ALFREDO ORTIZ: America’s Labor Market Turning A Corner Led By Main Street And GOP Policies

ALFREDO ORTIZ: America’s Labor Market Turning A Corner Led By Main Street And GOP Policies

By Alfredo Ortiz |

Friday’s jobs report shows the American labor market is turning a corner. The unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, and average wages grew 40% faster than inflation. Rising real wages are a stark contrast to the Biden administration, where 25% inflation caused an affordability crisis that President Donald Trump and Republicans are digging us out from.

The report also showed that unproductive government jobs have fallen by nearly 300,000 over the past year, reducing a significant drag on the real economy. The number of discouraged workers declined by almost 200,000 last month, and the number of Americans quitting their jobs increased significantly, indicating that workers are increasingly confident they can find a job.

Topline job creation remains mediocre, but hires are a lagging economic indicator. In fact, the labor market is far stronger than this headline number suggests.

Recent economic growth smashed expectations, with GDP rising by more than 4% in the most recent quarter. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model suggests growth will continue above 4%, representing a historic rise in living standards. Holiday spending also exceeded expectations, with Visa and Mastercard announcing growth of more than 4%, revealing a healthy American consumer.

Small businesses, America’s job creation engine, will respond to the strong economy and consumers by expanding and hiring, setting the stage for strong job gains in the months ahead.

According to a new Citizens Bank survey of small businesses, two-thirds of small businesses expect their revenues to increase in the first quarter of this year. And a new JPMorgan Chase survey finds that three-quarters of small businesses anticipate revenue growth.

Fast economic growth and increasing Main Street revenues don’t happen in a vacuum, as many left-wing pundits would have you believe. They are the direct result of good public policy that empowers businessmen, not bureaucrats.

Exhibit A is Republicans’ Big Beautiful Bill, signed into law last July, which cut taxes for entrepreneurs and employees. The bill restored and made permanent 100% immediate expensing for small businesses, encouraging expansion, development, and hiring. It also made permanent the 20% small business tax deduction, allowing more stores to become profitable.

It expanded the standard deduction and child tax deduction and exempted tip and overtime income, giving workers what should be their largest tax refunds in American history this spring. Funds that will help folks overcome Biden’s affordability crisis.

Sadly, every Democrat in Congress voted against these significant middle-class tax cuts and in favor of the biggest tax hike in American history. Republicans need to sell this win to independents and apolitical folks every day from now until the midterms to keep control of Congress.

Mass deportations, the Epstein files, and transgender bathrooms may be the issues that matter most to the MAGA base, but they are not the ones that will get Republicans the 51% coalition needed to win. They will not motivate Martha, three doors down the block, Jorge, in the apartment complex across the street, or David and Michael, the brother duo trying to get their Main Street cafe off the ground.

No matter what the latest America First social media influencer says, preserving and expanding the opportunity economy will always be the winning message the broad conservative coalition needs to overcome the Democrat siren song of “free stuff.”

The Trump administration and Congressional Republicans have notched numerous wins to advance this engine of increased well-being and affordability. Now it’s time to connect the dots for the general public. Big job gains in the months ahead will help drive these victories home.

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Originally published by the Daily Caller News Foundation.

Alfredo Ortiz is a contributor to The Daily Caller News Foundation, CEO of Job Creators Network, author of “The Real Race Revolutionaries,” and co-host of the Main Street Matters podcast.

Here’s Why The Economy Isn’t Out Of The Woods Just Yet

Here’s Why The Economy Isn’t Out Of The Woods Just Yet

By Alfredo Ortiz |

Friday’s jobs report is not the home run that Democrats and the mainstream media claim. In their rush to champion topline job creation, they overlook how the jobs report is actually made up of two surveys. And the other doesn’t look so good, though it’s far more reflective of the economic reality facing ordinary Americans and small businesses.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys business establishments and households each month to generate its report on labor market conditions. The establishment survey of payrolls produces the monthly job creation number the media is quick to champion. Yet even the BLS admits the household survey is “more expansive” because it also measures self-employed workers and those employed privately in households. This survey produces the unemployment rate.

For years, these surveys have tracked each other in terms of employment growth, as you’d expect. However, beginning in mid-2022, they began to diverge, with the payroll survey showing far more job creation than the household survey. Over the last year, the payroll survey finds 2.9 million jobs have been created, while the household survey reveals only 1.1 million new jobs.

In stark contrast to the 353,000 jobs created in the payroll survey, the household survey shows employment actually declined by 31,000 last month. Full-time jobs declined by 63,000. That’s a far cry from today’s headlines about a booming economy.

These household survey numbers are in line with other anecdotal and empirical data. On Thursday, the job placement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas reported a historic 82,300 layoffs in January. This week, UPS announced 12,000 layoffs. Major companies such as Zerox, Spotify, and Hasbro have recently laid off at least 15% of their workforce. There’s also a jobs bloodbath currently occurring in the media sector.

On Wednesday, ADP reported that only 107,000 private-sector jobs were created in January.

There are other technical problems with the jobs report. Seasonal adjustments and annual revisions to population estimates have made January jobs reports notoriously untrustworthy. I can’t understand why we need opaque “seasonal adjustments” to the job numbers at all. Americans are smart enough to understand that job creation will be higher in some months and lower in others for seasonal reasons. We don’t need green eyeshades smoothing them for us.

Bipartisan tax cut legislation passed this week in the House of Representatives can turbocharge job creation in both surveys in the months ahead. The legislation, brokered by House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO), extends key tax cuts passed as part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017, making it easier for small businesses to invest, expand, and hire.

This legislation is overwhelmingly supported by Main Street, with small businesses calling the immediate expensing provision “a game-changer.” The Senate should quickly pass this legislation and send it to President Biden’s desk to be signed into law.

In the meantime, let’s see if the payroll and household surveys continue to diverge in the jobs reports ahead. If they do, it will be more confirmation that the economy is not out of the woods yet.

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Originally published by the Daily Caller News Foundation.

Alfredo Ortiz is a contributor to The Daily Caller News Foundation, president and CEO of Job Creators Network, author of “The Real Race Revolutionaries,” and co-host of the Main Street Matters podcast.