By Ethan Faverino |
Holiday retail sales in the United States are projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time in 2026, according to a new forecast from the National Retail Federation (NRF). The milestone comes despite persistent inflation, rising gas prices, and pressure on household budgets.
The NRF projects that retail sales during November and December will increase 4.2% over 2025, reaching approximately $1.013 trillion. The forecast represents an increase of roughly $41 billion from last year’s holiday sales of $972.3 billion, which grew 3.1% over 2024.
The projected growth comes as retailers prepare for the holiday shopping season amid ongoing economic uncertainty, with consumers continuing to prioritize holiday purchases while remaining cautious about their household budgets.
“This year’s forecast reflects our confidence that consumers will prioritize the holiday season even as they remain mindful of their budgets,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Retailers are prepared to meet that demand with competitive prices, value and choices for every budget.”
According to the NRF’s historical data, holiday retail sales have increased substantially over the past decade, rising from approximately $629.4 billion in 2016 to the projected $1.013 trillion in 2026.
The forecast also follows several years of continued holiday spending growth, including an 8.8% increase in 2020 and a 12.6% increase in 2021, followed by more moderate increases in subsequent years.
NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews said consumer spending remains a key driver of economic activity, although financial pressures could affect households differently depending on their income levels.
“We head into the holiday season with strong spending momentum, as consumers remain the bright spot in the economy,” Mathews said. “At the same time, inflation, rising gas prices and pressure on household spending will affect consumers differently across income groups.”
In addition to increased retail spending, the NRF expects retailers nationwide to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal employees to accommodate holiday demand.
The projected hiring range is consistent with the estimated 356,000 seasonal retail jobs during the 2025 holiday season.
However, the organization noted that retailers are approaching seasonal hiring cautiously as higher interest rates, persistent inflation, elevated consumer debt, and rising fuel costs continue to influence business decisions and household finances.
The NRF’s holiday forecast is developed using economic modeling that considers consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation, and previous monthly retail sales data.
The organization defines the holiday shopping season as November 1 through December 31 and excludes car dealerships, gas stations, and restaurants from its retail sales calculations.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
