By Staff Reporter |

Arizona cities reported increased murder rates that outpaced declines, per preliminary crime statistics. 

The following cities reported murder rate increases per the Real-Time Crime Index, whose data goes through October: Gilbert (600 percent), Scottsdale (400 percent), Yuma (300 percent), Peoria (300 percent), Chandler (100 percent), Mesa (33 percent), and Tempe (25 percent). 

The Real-Time Crime Index, which collects crime data from over 500 law enforcement agencies across the nation, comes from AH Datalytics.

Other cities reported decreases in murders: Buckeye (100 percent), Casa Grande (100 percent), Flagstaff (100 percent), Marana (100 percent), Prescott Valley (100 percent), Avondale (66 percent), Peoria (55 percent), Glendale (43 percent), Phoenix (24 percent), and Tucson (22 percent). 

Pima, Pinal, and Yavapai Counties all reported decreases in crime (55, 100, and 100 percent, respectively). 

This occurred despite the predictions of 2025 crime to have dropped to the lowest levels since 1960. The cause behind the disparity remains unknown. One theory speculates underreporting by major cities; another speculates actions by the current administration to address rising crime.

AH Datalytics’ cofounder, Jeff Asher, said in an interview with ABC News that even conservative estimates of the preliminary data reflect the largest one-year drop in crime statistic recordkeeping dating back to 1960. Prior to cofounding the company, Asher was a crime analyst for the CIA. 

Asher clarified that a major influence on the significant crime drop manifested in major cities notorious for their high levels of violent crime. Some of these cities are anticipated to have crime rates better than those seen over 60 years ago — some by over 80 years, said Asher. 

“You’ve got places like Detroit, Philadelphia and Baltimore that are on track to have the fewest murders since the 1960s. New Orleans, in spite of the terrorist attack on January 1, is on pace to have the fewest murders since 1970,” said Asher. “San Francisco is on track to see the fewest number of murders since 1940.”

The preliminary review across the nation reflected a 20 percent decrease in murders, eight percent decrease in aggravated assault, and over 20 percent decrease in car theft. 

The findings confirm early analysis published in July by the Council on Criminal Justice. These analyses are only preliminary estimates — the FBI hasn’t yet released its official annual crime report.

Some have attributed the decline to actions taken by President Donald Trump, but crime rates have been dropping since 2022. 

2024 reflected a 15 percent decline in murders; 2023 reflected a 13 percent decrease; and 2022 reflected a six percent decrease.

It wasn’t until this past June that Trump began deploying National Guard troops and other federal forces into major cities. Trump first directed troops to Los Angeles, California, followed by Washington, D.C. in August, then Memphis, Tennessee in October. 

Those sorts of actions have come to an end, for now. Trump responded this week to a Supreme Court ruling from last week with an announcement that he would no longer deploy the National Guard to major cities. Specifically, he ordered troops pulled back from Chicago, Illinois; Los Angeles, California; and Portland, Oregon. 

The president also had his eye on New York, San Francisco and Oakland in California, and Baltimore, Maryland.

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