By Matthew Holloway |

The latest poll released from Noble Predictive Insights has shown that, when compared to a pre-abortion ban reversal poll last year, public opinion on abortion in Arizona has remained largely the same, with the state’s apparent rejection of abortion on demand or “legal under any circumstances” remaining consistent with 60% of respondents. Of the voters opposed, 11% said abortion should be illegal regardless of circumstances while 49% said it should be permitted “only under certain circumstances.”

The poll, conducted by NPI from May 7-14, compared consistently with a similar February poll that predated the state Supreme Court ruling on the 1864 abortion ban re-activated by the reversal of the Roe v. Wade ruling. David Byler, NPI Chief of Research said in a press release, “When Roe was overturned, a significant chunk of the electorate moved left on abortion. But the 1864 law didn’t have a comparable effect in Arizona. The governor and legislature moved quickly on the 1864 law, so it didn’t change the landscape much.”

Among the voters who agreed that abortion is acceptable under “certain circumstances” the support for each reason broke down as:

• Cases where the mother’s life was endangered (85%)
• Instances of rape (82%)
• Cases of incest (78%)
• Babies at risk of severe complications (57%)
• Within a certain timeframe (45%)
  • 47% support within the first 6 weeks of pregnancy (within the first missed menstrual cycle/prior to a heartbeat).
  • 43% support up to 15 weeks (roughly the end of the first trimester of pregnancy).
  • Support significantly drops off at 24 weeks or late-term with only 9% and again at 40 weeks or full-term at just 1%.

The pro-abortion politicos and activists who are working on a ballot initiative to enshrine a “right to abortion” up to any point before fetal viability (typically between 22-24 weeks) are likely to find the battle a contentious one with Arizonans evenly split according to NPI at 41% in favor and 41% against, fighting for the 18% of undecided voters.

As noted above, only 9% of those polled were comfortable with the 22-24 week timeframe with a majority of the support resting at the six and fifteen week marks. Arizona’s current statute places the limit at fifteen weeks already.

As reported by Tucson.com, the language of the initiative could prove even more problematic with the determining point of “fetal viability” being “in the good faith judgment of a treating health care professional, is necessary to protect the life or physical or mental health of the pregnant individual.”

The poll also indicated that abortion, though important, is hardly an Arizonan’s top priority. Twenty-two percent of registered voters in Arizona said that immigration was the most important of their top three issues, with abortion only amounting to 12%. Inflation weighed heavily with 19% of voters naming it as their top issue. Affordable housing accounted for 12% of the first choice with climate change, taxes, national defense, healthcare, education, the income gap, LGBT rights, and gun policies all coming it at single digits.

Simply put, Tuesday’s poll appears to indicate that the upcoming election in Arizona could be far more decisively driven by economic factors than abortion, an issue where Arizonans’ opinions seem to be largely locked-in.

Matthew Holloway is a reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.