A border security ballot measure might be headed for victory this coming November if numbers from a recent poll hold up.
This week, Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) released a poll, showing that Proposition 314 (the Secure the Border Act) was receiving 63% support for passage. Only 16% of respondents indicated that they were opposing the measure at the ballot box.
According to a press release issued by NPI, “Not all components of the expansive Prop 314 are equally popular. According to the poll, supporters of the measure most strongly back two of its planks: holding drug dealers responsible for the death of a person who consumes a drug containing fentanyl (77% support), and requiring employers to verify the immigration status of workers (75% support). Their feelings are more mixed (56% support) about reforms surrounding how migrants obtain public benefits. Among those who oppose Prop 314, 31% oppose the punishments for fentanyl dealers, 47% are against immigration status verification in the workplace, and 64% oppose the portion determining how migrants obtain public benefits.”
“Opponents will have trouble pushing the argument ‘people are only supporting this because of the fentanyl stuff, they don’t care about the immigration’ – that’s what voters like most about Prop 314,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “Prop 314 is popular across party lines, and that is a difficult trend to disrupt with only a couple of months until Election Day.”
Proposition 314 was referred to the ballot by Republicans in the Arizona Legislature after Democrat Governor Katie Hobbs and left-wing legislators rebuffed most efforts from conservative lawmakers to pass legislation over the past two years to help secure the border and give law enforcement more tools to protect their communities. After the measure was transmitted to the Arizona Secretary of State, progressive interest groups opposed to the efforts challenged the legislation in court in an attempt to keep it from the ballot. However, multiple state courts rejected those lawsuits and gave the greenlight for voter consideration of Prop 314 in the November General Election.
Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen, who was instrumental in making sure Prop 314 made the ballot, reacted to the news of the NPI polling, telling AZ Free News, “The polling goes hand in hand from what I am hearing from my constituents. They are worried about border security. I think it shows how out of touch our democratic legislators are at the Capitol. Every single Democrat voted ‘no’ on this measure. I’m glad the voters will get to decide this.”
House Speaker Ben Toma, who was the sponsor of the legislative vehicle for the measure, added, “The polling is consistent with what we’ve been hearing from Arizonans all along—they are frustrated with the open border policies of the Biden-Harris administration and are demanding change. They want a secure border and safer communities. Proposition 314 offers meaningful, commonsense reforms to protect our communities, and I am confident it will pass in November.”
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
A recent report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) suggests that the ongoing illegal immigration surge at the southern border will reduce the federal deficit by a staggering $897 billion over the next decade.
At first glance, this figure might seem like a silver lining to this national crisis. However, a closer examination reveals a more complex and concerning picture and reveals this report to be another example of the government trying to conceal the truth from American citizens.
While the CBO projects an increase in revenues of $1.175 trillion and an increase in mandatory spending and spending on net interest of $278 billion over the next 10 years, these numbers fail to capture the full scope of the situation. The report’s limitations and glaring omissions paint an incomplete picture that may lead to misguided policy decisions if Congress does not understand the actual fiscal impacts of the border crisis. By publishing such an incomplete report, CBO is playing a role in covering up the Biden-Harris border crisis and not giving Congress the information it needs to fix the problem.
One glaring omission is the exclusion of discretionary spending impacts. The CBO acknowledges that the immigration surge will likely put pressure on many programs funded through discretionary appropriations. In fact, CBO estimates that increased discretionary funding as a result of the border surge could total around $200 billion over the 2024-2034 period. This substantial sum is mentioned but not factored into the deficit reduction calculation because, as CBO says, “no clear basis exists for projecting how the immigration surge will affect [congressional] funding decisions.”
Moreover, the report “does not include estimates of the surge’s effects on state and local budgets.” The CBO itself admits that “[r]esearch has generally found that increases in immigration raise state and local governments’ costs more than their revenues, and CBO expects that finding to hold in the case of the current immigration surge.” New York City alone spent $4.3 billion from July 2022 to March 2024 to accommodate immigrants and comply with existing housing policies. Extrapolating this to other cities over a decade paints a sobering picture of the financial burden on local communities.
