Another poll shows former President Donald J. Trump with a growing lead in Arizona for the 2024 General Election rematch with President Joseph R. Biden.
Last week, a P2 Insights poll revealed that Trump led Biden by eleven percent (47-36) in a June 2024 survey. The poll was conducted between June 11-20 with likely voters in the all-important swing state.
Former DeSantis campaign pollster @ryan_tyson is out with a batch of swing state polls showing “not only is President Trump still edging out Joe Biden on the ballot test in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin – his lead has expanded in four of those five states” pic.twitter.com/LdheOvzcg2
The firm conducted a similar poll in May, which had Trump leading Biden by only three percent (41-38).
According to the numbers produced by this report, Trump is winning 87% of his 2020 Arizona voters, while only losing one percent of voters who cast their ballots for him in the most recent presidential contest. Meanwhile, Biden is only winning 81% of his 2020 Arizona voters, while losing six percent of his former ballot box supporters to his Republican opponent.
The memo from P2 Insights Partner, Ryan Tyson, states that “around 60% of swing state voters across all states agree that Joe Biden is too old to be an effective president and that he can’t handle four more years in the White House.” Tyson added that “Trump’s greatest advantage in this race remains that he is more trusted to handle the economy than Biden, [and that] positive perception of Trump’s economy outperforms his baseline image by roughly 10 percentage points in every swing state.” In June, Trump leads Biden by 22% (59-37) among Arizona voters who agreed that “the economy was better under Trump than Biden” compared to ten percent in May (52-42).
This new poll on the current state of the 2024 presidential race in Arizona came just before the first debate between Trump and Biden last Thursday night. In his conclusion for his latest polling memo, Tyson opined that “Joe Biden is in desperate need of a moment in Thursday night’s debate to turn his campaign around.” With Biden’s debate performance receiving harsh marks from nearly all sides following the event, it may be safe to surmise that the Democrat president may have lost even more ground in a swing state like Arizona per the analysis from Tyson’s survey.
In the Real Clear Polling average, Trump leads Biden by 5.8% in the Grand Canyon State. At this point in the 2020 campaign, Biden led Trump in Arizona by a 5% average, and Clinton led Trump by an average of .5% in 2016. In 2020, Biden went on to narrowly edge Trump by .3% in Arizona, and Trump defeated Clinton by 3.5% in the state for the 2016 contest.
Arizona’s eleven electoral college votes will be critical to securing the presidency. Both Republicans and Democrats realize the importance of this state and those votes and are deploying a massive number of resources for this race and many others that will determine the political future for the southwestern state.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
Arizona Republicans won a significant victory over the state’s Democrat attorney general in state court over a funding dispute for the recently approved budget.
Earlier this week, a Maricopa County Superior Court Judge ruled in favor of Republicans’ arguments after Attorney General Kris Mayes sued over a funding mechanism set in motion by the new budget that was negotiated by the state legislature and Governor Katie Hobbs.
🚨BREAKING- For the third time in three weeks, the courts have rejected bogus and overtly political “legal” arguments peddled by Attorney General Mayes.
Senate: 3 Mayes: 0
Just moments ago, a Maricopa County Superior Court judge correctly rejected claims made by AG Mayes that… pic.twitter.com/93JgeCJ0YW
Attorney General Mayes had filed suit after officials transferred $115 million in opioid settlement dollars to close funding shortfalls in the state’s appropriations.
“This was a frivolous case brought by the Attorney General,” said Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen. “Facts matter. Laws matter. And our taxpayers are best served when our elected officials uphold the rule of law. Once again, I’m grateful we have checks and balances in place to ensure this principle is followed.”
House Speaker Ben Toma said, “I’m pleased with the judge’s decision to dissolve the temporary restraining order, which AG Mayes wrongly sought. Now the funds will be lawfully spent by the Department of Corrections, as intended in the budget and to help individuals impacted by opioids.”
Previously, Petersen and Toma submitted a brief to the court, where they wrote, “Plaintiff Kris Mayes has no constitutional or statutory authority to unilaterally deploy attorneys to disrupt Arizona’s constitutionally mandated budgetary and legislative process – pursuant to which the Legislature and Governor develop public policy and institute a fiscal scheme to ensure those policies are carried out. Yet here, the Attorney General improperly seeks to use the judiciary as a tool to effectuate her unilateral dissatisfaction with the public policy decision made by the Legislature and Governor in the most recent general appropriations act, HB 2897 and the carrying out of other statutorily authorized duties.”
The Republicans explained that the opioid funds under dispute “are only to be transferred from one governmental account to another,” and that “the bill expressly limits the appropriated funds to Approved Purposes.”
The ruling from Judge Hannah overturned a temporary victory for Mayes last week, when a court commissioner had granted her office a temporary restraining order over the actions from the legislature and governor. In reacting to the previous decision, Mayes said, “The decision by the Governor and the Legislature to sweep opioid settlement funds to backfill budget deficits is illegal, and today I asked the court for an injunction to stop the transfer of these funds. In their rush to end the session, GOP leaders and the Governor ignored other viable options to balance the budget, such as utilizing the rainy-day fund, which has now reached approximately $1.4 billion. This is outrageous.”
