By Matthew Holloway |
A new poll of Arizona’s Second Congressional District shows Republican Rep. Eli Crane leading Democratic challenger Jonathan Nez by 11 points in their rematch for the northeastern Arizona seat.
The Peak Insights survey, conducted August 17-20, found Crane supported by 53% of respondents and Nez by 42%, with 5% selecting neither candidate or saying they did not know.
The poll places Crane above 50% in the initial ballot test with just over two months remaining before the general election.
Peak Insights conducted 400 live telephone interviews with a representative sample of 2026 general election voters in the district using landlines and cell phones. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
The memo does not identify who commissioned or paid for the survey.
The poll’s ballot test listed Crane, Nez, and “Neither/don’t know.” It did not include Libertarian Curtis Goodwin, who advanced from the July 21 Libertarian primary and is also a candidate in the general election.
The Peak Insights memo also reported a positive job-approval rating for Crane. 41% of respondents approved of his performance in Congress, while 25% disapproved.
President Donald Trump was viewed favorably by 51% of respondents and unfavorably by 45%, according to the survey. Among voters who viewed Trump favorably, Crane led Nez 95% to 2%.
Peak Insights also examined the remaining undecided voters and reported that a majority are registered Republicans who supported Trump over former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.
The pollster characterized that group as favoring Crane based on its partisan composition and previous voting behavior.
Nez drew 42% in the ballot test, which Peak Insights noted matched Harris’ 2024 share of the presidential vote in the district. The memo reported that Nez received support from 2% of respondents who said they voted for Trump in 2024.
The candidates are meeting for a second consecutive general election after Crane defeated Nez in 2024. Alongside the release of his latest ad in early August, Crane said, “The same D.C. Democrats who look down on rural Arizonans because we don’t share their woke values want to pretend like they all of the sudden care about AZ-02. What they really care about is power.”
Crane won the 2024 contest with 54.5% of the vote to Nez’s 45.5%, a nine-point margin. The Cook Political Report notes that Nez ran ahead of Harris in the district, which Trump carried by approximately 15 points.
Cook currently rates the 2026 race “Likely Republican” and gives Arizona’s Second Congressional District a Republican-leaning R+7 Partisan Voting Index.
Crane, a former Navy SEAL first elected to Congress in 2022, is seeking a third term. Nez served as president of the Navajo Nation from 2019 to 2023.
Both advanced through the July 21 primary. The official state canvass recorded 89,205 votes for Crane in the Republican primary and 65,118 for Nez in the Democratic primary, with neither facing a listed opponent in his respective party contest.
The race has also drawn substantial campaign spending. Federal Election Commission (FEC) records through July 1 show Crane’s campaign with approximately $2.84 million in cash on hand, while Nez reported approximately $1.91 million.
Crane’s campaign had raised approximately $9.48 million during the 2025-26 election cycle through July 1, compared with approximately $3.52 million raised by Nez’s campaign, according to the FEC.
The Second Congressional District covers a large portion of northern and eastern Arizona, including Flagstaff, Prescott, and much of the Navajo Nation.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