The state of Texas was forced to take action on its own. First with Operation Lone Star (OLS), a response to the border crisis triggered by the Biden-Harris administration’s failure to enforce federal laws along the border. OLS has cost Texans about $11 billion and that’s just to secure the border. That does not include costs to the state’s health care, education, and criminal justice systems — which increase with the addition of aliens who have been let in by the Biden-Harris administration. The CBO report does not adequately assess or include these costs and they can be found in every state.
The revenue calculations assume lower tax compliance rates among the population who entered the nation via the border crisis. This raises questions about the accuracy of the projected $1.2 trillion in additional revenue.
Beyond the fiscal impacts, the report hints at broader economic consequences. The illegal immigration surge is expected to lead to lower productivity, reduce average wage growth (particularly for non-college educated workers), higher interest rates, and increased medical and food prices. These factors could have far-reaching effects on the American economy and the well-being of citizens.
Perhaps most concerning is the CBO’s own admission that its “estimates of the budgetary effects of the immigration surge are highly uncertain.” The report lists numerous “[m]ajor sources of uncertainty,” including the number of aliens who have entered the country, the duration of the border crisis itself, the changing immigration status of individuals, and their impact on productivity. Essentially, many metrics crucial to the estimate are shrouded in uncertainty and the authors of the report knew it and still published these estimates that claim mass illegal immigration is good for the deficit.
Making policy decisions based on such questionable projections, where the political left has clearly put its thumb on the scale, could have disastrous consequences and exacerbate existing problems. We must demand a more comprehensive analysis that accounts for all costs — both seen and unseen. Not a report that is politically appealing to the left’s narrative on illegal immigration.
The border crisis is not just about numbers on a balance sheet. As we debate immigration policy, we must consider not just the potential fiscal benefits but also the hidden costs and societal impacts. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated there were 74,702 fentanyl overdose deaths in the United States last year — a drug we know flows in through our open southern border.
Human trafficking and smuggling into the United States is a booming multi-billion dollar business for Mexican cartels. We must end this crisis now. When comparing the fiscal impacts to the human toll, money seems secondary and that is true, but understanding the monetary effects is important to solving the larger problem.
The CBO report should be seen as deficient and, overall, as a liability since it does not give Congress the information it needs to take action. The future of our nation depends on getting this right.
With an honest and complete assessment, we can get good legislation like the Secure the Border Act signed into law, force strong executive actions from future presidents, and keep Americans safe. These policies will ensure our nation knows who is coming in, and what the impacts of that are to U.S. citizens. But we need the CBO and Washington to stop playing politics with vital information.
Arizona Senate Republicans won a legal challenge to keep their border security ballot measure on track for voters to decide its fate in the November General Election.
🚨 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: 'Secure the Border Act' Withstands Frivolous Constitutional Challenge, Will Appear on November Ballot
Last week, a Maricopa County Superior Court judge issued an order on an effort to stop HCR 2060 from being considered by state voters this fall, “denying applications for preliminary applications for preliminary injunction and declaratory judgment relief” in Living United for Change in Arizona v. Fontes.
In his order, Judge Scott Minder wrote, “Arizona’s constitution requires HCR 2060 to ‘embrace but one subject and matters properly connected therewith.’ HCR 2060 is intended to refer ‘responses to harms relating to an unsecured border’ to the people of Arizona for the November 2024 ballot. In this challenge, Arizona law requires Plaintiffs to overcome the strong presumption that the act is constitutional. Because a natural connection exists, i.e., all provisions are ‘responses to harms relating to an unsecured border,’ Plaintiffs have not met their burden to show a violation. Absent other challenges, the policies of HCR 2060 should be left to the voters.”
BREAKING: A victory for the citizens of Arizona! Late today, a superior court judge blocked a frivolous lawsuit filed by radical left activists in an effort to deprive Arizona voters of the opportunity to take border security matters into their own hands this November with HCR… pic.twitter.com/n3ORsEicEN
Judge Minder ruled “in favor of the defendants on all counts because the parties agreed to combine the trial on the merits with the argument for the preliminary injunction applications.”
Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen issued the following statement after the superior court judge ruled: “It’s unthinkable Democrats and our Governor would stand with Biden and radical left activists, instead of the hardworking Arizona families who are begging for their elected leaders to secure our border and promote safety within our communities. As expected, the court ruled in favor of sanity instead of chaos, and we’re grateful we are able to provide this opportunity to voters to have the final say on.”
“My colleagues and I worked tirelessly this session to create impactful legislation to help secure our border because the people of Arizona are desperately asking for it,” said Senator Janae Shamp. “The attempts from Arizona Democrats and radical left activists to deprive voters of the opportunity to decide on this matter is truly appalling. From the spreading of misinformation to the filing of frivolous lawsuits, they will stop at nothing to keep our border wide open and perpetuate Biden’s border crisis. The federal government has neglected the safety of our citizens, and the time has come to empower Arizonans to fight back against the tyranny. I wholeheartedly believe the Secure the Border Act will save countless lives, save billions in taxpayer dollars, and strengthen our national security.”
“While the Biden Administration continues to turn their backs on our law enforcement, we will not,” said Senator David Gowan. “These men and women are putting their lives on the line to protect our communities from the deadly crimes associated with the border crisis, and they deserve the tools and support they need to do their job. Our law enforcement reached a breaking point a long time ago. It’s now up to everyday Arizonans to stop the lawlessness.”
Last month, former President Donald J. Trump was asked about this ballot measure. He replied, “I endorse anything that is going to make it more difficult for people to come into our country illegally.”
"I endorse anything that is going to make it more difficult for people to come into our country illegally."
We asked President Trump during an exclusive interview whether or not he would support HCR 2060, a measure that will now be on the November ballot and would allow local… pic.twitter.com/wDUj8PPJcx
The efforts from Arizona legislators to send this referral to state voters came months after Governor Katie Hobbs vetoed SB 1231, the Arizona Border Invasion Act, which would have “ma[de] it unlawful for a person who is an alien (unlawful immigrant) to enter Arizona from a foreign nation at any location other than a lawful port of entry and outline[d] penalties for violations of illegally entering Arizona and provide[d] immunity from civil liability and indemnification for state and local government officials, employees and contractors who enforce this prohibition” – according to the purpose from the state Senate.
Senator Janae Shamp, the sponsor of SB 1231, had vowed in the aftermath of the governor’s veto that members of her party would continue to push forward solutions to combat the border crisis. Republicans in both the Arizona House of Representatives and Senate came together to pass HCR 2060 earlier this spring, sending the border-related policies to the November General Election ballot.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
Arizona’s Republican Senate President is confident that a recently passed measure dealing with border security will survive legal scrutiny if passed by state voters in November.
Over the weekend, State Senate President Warren Petersen issued a statement after the Arizona House of Representatives put the finishing touches on a ballot referral, HCR 2060, to help law enforcement better protect citizens from the dangerous effects of the porous border.
Petersen said, “After Biden, our Governor, and Democrat lawmakers blocked all efforts to safeguard our citizens against the rampant crime from the border crisis, we’re relieved to announce the Secure the Border Act officially passed out of the Arizona Legislature this week and will head directly to the November ballot, bypassing the Governor. During the 12 years I’ve served in state office, never has this crisis been as dangerously severe as it is now, costing Arizona taxpayers more than $3 billion in 2023 alone.
The Senate President added, “Soon, Arizona voters will have an opportunity to take matters into their own hands in response to our federal government refusing to do its job. It’s unfortunate radical special interest groups are suing to try to stop our citizens from voting on an issue they consider a top priority.”
The suit that Petersen referenced was filed by Living United for Change in Arizona, which is a nonprofit corporation in the state. Victory PAC and two other qualified electors joined as plaintiffs in the state.
Democrat State Representative Oscar De Los Santos was one of the plaintiffs in the suit. He posted on his “X” account that he had “joined a lawsuit filed by LUCHA AZ challenging the constitutionality of HCR 2060, one of the most racially discriminatory, anti-immigrant pieces of legislation in Arizona history.
