By Matthew Holloway |
Democratic Attorney General Kris Mayes and Republican challenger Warren Petersen each received 45% support among likely voters in a newly released Equis Research survey, while Gov. Katie Hobbs led Republican Andy Biggs, 49% to 43%.
The Oct. 6 memo also showed Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes at 46% against Republican Alex Kolodin’s 44%. The generic congressional ballot stood at 45% for each party.
The survey interviewed 1,214 registered Arizona voters Sept. 1–9, including 400 Latino registered voters, using equal shares of live telephone interviews and text-to-web responses. Equis reported a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points for the full sample and 4.9 points for Latino registered voters. The candidate results were reported for likely voters; the memo did not separately identify that subgroup’s sample size or margin of error.
Equis describes its work as researching Latino voters and increasing civic participation. The organization also identifies itself as a resource for the progressive political ecosystem.
The findings differ from earlier Arizona surveys that showed larger Democratic advantages in the attorney general and secretary of state contests.
An August poll from Noble Predictive Insights placed Mayes ahead of Petersen, 44% to 38%, with 16% undecided. Fontes led Kolodin, 41% to 35%, with 20% undecided.
That survey also showed Republican Kimberly Yee at 40% against Democrat Teresa Leyba Ruiz’s 37% in the superintendent of public instruction race, with another 20% undecided.
Noble conducted its survey Aug. 10–13 through an opt-in online panel of 1,040 registered voters, including 923 classified as likely voters through screening questions. The firm reported a margin of error of approximately 3.2 percentage points for its likely-voter results and weighted that group to its projected electorate.
A separate HighGround survey conducted Aug. 15–18 showed Mayes ahead of Petersen, 48.3% to 40.3%, and Fontes ahead of Kolodin, 43% to 35.3%.
HighGround also found Democrat Nick Mansour at 41.8% against Republican Elijah Norton’s 39% for state treasurer. Leyba Ruiz received 42.3% against Yee’s 41.2% for superintendent.
HighGround sponsored its survey of 400 likely voters, using live interviews and a turnout model with an eight-percentage-point Republican partisan advantage. It reported a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.
The surveys used different respondents, interview methods, and turnout assumptions. Their results alone do not establish how much individual voters’ preferences changed between August and September.
Recent national coverage has also highlighted past differences between polling and election results. During a Sept. 30 CNN segment, chief data analyst Harry Enten said Republicans outperformed September polling in major 2024 races by nine percentage points in Iowa, six in Ohio and five in Michigan.
Enten also cited the 2018 midterms, when Republicans outperformed September polls in major statewide races by six points in Iowa, six in Ohio, and eight in Michigan. He cautioned that another Republican overperformance could alter the outlook for Senate control. Enten’s comparison concerned Iowa, Ohio, and Michigan and did not assess Arizona results.
Beyond candidate preferences, the Equis memo identified the economy and cost of living as the leading concern for 33% of likely voters, followed by water at 23%.
Although released in October, the survey’s voter-preference findings reflect interviews completed Sept. 9 and do not measure reactions to subsequent campaign developments.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
