen hypocrisy that it raises the genuine question of whether she is being ironic or fails to see the numerous contradictions in her opposition to the GOP budget…
On Monday, House Republicans put forth what they called a balanced budget of $17.9 billion.
By Tuesday, Gov. Katie Hobbs said the proposal was all but dead.
The leaders of both chambers characterized their budget as uniquely reflective of total conformity with federal tax law — no other states adopted the entire slate of tax cuts — which Hobbs doubted could be accomplished. They estimated tax relief would amount to $1.5 billion over the next three years, and Republicans claim working families would feel the most benefit from the cuts.
“Politics are easy; governing is harder. We chose governing,” said Sen. President Warren Petersen (R-LD14). “We’re moving a budget that cuts taxes, funds core services, shrinks government, includes priorities both sides have raised, and gives Arizona a full path to finish the session.”
As budget talks have failed to progress in a meaningful way, the legislature stagnates under the weight of a bill moratorium.
In a statement issued Tuesday, Hobbs did acknowledge Republicans for working with her to adopt certain components of her preferred budget like middle class tax cuts and reductions to childcare cost. However, she disputed Republican leaders on their claims of fiscal responsibility.
She accused Republicans of siding with “billionaires, data centers, and special interests” as well as “kicking Arizonans off their healthcare and taking food off their tables.” The governor said she won’t engage in negotiations further unless they adopt her preferred budget.
Contentious aspects of the Republican-proposed budget included cuts to state agency budgets, and SNAP and Medicaid program funding.
“Until they also engage in good-faith negotiations rather than attempting to force through a partisan budget, I will be closely monitoring the situation in the coming days to determine whether the legislative majority is willing to negotiate in good-faith bipartisan negotiations and have the bill moratorium lifted,” said Hobbs.
NEW: @GovernorHobbs reacts to the newly released Republican budget: “Just like in Washington, they’re paying for tax breaks for billionaires, data centers and special interests by kicking Arizonans off their healthcare and taking food off their tables.” pic.twitter.com/8UlFIqa5S1
Hobbs also discussed the budget talks during a press conference for a separate topic on Tuesday, Reentry 2030. Hobbs tentatively praised Republicans for some concessions on their part, but generally was critical of them for balking at her $18.7 billion spending plan. A key part of that plan Hobbs hopes to win through in budget talks concerns draining the public land trust to boost K-12 education funding.
“I’m glad to see the Republicans have shown their budget proposal, there’s some things I’m encouraged about in their proposal, but across-the-board agency cuts is not one of them,” said Hobbs. “I’m hopeful that we can get back to the table and start having real conversations about a budget that works for Arizona.”
Legislative leaders have said Hobbs’ proposal is a nonstarter because the Public Land Trust was intended for long-term funding. Hobbs’ plan intends to renew funding through the yet-approved Proposition 123. Senate President Petersen said Hobbs’ plan wasn’t feasible and would push the state $1.5 million further into debt.
“We’re spending about $800 million less than what the governor has proposed, and the governor has proposed to raise taxes,” said House Speaker Montenegro (R-LD29) in an interview with Fox News.
“[H]er math doesn’t work,” said Petersen.
Hobbs has vetoed tax conformity efforts and walked away from budget negotiations multiple times since the start of the year.
The legislature began hearing budget bills on Tuesday during a joint hearing of the Senate and House Appropriations Committees.
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