Mayes added, “Every Arizonan should ask why the opioid funds were not protected and used to support our communities and prevent opioid use as intended. This decision violates the settlement agreements, and I am determined to stop it. That’s why I made the difficult decision to sue over this issue. This is too important, with too many lives at risk, to get wrong.”
This is the second year in a row that Mayes has been on the losing end of the state’s budget process. Last year, the second-year attorney general sent a letter to Governor Hobbs and the Arizona Legislature, expressing her alarm for the “Legislature sweeping the authority of the Attorney General to direct funds received through consent judgments against several pharmaceutical companies for their roles in the opioid crisis.”
She warned, “Sweeping this authority from the Attorney General would be a breach of the consent judgments, and as Attorney General I will not stand by and allow this to happen. I fully intend to consult with the Legislature as the judgments dictate. Any proposal that contradicts this provision by having the Legislature instead direct how the state funds will be used is not acceptable, and I am prepared to go to court to ensure that the State is able to obtain and properly direct those funds for opioid treatment, prevention and education if warranted.”
Republican State Representative David Livingston sent Mayes a letter in response to her 2023 threat, pointing out that the Legislature does, in fact, have a say in how the funds are used. He wrote, “Attorney General Mayes should learn the facts first, and accurately convey those facts in committee hearings, before making demands and threats to sue the Legislature and the Governor over the budget.”
Attorney General Mayes should learn the facts first, and accurately convey those facts in committee hearings, before making demands and threats to sue the Legislature and the Governor over the budget. @AZHouseGOPpic.twitter.com/SFnElYhUtv
Both the governor and Republicans in the Arizona Legislature have additional history with Mayes than at the point of last year’s episode, that may lend more toxicity to actions by all the parties involved in this political battle. Earlier this spring, Mayes secured indictments of two Republican State Senators over certain efforts undertaken in the aftermath of the 2020 General Election. Also, Mayes has been extremely vocal in attempting to lead an investigation of the Governor’s Office over allegations of impropriety and / or unlawful behavior from one of her state agencies.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
Arizona’s children may be safer from predators thanks to the work of one Republican state senator this legislative session.
This week, State Senator Janae Shamp touted the signing of her bill, SB 1232, which will “classify sexual conduct with a minor as a class 1 felony punishable by natural life imprisonment if the minor is 12 years old or younger and suffers serious physical injury” – according to the overview by the Arizona House of Representatives.
🚨FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Senator @AZSenatorShamp Champions One of the Toughest Laws in the Nation for Child Sex Offenders
Governor Katie Hobbs signed the bill into law on June 21.
“I’m incredibly grateful for this new law to crack down on these evil crimes. It’s heartbreaking such a law was even needed in the first place,” said Senator Shamp. “If a criminal sexually abuses a child so badly that it causes them serious physical injury, they should NEVER experience the free world again. I strongly believe this, which is why I worked to ensure these offenders face life in prison.”
Shamp added, “We are sending a message to the nation that in Arizona, these wicked acts will not be tolerated, and these monsters engaging in them will face the full force of the law. I dedicated this session to protect our innocent children from these animals, but I know there’s still more work to be done.”
In her press release, the first-term Republican state senator also reminded readers of two other bills she had sponsored this year, that had been signed into law by Hobbs. One was SB 1236, which “will soon require additional level one sex offenders convicted of Dangerous Crimes Against Children to be published on the internet sex offender website.” Another was SB 1404, which “will ensure schools are notified if a parent of a child attending that school is a registered sex offender convicted of a Dangerous Crime Against Children.”
Back in February, this legislation passed the Arizona Senate with an overwhelming 23-5 vote (with two members not voting). The bill received a green light from the Arizona House this month with a near-unanimous 57-1 result (with two members not voting).
On the Arizona Legislature’s Request to Speak system, representatives from Arizona Coalition to End Sexual and Domestic Violence, Middle Ground Prison Reform, American Civil Liberties Union of Arizona, Arizona National Organization for Women, State Conference NAACP, and Arizona Attorneys for Criminal Justice had signed in to oppose the proposal as it was being considered by the state house and senate. Christine Accurso endorsed the bill.
SB 1232 will go into effect 90 days from the adjournment of the 2024 Arizona Legislative Session, which occurred earlier this month.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
Thanks to a veto from the governor, Arizona’s attempt to find solutions for the future of its groundwater supply was marked ‘incomplete’ following the conclusion of the state’s legislative session.
Last week, Governor Katie Hobbs vetoed multiple pieces of legislation pertaining to the vital issue of water in the state of Arizona, while signing a series of those bills.
