The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) March Jobs Report, released earlier this week, shows the Small Business Employment Index declined 1.9 points to 101.6. While the index pulled back from February, it remains above the 2025 average of 101.2 and the long-term historical average of 100.
In March, a seasonally adjusted 32% of small business owners reported having job openings they could not fill, down just 1 point from the prior month but still well above the historical average of 24%. Of those, 27% had openings for skilled workers (down 1 point), and 12% had openings for unskilled labor (up 2 points).
“While small businesses are not hiring extensively, they continue to face difficulties related to labor cost and quality,” stated Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Despite the current stagnant employment growth, economic conditions could change rapidly.”
NFIB State Director Chad Heinrich added, “The numbers tell a clear story — small businesses want to hire, but qualified applicants are hard to find. Add the uncertainty around tax conformity, and owners simply can’t plan with confidence. Inaction at the Capitol has a real cost.”
A seasonally adjusted net 12% of owners reported plans to create new jobs over the next three months, unchanged from February and near the historical average of net 11%. Overall, 52% of owners said they were hiring or trying to hire in March, down 2 points from the previous month.
Among those attempting to hire, 45% reported few or no qualified applicants for the open positions, down 1 point from February. Specifically, 22% reported few qualified applicants (down 3 points) and 23% reported none (up 2 points).
Labor quality remained a top concern, with 15% of small business owners citing it as their single most important problem—unchanged from February and above the historical average of 12%. This marks the first time since December 2016 that labor quality has consistently registered at or above 15%. Meanwhile, 10% of owners identified labor costs as their top problem, up 1 point from February.
On the compensation front, a seasonally adjusted net 33% of owners reported raising worker pay in March, down 1 point from February. Looking ahead, a net 18% plan to increase compensation over the next three months, down 4 points from the prior month and the lowest reading since July 2025. Despite the recent softening, both actual and planned compensation levels remain above their historical averages.
“Employment growth has stagnated, as hiring plans continue to slide toward the historical average,” the report noted. Job openings have reached their lowest levels since the recovery from the COVID-19 recession.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
The U.S. added 178,000 jobs in March, with gains driven by the private sector, while federal employment declined and labor force participation edged slightly lower, according to the Joint Economic Committee.
The report shows job growth rebounded following a weaker February. Private employers added 186,000 jobs, while government employment declined by 8,000 positions.
In a statement posted to X, the JEC Republicans announced the findings, “Beating Expectations!”
178K Jobs Added in March, Beating Expectations! The unemployment rate ticked down slightly from 4.4% to 4.3% while the labor force participation rate dropped again by 0.1pp from 62% to 61.9%. https://t.co/JDMVLi50QA
— Joint Economic Committee Republicans (@JECRepublicans) April 3, 2026
The unemployment rate decreased slightly from 4.4 percent in February to 4.3 percent in March. The labor force participation rate declined by 0.1 percentage points to 61.9 percent.
The broader U-6 measure of unemployment, which includes underemployed and marginally attached workers, increased from 7.9 percent to 8.0 percent.
Revisions to prior months showed weaker job performance than initially reported in February. Job losses for that month were revised downward by 41,000, from a decline of 92,000 to a decline of 133,000 jobs. January’s figures were revised upward by 34,000, bringing total job gains for that month to 160,000.
CNN Senior Reporter Matt Egan told audiences Friday, “The job market bounced back in a big way in March. And that is good news. Really, blowing away expectations.”
President Trump nearly TRIPLED job expectations in March
CNN: "I mean the expectation was what? 60,000 jobs, and it's 178,000…WOW!"
Wage growth continued on a year-over-year basis. From March 2025 to March 2026, average nominal weekly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 3.52 percent, with hourly earnings rising by the same percentage.
For production and nonsupervisory employees, average weekly earnings increased by 3.69 percent, while hourly earnings rose by 3.38 percent over the same period.
Sector-level data showed gains concentrated in specific industries. From February to March, private education and health services added 91,000 jobs, while leisure and hospitality added 44,000.
Losses were recorded in federal government employment, which declined by 18,000 jobs, and in financial activities, which fell by 15,000.
On a year-over-year basis, private education and health services added 663,000 jobs, and leisure and hospitality added 176,000. Federal government employment declined by 330,000 over the same period, while trade, transportation, and utilities decreased by 154,000 jobs.
Job openings declined during the most recent reporting period. From January to February 2026, total nonfarm job openings decreased by 358,000 to 6.88 million. The job openings rate declined by 0.2 percentage points to 4.2 percent.