🚨 BREAKING: Earlier today, I joined a lawsuit filed by @lucha_az challenging the constitutionality of HCR 2060, one of the most racially discriminatory, anti-immigrant pieces of legislation in Arizona history. pic.twitter.com/pt1ZIZtJuA
— Rep. Oscar De Los Santos (@os_delossantos) June 5, 2024
Explaining more about the legal challenge, De Los Santos wrote, “We allege that HCR 2060 – which embraces a hodgepodge of numerous and varied policies – violates Arizona’s single-subject rule, a provision of our state’s Constitution which stipulates that any one act must deal with only one issue.”
We allege that HCR 2060—which embraces a hodgepodge of numerous and varied policies—violates Arizona’s single-subject rule, a provision of our state’s Constitution which stipulates that any one act must deal with only one issue.
— Rep. Oscar De Los Santos (@os_delossantos) June 5, 2024
One of De Los Santos’ colleagues on the other side of the aisle, State Representative Quang Nguyen, countered the Democrats’ perspective, stating, “I’m an immigrant; elected and re-elected as a rep of a rural county; not caucasian; chair of jud; twice selected as an emerging leader nationally. NO, HCR 2060 is not an immigration bill and it is NOT anti-immigrants. It is anti-criminals.”
I’m an immigrant; elected and re-elected as a rep of a rural county; not caucasian; chair of jud; twice selected as an emerging leader nationally. NO, HCR2060 is not an immigration bill and it is NOT anti-immigrants. It is anti-criminals. https://t.co/mE2JvyH0M6
President Petersen projected confidence in the success of his side’s proposal going before Arizona voters to deal with the border crisis. He said, “We’re confident the Secure the Border Act will survive any scrutiny in court and will be approved by voters.”
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
Arizona voters will have the opportunity to empower local law enforcement to better secure their communities after the state legislature sent a measure to the November ballot.
On Tuesday, the Arizona House of Representatives passed HCR 2060, the Secure the Border Act, sending the proposal to the November General Election ballot. The vote was entirely along party lines.
🚨Arizona House Gives Final Approval to HCR 2060, Sends “Secure the Border Act” to Voters
“Arizonans need to ask Democrats like President Joe Biden and Governor Katie Hobbs why they are fighting to keep America’s border wide open. It’s unsafe, it’s unsecure, it’s un-American,… pic.twitter.com/MgX7L3f0cI
— Arizona House Republicans (@AZHouseGOP) June 4, 2024
House Speaker Ben Toma, who sponsored the original version of the ballot referral earlier this year, lauded the progress of the measure. Toma said, “Arizonans have had enough and want change. They want safe communities and a secure border. House Republicans do too. That’s why we crafted HCR 2060, the Secure the Border Act, a ballot referral with meaningful reforms to protect the integrity of Arizona’s workforce, strengthen criminal laws, and reinforce the rule of law in this state. Today’s final passage sends this Act to the ballot this November, so the will of Arizona voters is heard.”
The state House gallery was closed during the debate and subsequent vote for the bill, and Democrats made sure their displeasure was known. State Representative Alma Hernandez said, “Shameful. This is the people’s house. The public should have the right to be there. I don’t remember the last time I was here in the past six years when the gallery was closed to the public. They do not want the public watching. If they were so proud of the bill we are going to vote on today, there would be no reason to close down the gallery.”
Shameful. This is the people's house. The Public should have the right to be there. I don’t remember the last time I was here in the past six years when the gallery was closed to the public. They do not want the public watching. If they were so proud of the bill we are going to… https://t.co/C1UVHU35gP
— (((Rep.Alma Hernandez))) (@almaforarizona) June 4, 2024
The Arizona House Republicans Caucus “X” account responded to the accusations, writing, “Due to security concerns prompted by the shameful and illegally disruptive conduct by Democrats and their leftist allies, the House gallery is not open today. However, anyone who wants to come down to the House of Representatives and watch democracy live in action is welcome and the lights are on.”
Due to security concerns prompted by the shameful and illegally disruptive conduct by Democrats and their leftist allies, the House gallery is not open today.
However, anyone who wants to come down to the House of Representatives and watch democracy live in action is welcome… https://t.co/HVrnN4BdBc
— Arizona House Republicans (@AZHouseGOP) June 4, 2024
During final consideration of HCR 2060 in the Arizona Senate last month, a group of protestors disrupted the legislative process with their shouting against the measure, forcing security to remove them from the gallery.
