By Ethan Faverino |

The Common Sense Institute (CSI) released the first report in its 2026 Ballot Guide series, examining the fiscal, educational, and family impacts of the proposed “Protect Education Act.” The analysis concludes that the measure would immediately disqualify approximately 20,300 current universal ESA families through a new income cap, while gradually excluding more than half of Arizona families with school-aged children over time as incomes rise faster than the cap’s limited adjustment.

The proposal would also impose new accreditations, testing, and spending restrictions on participating schools, potentially disrupting educational choices for over 100,000 Arizona students currently using Empowerment Scholarship Accounts (ESAs).

Arizona’s K-12 landscape has been shifting for more than a decade, with district enrollment declining since 2008 as families increasingly turned to charter, private, homeschool, and micro school options. District schools lost roughly 50,000 students in 2021-2022 alone—before universal ESA eligibility—and today enroll about 75,000 fewer students than in 2019-2020.

Fewer than 70% of Arizona’s school-aged children now attend district schools, down from 80% a decade ago.

In response to these trends and parent demand for alternatives, lawmakers expanded ESA eligibility in 2022 to all school-aged children, removing prior public-school attendance requirements. Participation surged to more than 100,000 students (nearly 10% of Arizona’s K-12 population), with annual awards totaling around $1.1 billion. One quarter of participants remain in pre-universal categories, including a rapidly growing share of students with disabilities.

Key Impacts of the Proposed Act

The Protect Education Act would limit universal ESA scholarships to households earning under $150,000 annually, require participating private schools to register, accredit, and/or conduct mandatory state testing, and further restrict allowable uses of funds by tightening definitions of “noneducational” and “luxury” items.

CSI’s analysis estimates that 24% of current ESA users have household incomes above the proposed threshold, immediately affecting roughly 20,300 universal-eligibility families.

Statewide, approximately 400,000 school-aged children—potentially up to 40% when accounting for family sizes—could be permanently excluded from universal ESAs based on 2024 income distributions.

Although the cap includes a 2% annual inflation adjustment. Arizona household incomes have historically risen closer to 4% per year, leading CSI to project that more than 52% of families with school-aged children could be income-excluded by 2045.

The restriction could also indirectly reduce participation in other eligibility categories. Growth in ESA usage among students with disabilities accelerated after universal expansion; without it, there might have been roughly 10,000 fewer participants in those targeted groups.

“Arizona’s K-12 system has been evolving for more than a decade as enrollment patterns, family preferences, and educational models continue to diversify,” stated Director of Policy & Research at CSI, Glenn Farley. “This analysis finds the proposed Act would not simply adjust ESA eligibility requirements, but could significantly reshape access to nontraditional education options over time. More families are signaling that one size does not fit all and are seeking educational choices that better meet their children’s needs.”

Fiscal Analysis: ESA Delivers Savings

ESA students receive significantly less funding than their public-school peers. The average universal ESA award is approximately $7,700 per student, compared to nearly $15,000 per public-school student. CSI estimates that shifting 20,000 universal ESA students back into district classrooms would increase annual taxpayers costs by about $115 million.

Despite serving over 100,000 students, the total number of publicly funded K-12 students (district, charter, and ESA) remains consistent with pre-2020 projections. The funding mix has simply shifted to better align with actual enrollment and family preferences, producing net savings for taxpayers. Arizona is also spending 30% more per-public school pupil (inflation-adjusted) than a decade ago, yet the share of funding reaching classrooms has declined slightly while support services have grown.

Academic Performance and Oversight

According to CSI, Arizona district students score low on state assessments with only 39% proficient in reading, 32% in math, and 27% in science. Available data indicate stronger outcomes in private and homeschool settings.

ACT scores show private school students outperforming public school counterparts by 19% and homeschool students by 12%. National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) results similarly suggest private school students outperform roughly 70% of their public peers where comparable data exist.

CSI’s survey of participating private schools revealed that 84% already administer standardized testing and about two-thirds hold accreditation from recognized bodies. All respondents imply background checks and staff qualification standards. Private school leaders warned that the Act’s new requirements would create administrative burdens, with three-quarters indicating possible tuition increases and one in five suggesting they might stop accepting ESA students—potentially displacing over 4,600 reported ESA users. 

Oversight mechanisms already exist in the ESA program. Arizona Department of Education audits found only 1.9% of sampled spending “unallowable” and 0.3% “egregious”—rates lower than many other public programs.

“Arizona was one of the first states to broadly expand Empowerment Scholarship Accounts, and a growing number of states have since adopted similar programs as demand for educational flexibility has increased,” added Farley. “If approved by Arizona voters, the proposal could significantly narrow access to options many Arizona families have increasingly turned to as part of the state’s changing education landscape.”

Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.