Sector data for job openings showed increases in other services, which added 77,000 openings, and professional and business services, which added 64,000. Declines were led by leisure and hospitality, down 213,000 openings, and private education and health services, down 78,000.
In a statement, White House spokesman Kush Desai said, “The March jobs report blew out expectations with strong construction job growth and a surge in manufacturing job creation as trillions of dollars in investments begin to materialize. America remains on a solid economic trajectory thanks to President Trump’s proven agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, tariffs, and energy dominance. Americans can rest assured that after the short-term disruptions of Operation Epic Fury are behind us, America’s economic resurgence is set to only accelerate.”
January’s jobs report smashed expectations and signals a turning point in the labor market where job creation catches up with broader economic conditions. The report shows 130,000 jobs created, the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%, and labor force participation rising.
Economic growth last quarter was above 4% and is projected to be 4% again this quarter. The Dow Jones recently reached 50,000, as I predicted last fall. And gas prices and inflation are low.
Now workers are starting to feel the benefit in terms of associated job creation and wage growth. The jobs report shows workers’ real wages continuing to significantly rise, a stark contrast to their declines during the Biden administration.
An added bonus: Parasitical federal government jobs continue to decline, falling 34,000 last month and more than 10% since Donald Trump took office. Government jobs too often padded previous employment reports when the relevant metric should be productive private-sector job creation.
Strong labor-market, economic, and financial-market growth doesn’t happen in a vacuum. It’s the result of good public policy that empowers Main Street over big government.
Exhibit A is last year’s Republican tax cuts. These tax cuts prevented the largest middle-class tax hike in history from occurring. They empowered small businesses by restoring and making permanent 100% immediate expensing and locking in a 20% deduction on earnings. These tax cuts are game changers for job creators, incentivizing them to expand, hire, and raise wages.
Despite delivering one of the most consequential tax cuts in modern American history, however, Republicans are somehow trailing Democrats on the issue of taxes, according to new Fox News polling. Even though every single Democrat voted against them.
This isn’t just backwards. It’s political malpractice fueled by a media ecosystem that has abandoned facts in favor of Democratic talking points. Voters have been told again and again — by headlines, by cable news panels, by progressive activists masquerading as journalists — that Republicans are the party of “tax breaks for billionaires.”
In reality, these are middle-class tax cuts that actually make the tax code more progressive.
A stronger economy, rising 401(k) balances, and higher living standards will help blunt the impact of this misinformation and convert some independents. But small businesses and conservatives have a responsibility to spread the word to right this polling wrong.
Every small business with a tax-savings story needs to speak up in their communities, with their employees, and on their social media, explaining how these tax cuts have helped them survive and thrive. That’s the least they can do in return for these tax savings.
Meanwhile, conservatives need to start singing from the same page on these uniting economic issues. A strong opportunity, affordability, and standard-of-living message, combined with a focus on deporting violent criminals and sanity on culture issues, is the winning approach Republicans need to boost their polling and hold onto Congress this fall.
The first step is connecting the dots between small-business tax cuts, job creation, and affordability.
Alfredo Ortiz is a contributor to The Daily Caller News Foundation, CEO of Job Creators Network, author of “The Real Race Revolutionaries,” and co-host of the Main Street Matters podcast.
The latest job report from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) shows that 34% of small business owners (seasonally adjusted) reported that despite having open positions in April, they could not find employees to fill them. Chad Heinrich, state director for NFIB in Arizona, offered some suggestions for Arizona lawmakers to address the situation and urged the passage of AZ Senate Bills 1069 and 1215.
“Arizona’s small businesses are the foundation of our economy, and our state has a chance to lead the way in empowering them,” Heinrich said in a statement. “Lawmakers have already done good work keeping taxes and regulations in check. Now, I urge them to pass Senate Bills 1069 and 1215. These two measures will lift a significant recordkeeping burden from Arizona’s smallest businesses and safeguard legal proceedings from foreign entity involvement.”
Senate Bill 1069 sponsored by AZ Senator JD Mesnard (R-LD13) would, if enacted, increase the Business Personal Property Tax exemption to $500,000 per taxpayer, relieving the tax burden on small business owners and “reduce record-keeping and compliance costs enormously,” according to the NFIB.
The bill was passed by the Senate 17-9 with four Senators not voting and passed the House Ways and Means Committee on March 5th.
