By Arizona House Majority Leader Michael Carbone |
America cannot remain a great power if young people cannot afford to marry and raise children.
Building more homes, especially modest starter homes, is essential to helping young Americans put down roots and build a future. The consequences of our housing shortage reach far beyond local zoning decisions. They affect our families, our population, and ultimately our national interest.
The warning signs are unmistakable. The United States recorded about 3.61 million births in 2025, down one percent from 2024, while the general fertility rate fell to 53.1 births per 1,000 women ages 15–44. The Congressional Budget Office now projects that, beginning in 2030, annual deaths will exceed births, putting the U.S. population at risk of shrinking for the first time in the country’s 250-year history.
At the same time, the first rung of the housing ladder is disappearing. Freddie Mac estimates America is short roughly 3.7 million homes. The National Association of Realtors reports in its 2025 survey that first-time buyers accounted for a record-low 21 percent of purchasers, while their median age reached a record high of 40.
Homeownership is not a prerequisite for marriage or having children. But space, stability, affordability, and financial security matter when couples decide whether to marry and have children. History demonstrates how access to homeownership can influence decisions about having children. A 2025 National Bureau of Economic Research paper estimates that the expansion of FHA and VA mortgage insurance produced about three million additional births from 1935 through 1957, roughly 10 percent of the excess births associated with the baby boom.
For too many young Americans, buying a first home and starting a family are becoming goals they must postpone. Those delays have consequences for America’s future.
Strong families are the foundation of a strong country. Children first learn responsibility, discipline, sacrifice, trust, and the importance of caring for others at home. Studies also show that homeownership increases personal responsibility and encourages people to become more invested in their communities. These values shape the next generation of Americans and strengthen our country as a whole.
America’s ability to compete with rival nations also depends on its people: workers, engineers, entrepreneurs, taxpayers, caregivers, and future service members. Extensive research shows that children raised in stable, intact families generally have better outcomes across a wide range of measures. Strong families help prepare the next generation to take on the responsibilities of citizenship, contribute to our economy, and defend our country.
But as fewer children are born, America faces a smaller next generation, making it harder to sustain the workforce and leadership our country will need. Housing alone cannot reverse that trend, but policies that artificially restrict construction make it harder for young Americans to settle down and raise children. The consequences extend far beyond the housing market.
Foreign adversaries know it.
In 2024, three House committees investigated Chinese funding of U.S.-based environmental NGOs: Energy and Commerce; Science, Space, and Technology; and Natural Resources. Environmental organizations and litigants have used climate, habitat, land-conservation, water, and anti-sprawl arguments to challenge major housing developments.
Arizona offers a clear example. According to the Common Sense Institute, our state faces a long-term shortage of over 100,000 housing units, yet hundreds of thousands of acres of potentially developable State Trust Land sit near existing urban areas. Many of the individuals who wrote our state’s groundwater laws are also ardent anti-sprawl activists. They believe building new homes outside urban areas is “unsustainable” and have weaponized those laws to block development in more affordable areas. When government restricts where homes can be built, young families have fewer affordable options.
Anti-sprawl environmental advocacy deserves serious scrutiny, especially when American growth and development are at stake. America must reject efforts, whether foreign-funded or domestic, that use environmental arguments to obstruct new housing, essential infrastructure, and the resources American families need for an abundant and prosperous future.
If we believe in strong families and a strong America, our policies should reflect those priorities. We need to open more land for development, invest in infrastructure and expand water supplies, speed up permitting, and make it possible to build millions more homes that Americans can afford.
Housing affordability is essential to the national interest. America’s future depends on young people being able to afford a home and raise a family.
Michael Carbone is a Republican member of the Arizona House of Representatives representing Legislative District 25 and serves as House Majority Leader. Follow him on X at @MichaelCarbone.