Arizona Senate Republicans also cheered on their colleagues in the other chamber for approving of this border-related ballot measure. After the vote, Senate President Warren Petersen and other Senators issued statements of support for the House’s action to send HCR 2060 to Arizona voters in November. Petersen said, “In the 12 years I’ve served here at the Arizona Legislature, never has the border crisis been as dangerously severe as it is now, costing Arizona taxpayers more than $3 billion in 2023 alone. As soon as Joe Biden took office, he rolled out the welcome mat for illegal crossings and criminal activity. Now, just months away from an election, he issues yet another executive order so that we’ll all of a sudden believe he cares about the chaos he’s constructed. The citizens of this state aren’t buying it, and they will take border security matters into their own hands this November.”
Democrat Governor Katie Hobbs, however, was not pleased with the result. In a series of posts on her official “X” account, Hobbs said, “As I’ve said time and time again: HCR 2060 will hurt Arizona businesses, send jobs out of state, make it more difficult for law enforcement to do their jobs, and bust the state’s budget. It will not secure our border. I have listened to the needs of border law enforcement and have done everything in my power to support their efforts to maintain a safe, secure, and humane border. What’s clear from my conversations with law enforcement on the ground is that HCR 2060 is not the answer.”
As I’ve said time and time again: HCR2060 will hurt Arizona businesses, send jobs out of state, make it more difficult for law enforcement to do their jobs, and bust the state’s budget. It will not secure our border.
— Governor Katie Hobbs (@GovernorHobbs) June 4, 2024
Attorney General Kris Mayes, also a Democrat, echoed Hobbs’ sentiments about the measure, stating, “Further straining law enforcement resources while implementing a measure that could lead to racial profiling is not the answer to creating safer communities. HCR 2060 is a political distraction that will sow seeds of bias and fear without fixing the issues it claims to address.”
Further straining law enforcement resources while implementing a measure that could lead to racial profiling is not the answer to creating safer communities. HCR 2060 is a political distraction that will sow seeds of bias and fear without fixing the issues it claims to address. https://t.co/k2kjIt8Aj1
— AZ Attorney General Kris Mayes (@AZAGMayes) June 4, 2024
The top political party organizations in Arizona also took opposing sides on HCR 2060. The Republican Party of Arizona posted, “It’s long past time to protect our communities, secure our borders, and give Arizonans a voice.”
🚨 @AZHouseGOP just passed #HCR2060, the "Secure the Border Act," and it's headed to the ballot this November.
It's long past time to protect our communities, secure our borders, and give Arizonans a voice. 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/EtIqeYted1
— Republican Party of Arizona (@AZGOP) June 4, 2024
The Arizona Democratic Party countered with their own reaction to the passage of the measure, writing, “Today, Republicans again voted to bring back SB 1070 era immigration politics by introducing a ballot referral that mirrors a Texas Law allowing local law enforcement to racially profile people.”
Today, Republicans again voted to bring back SB1070 era immigration politics, by introducing a ballot referral that mirrors a Texas Law allowing local law enforcement to racially profile people.
— Arizona Democratic Party (@azdemparty) June 4, 2024
The efforts from Arizona legislators to send this referral to state voters comes months after Governor Katie Hobbs vetoed SB 1231, the Arizona Border Invasion Act, which would have “ma[de] it unlawful for a person who is an alien (unlawful immigrant) to enter Arizona from a foreign nation at any location other than a lawful port of entry and outline[d] penalties for violations of illegally entering Arizona and provide[d] immunity from civil liability and indemnification for state and local government officials, employees and contractors who enforce this prohibition” – according to the purpose from the state Senate.
Senator Janae Shamp, the sponsor of SB 1231, had vowed in the aftermath of the governor’s veto that members of her party would continue to push forward solutions to combat the border crisis. This week, Shamp took a victory lap after the state House gave the green light to HCR 2060, stating, “The time has come to empower Arizonans to fight back against the tyranny. I wholeheartedly believe the Secure the Border Act will save countless lives, save billions in taxpayer dollars, and strengthen our national security. We must stop the invasion now, otherwise, our beloved Arizona as we know it will be no more.”
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