The most contentious of the latest round of vetoes appeared to be SB 1172, which would have “allow[ed] a person who owns land with an irrigation grandfathered right within an active management area to permanently retire the land from irrigation use and to retain a physical availability credit” – among other things, according to the purpose from the Arizona State Senate. The bill was sponsored by Senate President Pro Tempore T.J. Shope.
Senate President Warren Petersen was extremely disappointed in the governor’s veto of the proposal. He issued a statement over the past weekend, saying, “It’s incredibly disappointing the Governor did not sign SB 1172. Although we engaged her office on this proposal in January, they waited until May to do their due diligence and reneged last minute on an agreement. Her administration dropped the ball, and homebuyers will be the ones losing out because of her inaction.”
Petersen did note that Hobbs had signed three other groundwater-related bills, though he said that those proposals were meant to align with SB 1172 to have the maximum impact for the state. He added, “Three bills to increase housing supply while reducing groundwater pumping in Arizona, sponsored by Senate Leadership, were signed into law. All three measures transition higher-water-use land to lower-water- use housing developments through voluntary programs. While it was important for the state to look for new supplies, we get an equal benefit from reducing the demand on our aquafers. This legislation will allow Arizona to both conserve and grow. However, these bills were part of a package of four that would have made a far greater impact had they all been signed.”
In explaining why she had vetoed SB 1172, Hobbs wrote, “The concept at the core of this bill – conversion of agricultural lands to lower water use development – is a policy that has broad potential benefits and is one that my Administration supports. However, it is critical that the legislation be carefully crafted to ensure that the water conservation savings and consumer protections are guaranteed. It is clear that the unique data among Arizona’s Active Management Areas (AMAs) does not support universal adoption of this program across all four of the state’s initial AMAs (Phoenix, Pinal, Prescott, and Tucson), and that more time is needed to develop this concept in collaboration with stakeholders and lawmakers to ensure the legislation is crafted appropriately.”
The governor said that she “remain[s] committed to these discussions and finding a path forward to responsibly enact this concept.”
At the end of her veto letter to Arizona Legislative leadership, Hobbs highlighted that she had signed three water-related bills. She said, “While more work needs to be done on the ‘ag-to-urban’ legislation, I have signed several key pieces of legislation that promote responsible development and continued sustainable growth, including SB 1081, SB 1181, and SB 1242.”
Those bills were sponsored by Senators Sine Kerr, Petersen, and Shope.
The Republican Party of Arizona is fighting hard for Hispanic votes in the all-important 2024 November General Election.
Last week, the AZGOP released a Spanish-language ad, which will be running during the 2024 Copa America tournament. The ad features the chair of the state Republican Party, Gina Swoboda, and a Republican member of the Arizona House of Representatives, Steve Montenegro.
🚨 NEW AD: @AZGOP is hitting the airwaves during the 2024 @CopaAmerica_ENG with a Spanish-language ad! 📺🇺🇸
We’re committed to lowering the cost of living, empowering parents with education freedom, and making homeownership affordable for all Arizonans. pic.twitter.com/A6HXifHdR4
— Republican Party of Arizona (@AZGOP) June 22, 2024
In the short commercial, both Swoboda and Montenegro speak in Spanish to potential voters, noting the challenges facing everyone in the state – “high prices for food, gasoline, [and] homes; high crime; [and] protecting family rights in deciding what is the best education for their children.” They then highlight the commitment of the Arizona Republican Party “to protecting the American Dream” and coming alongside all families to help “achieve a better economy…in Arizona.”
The Pima County Democratic Party mocked the commercial from its state political rival. The “X” account for the county party wrote, “Spolier Alert. They’ll make a bunch of empty promises all while they get busy deporting your family members.”
Spolier Alert. 🚨🚨They'll make a bunch of empty promises all while they get busy deporting your family members. https://t.co/Qg4I8DxKBZ
— Pima County Democratic Party (@PimaDems) June 22, 2024
Republican State Senator Janae Shamp praised the effort, saying, “Keep the American Dream alive!!”
Recent polls across the country have indicated that Democrats may be losing support among the key Hispanic voting bloc in the upcoming election – and that Republicans have been picking up some of those voters. Last week, a poll from Equis of registered Latino voters showed that a majority of respondents have more trust for former President Donald J. Trump over President Joseph R. Biden when it comes to the issue of immigration (41-38).
An April poll from the New York Times / Siena College showed that Biden may only have a nine-point advantage over Trump with Hispanics (50-41). Also, a poll from Axios / Ipsos around that time showed Biden dropping twelve points from his previous support from Hispanics, falling to within single digits of his competitor (41-32).
Any shift in any significant voting bloc in November’s General Election could be the difference between Republican and Democrat victories and majorities in the crucial Grand Canyon swing state. Trump and Biden are vying for Arizona’s eleven Electoral College votes, and those tallies to the national total have been very hard to come by in the past two presidential contests. Additionally, Arizona has a very competitive U.S. Senate seat up for grabs, the control of the state legislature in the balance, and multiple propositions to determine state policies and constitutional amendments for the future.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
