By Matthew Holloway |
Congressman Andy Biggs continues to hold a dominant polling position in Arizona’s 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, maintaining the same lead he’s had since September when he also polled ahead of Karrin Taylor Robson by 24 points.
The latest poll, conducted October 26–28 among 397 likely GOP primary voters, shows Biggs at 43 percent with Karrin Taylor Robson at 19 percent and David Schweikert at 2 percent. Another 35 percent remain undecided. The mixed-mode survey, which carries a ±4.9 percent margin of error, was conducted by the Phoenix-based research firm GrayHouse Research & Analysis.
Biggs, a five-term congressman representing Arizona’s 5th District and former chair of the House Freedom Caucus, has led every early-cycle measure of the prospective Republican field. His advantage reflects both high name recognition and continued grassroots strength among conservative voters focused on border security, spending restraint, and state sovereignty.
The poll underscores a steady pattern: Biggs’ lead hasn’t wavered despite increased visibility from Robson, who finished second in the 2022 gubernatorial primary, or speculation that Schweikert could consolidate the party’s establishment wing. With one-third of the electorate still uncommitted, the numbers suggest Biggs enters 2026 as the de facto frontrunner. As reported by AZ Free News, Biggs polled at 55% against Robson’s 31%, with 14% of voters undecided in a September poll from Pulse Decision Science. He also polled at 48.6% against Robson’s 26% in a June poll by NextGen Polling, barely edging out “Other” and “Undecided” with a combined 25.5%.
Turning Point USA Chief Operating Officer Tyler Bowyer shared the results in a post to X, remarking “Latest Arizona Poll out on @politico’s website shows @andybiggs4az up 24 points on Karrin Robson. This is consistent with every poll to date. Republicans need to get behind Biggs for Governor and prepare the resources now to win next year.”
In a similar sentiment, Richard Baris of Big Data Poll, Chairman of the National Association of Independent Pollsters and host of ‘Inside the Numbers’ commented, “Yep, Biggs has a significant lead. It’s not particularly close. Would be a waste of money to even challenge him. But nobody ever accused GOP donors of being smart, so…”
GrayHouse’s data, drawn from its statewide voter panel and Arizona voter file, also provided a detailed look at the primary electorate.
In the attorney general primary, Senate President Warren Petersen started at 16% and former Tucson City Council member Rodney Glassman at 8%, with 76% undecided. After biographical information, Petersen rose to 48% and Glassman to 15%, with 37% undecided.
The poll also measured voter sentiment on state direction: 52% said Arizona is on the wrong track, 25% on the right track, and 22% did not know. For re-electing Gov. Katie Hobbs, 43% supported it, 48% preferred someone new, and 9% were undecided. Including Independents and Democrats, the poll surveyed 744 registered voters with a margin of error +/- 3.6%.
Arizona’s top issues ranked were affordability and cost of living at 29%, threats to democracy at 17%, and border security and immigration at 16%, followed by jobs and the economy at 9%, education and healthcare both at 7%, with crime/public safety and water both at 6%. Climate change and the environment came in at 3%, and abortion barely registered at 1%.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
