Maricopa County political races are essentially in a dead heat with less than two months until Election Day.
Earlier this month, Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) released its survey on Maricopa County races, showing Republicans and Democrats locked in a tight battle for all races.
According to NPI, the Maricopa County Sheriff’s race was tied with Republican Jerry Sheridan and Democrat Tyler Kamp tied at thirty-five percent each, with twenty-four percent undecided. Kamp has a twelve percent lead with independents, with thirty-six percent of that voting share undecided.
Incumbent Republican Maricopa County Attorney Rachel Mitchell leads Democrat Tamika Wooten by two percent (37-35%), with twenty-one percent undecided. Wooten has a ten percent lead with independents, with twenty-nine percent of that voting share undecided.
Democrat Gregory Freeman might be the frontrunner in the Maricopa County Assessor’s race, with a three-point advantage over incumbent Republican Eddie Cook (36-33%). There is twenty-six percent undecided in this race. Freeman holds a fifteen-point lead over Cook with independents, with forty percent undecided.
And in the Maricopa County Recorder’s contest, Democrat Tim Stringham leads Republican Justin Heap by four percent (38-34%), with twenty-two percent undecided. Stringham enjoys a fifteen percent lead over Heap with independents, with thirty-five percent of that voting share undecided.
“These races are incredibly close. In each one, the leading candidate is ahead by a low single-digit margin. With a high number of undecideds and more than two months between fielding this poll and Election Day – this poll just doesn’t point to a clear winner,” said Mike Noble, NPI President & CEO. “But historical data might tell us more.”
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
Two ballot referrals from the Arizona Legislature may be on thin ice as voters prepare their decisions for November’s General Election.
A poll released this week from Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) showed that both Proposition 135 and Proposition 137 were underwater with respondents, though many voters remain undecided.
According to the Arizona Secretary of State, Prop 135 would “terminate governor’s emergency powers, except for powers relating to war, fire, or flood, 30 days after the governor’s proclamation, unless extended by the legislature; [and] requires the governor to call a special session upon presentment of a petition signed by at least one-third of the members of the legislature.”
The NPI survey shows that 29% of respondents support the measure, compared to 32% who are opposed. Thirty percent of respondents are undecided on how they would vote.
“Many conservatives haven’t forgotten COVID,” said NPI Chief of Research David Byler. “Memories of lockdowns – combined with a Democrat in the governor’s mansion – make sense of the partisan divide we see on this issue.”
The Arizona Legislature referred this proposal to the Secretary of State on June 13, 2023 (HCR 2039).
According to the Arizona Secretary of State, Prop 137 would “eliminate judicial terms and regular retention elections and nullif[y] the results of the 2024 judicial retention elections, for Arizona Supreme Court Justices, Court of Appeals Judges, and Superior Court Judges in counties with over 250,000 persons.”
For this proposition, the NPI poll shows that 31% of respondents would support the measure, compared to 38% who are opposed to it. Twenty-four percent of voters appear to be undecided.
“While about 1 in 10 voters say they wouldn’t vote on Prop 135 or 137, the large shares of voters who are still unsure how they will vote on each measure will determine whether or not these measures pass come November,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO.
The Arizona Legislature referred this proposal to the Secretary of State on June 13, 2024 (SCR 1044).
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