The second measure, Senate Bill 1215, proposed by AZ Senate President Pro Tempore Vince Leach would require the disclosure of third-parties sponsoring predatory lawsuits against Arizona small business owners and was passed by the House Judiciary Committee on March 26th and is pending consideration by the House Rules Committee. The bill is also supported by the Arizona Chamber of Commerce & Industry, the Arizona Manufacturers Council, the Arizona Lodging & Tourism Association, and the Arizona Trucking Association.
Courtney Coolidge, executive vice president of the Arizona Chamber of Commerce & Industry said in a February statement, “Third party litigation funding has grown to an estimated $15 billion industry in the U.S. Essentially what happened is funders pour money into lawsuits in exchange for the settlement. This is a simple transparency bill to ensure transparency in our courts, protect litigants and safeguard against foreign influence. This is not just an Arizona issue; several states have passed this with bipartisan support.”
Good news! SB 1215 cleared its Senate committee today—a big step for litigation transparency in AZ. This bill reins in secretive lawsuit funding schemes that drive up costs and ensures our courts aren’t manipulated by hidden investors. A win for consumers, businesses, and… pic.twitter.com/36cfYXjDS5
Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg explained the NFIB report’s findings saying, “Small business owners remained open to hire and grow their workforce in April. While the percent of open positions decreased a bit, Main Street firms are still struggling to find qualified applicants for their plentiful open positions.” Per the NFIB report, the percentage of unfilled job openings spiked in 2021-22 and have returned to the lowest level observed since January 2021.
Per the NFIB report, the percentage of unfilled job openings spiked in 2021-22 and have returned to the lowest level observed since January 2021 with the largest concentration of openings in construction, transportation, and manufacturing.
We all know that math scores have been scandalously trending downward for many years, but the folks in the government should at least be able to count.
We’re finding more and more evidence that the statistics the government is releasing to the public are increasingly suspect and unreliable. It seems like the errors are not random but perhaps manipulated for political advantage. Judge for yourself.
Let’s start with crime statistics. Former President Donald Trump said in the debate that crime is out of control, and Vice President Kamala Harris countered by citing government statistics from the FBI indicating that crime rates are falling.
But Jeffrey Anderson, former director of the Bureau of Justice Statistics, finds a surge in urban violent crime since 2019. He writes in The Wall Street Journal that “the violent crime rate in 2023 was 19% higher than in 2019.” The urban violent crime rate was up 40%, and urban property crime rate rose 26%.
How can the Left keep saying crime is down? A big reason is the FBI figures are only measuring “crimes reported to the police.” More than half of violent crimes are not reported, thanks to what Anderson calls a new era of “lax law enforcement policies” in urban areas. Police in big cities also have an incentive to undercount crimes to make their performance look better.
Next, we have jobs data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics admitted last month that it has overstated job growth by more than 800,000 positions. And in just the last year the government has also overstated job growth by almost 500,000 from the original monthly headline numbers. This is an overcount of over 1 million. In 10 of the last 13 months, the errors were in the direction of announcing too many jobs.
So President Joe Biden gets the gangbuster headlines, and the whoopsie daisy comes later when no one is paying attention.
Those aren’t just random errors. Was the Biden Labor Department finagling the data? Maybe.
Then there was the decennial Census Bureau population count. The numbers from the 2020 census were wildly wrong, as the bureau admits.
In an analysis issued in 2021 called the “Post-Enumeration Survey Estimation Report,” the Census Bureau reported which states recorded overcounts of their population, and which saw undercounts. Florida, Texas, Tennessee and other red states were undercounted by some 1.5 million residents. The overcounting was in mostly blue states like New York and Minnesota. Again, was this just an accident?
The miscount may have cost Republicans three electoral seats. This means the presidential election and control of the House of Representatives may be decided because of an error in counting heads.
These government agencies are supposed to be politically independent, and historically, they have been filled with professionals devoid of bias. But when we see the errors all bending the data in the direction of benefiting one party, one has to wonder if this is deliberate misrepresentation.
I hope I’m wrong and that these are innocent errors. But we live in an era where everything in Washington is hyper-politicized. Elections have become a blood sport. The saying is that “all is fair in love and war.” And now add politics to that.
Stephen Moore is a contributor to The Daily Caller News Foundation, visiting fellow at the Heritage Foundation, and a co-founder of the Committee to Unleash Prosperity.He is also an economic advisor to the Trump campaign. His new book, “The Trump Economic Miracle,” coauthored with Arthur Laffer, will be released later this month.
