Guess what! Inflation, growth, jobs: Conventional wisdom from America’s economic punditry was across-the-board wrong. Again.
At the year’s start the punditry predicted that Trump’s tariffs would cause a surge of inflation and would likely trigger recession. Well, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers on Thursday. Reuters’ polling of private economists predicted inflation would accelerate to 3.1% year-over-year, the fastest pace since 2023. The actual BLS figure came in at 2.7%, with core inflation even lower at 2.6%.
But the news gets better. Year-over-year inflation means it includes inflationary pressures from the end of Biden’s presidency. It’s a very lagging figure.
To understand what inflation’s doing now, and to filter out some of the data’s noise, a better gauge is to look at inflation over the last two months, which came in at 1.2% annualized, well below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
There is a small caveat to this good news. Due to the Schumer government shutdown, BLS was unable to collect all the usual data for the CPI report, so some items were left out. The economists who predicted accelerating inflation are thus arguing that inflation would, with all the data, have been much higher and thus excusing their bad forecasts.
However, as New York Fed President John Williams points out, the missing data “pushed down the CPI reading, probably by a tenth or so.” OK, so topline inflation was 2.8% while the annualized two-month figure goes to 1.8%, still well below consensus forecast and still below the Fed’s target rate.
What about Trump’s tariffs? To be sure, they pushed some prices up faster than they otherwise would have. But the tariffs only applied to a small fraction of all the goods and services sold in America. So, when it comes to overall inflation, the net effect could never be more than a one-time rounding error.
Further, inflation is fundamentally a monetary phenomenon. These tariff-induced price bumps occurred against a background of the underlying inflationary impulse from money supply interacting with money demand. The Fed has run a moderately restrictive policy for years, so naturally inflation is falling.
Assuming at least one of the Fed’s legion of economists can do this two-month calculation and has the temerity to show it to Chair Powell and the rest of the Fed’s leadership, then further Fed rate cuts should be assured and imminent on the road to neutral.
And what about that predicted recession? After inflation, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) soared 3.8% in the second quarter of this year, while the Atlanta Fed’s “Nowcast” of third quarter GDP is a still-impressive 3.5%.
Some of Reuters’ economists will likely portray this slight slowdown in growth as “scary” and a sign of pending recession. Nonsense. The economy is ripping, with the only recession pending threatening the salaries of those economists making silly forecasts.
Finally, those still desperate to argue economic weakness might turn to the labor market. The economy generated about 166,000 jobs a month during Biden’s last year in office. So far under Trump the economy has generated about 50,000 jobs a month. Sounds scary, but much of that decline occurred because federal employment fell by 27,000 jobs a month.
The even bigger jobs story is that employment by foreign-born workers has fallen by about 100,000 a month under Trump. This is what happens when immigration laws are enforced and the border is secured. Put it all together and private-sector native-born employment is doing very well.
And the cherry on top is that after stagnating for the four years of the Biden presidency, median real wages are now rising at a 1.6% annualized rate. Rising wages and plentiful private-sector jobs, not gimmicks like Obamacare subsidies and rent controls, are how you prosper American workers or, in today’s parlance, address “affordability.”
Just don’t be surprised if you don’t hear that from the legacy media.
J.D. Foster is a contributor to the Daily Caller News Foundation. He is the former chief economist at the Office of Management and Budget and former chief economist and senior vice president at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. He now resides in relative freedom in the hills of Idaho.
Federal bureaucrats don’t get a lot of love, but there is at least one — or perhaps a small group — at the FBI who deserve your thanks. Why? Did you see the story about the FBI revising its crime data?
The FBI’s original release of 2022 crime statistics showed a 2.1% decline in violent crime when compared to 2021. This figure never seemed right and was widely questioned, but FBI data is presumed authoritative. Former President Donald Trump often insists crime is rising and the legacy media delighted in throwing the FBI figures back at him.
Whoops. The FBI very quietly released a correction. Crime didn’t fall 2.1%. Violent crime actually rose 4.5%. That’s right, crime rose, just as Trump said. Further, the combined correction of nearly 7%, reversing a 2.1% decline to a 4.5% increase is too large just to be passed off as simple error. “Something is rotten in the state of Denmark (Hamlet, Act I, Scene IV).”
Quite properly, most of the attention given to this bombshell is directed at the rise in crime, the validation of Trump’s claims and the perfidy of the FBI.
Consider that last item. The FBI is vital to national security, yet its leadership down through a few layers of the org chart have been revealed repeatedly as bad. They see what’s going on around the country. They see the crime, yet they allowed that obviously flawed report to go out knowing it would benefit whoever became the Democratic nominee.
If Trump wins, then it is time for the trash to meet the broom.
But there’s another aspect of this story. The corrected figures showing a rise in crime came out just a few weeks before the election, hitting the Harris campaign with yet another mighty gut punch. The FBI could have waited until after the election. Heck, they could have waited until next year.
How did this happen? How did the new truth get past FBI leadership?
Somewhere some likely lifer FBI bureaucrat must have learned the truth. Knowing it would surely destroy their career this person may have told their superiors that if the report weren’t revised and released, if the truth didn’t come out through official channels, then they would go to the press with the correct data and the coverup.
Our hero was likely called to multiple meetings by ever-higher-ups to persuade, dissuade and threaten him or her into getting in line. They would have heard variations of “This isn’t how we do things at the FBI” and “This will destroy your career,” and “By the way, how do your kids like Springfield Elementary?”
Plenty of federal bureaucrats are lazy and useless. Sometimes they are in positions where there is just nothing to do and sometimes they are malicious.
It is a big government. There are bad apples in every barrel. As my former boss used to say: “Bureaucrats are like cockroaches. The trouble is not what they eat, but what they get into.”
But there are also plenty of fine professionals just trying to do a good job often in impossible conditions. They can be found in every department, agency and bureau. I’ve even met them at the Internal Revenue Service, good people struggling to make an incredibly bad system work.
One of those fine professionals is apparently at the FBI. A dedicated stalwart who wouldn’t be bullied, wouldn’t remain silent, who forced the FBI to release the corrected crime statistics before the election. We will likely never know who this person is.
But tonight, when hefting a pint or saying your prayers, speak a few words of thanks that we have such people.
J.D. Foster is a contributor to the Daily Caller News Foundation. He is the former chief economist at the Office of Management and Budget and former chief economist and senior vice president at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. He now resides in relative freedom in the hills of Idaho.
The latest read on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 5.2% real growth suggests the US economy soared in the third quarter. As momentum matters, this suggests the next quarter and the next will also be strong. One can hope, but a great downshift is far more likely.
For starters, it’s likely the economy was nowhere near as strong as the headline suggests. GDP gets all the love in the press, but Gross Domestic Income (GDI) is an equally valid measure. If we could measure these things precisely, they would always equate. GDI came in at 1.5%, much lower than GDP’s 5.2%.
Much the same data conflict arises in the jobs figures. According to the press fave employers’ survey, the economy created about 200 thousand jobs monthly since May. But the equally valid household survey has been flat over the same period. Again, that’s a big difference over an extended period between equally valid measures of the labor market.
One measure strong; one weak. Secret sauce clue: When major economic indicators send very different signals, it usually means the economy is at a turning point.
Why now? First, because the American consumer, that great engine representing about two-thirds of GDP, is running low on gas. The hoard of excess saving built up in years past is now mostly gone. LendingClub reports 60% of Americans are living paycheck-to-paycheck, which means they’ve little to fall back on and little room for error or bad luck.
The New York Fed confirms the consumer’s stretched thin, reporting that credit card debt last year displayed “the largest such increase since the beginning of our time series in 1999.” Credit card balances shoot up when savings go down and the checking account’s running dry. The Fed also reports the share of newly delinquent credit card users is the highest in about a decade and on an upward trend.
Going into the pandemic the Fed threw the sink at sustaining the economy, one consequence of which was high inflation. Coming out of the pandemic, the Fed finally woke up to inflation’s gathering momentum. The consequent good news is that inflation is trending downward.
The problem for the American consumer is the damage that inflation has already done. When inflation shot up in 2021 and 2022, nominal wages didn’t. Families took a huge hit in what they could afford and the gap remains. To preserve their standard of living, they resorted to spending down their past savings and spending up their credit card balances.
The natural consequence of stressed consumers is a downshift in spending. The National Retail Federation reports that core retail sales have been essentially flat for two months straight. Retailers report consumers are resisting price increases, hesitating to pay full price, and are increasingly looking for discounts and promotions. The obvious reaction to financial insecurity is to cut back; think cutting out the Rib-Eye at Whole Foods for hamburger from Aldi.
A weakening of consumer spending would occur against a shaky background elsewhere. Housing has been flat or down for two years now. Shipments and new orders both suggest the manufacturing sector is weak. If the consumer really is about out of gas, then the economy could see a marked downshift. And now we come full circle back to the Fed, which put us on this rollercoaster with its kitchen sink response to the pandemic.
The Fed is standing pat with its restrictive policies even as inflation slows and will likely do so for many months. Quite reasonably, before relaxing the Fed wants to be sure inflation continues toward its 2% goal rather than re-igniting. But standing pat while inflation slows means Fed policy is actually becoming steadily more restrictive. Today’s tapping becomes tomorrow’s stomping on the brakes, and thus is likely to generate the great 2024 downshift.
J.D. Foster is a contributor to the Daily Caller News Foundation. He is the former chief economist at the Office of Management and Budget and former chief economist and senior vice president at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. He now resides in relative freedom in the hills of Idaho.
