By Matthew Holloway |
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has made it clear that it is targeting the congressional districts of Congressmen David Schweikert (AZ-01), Eli Crane (AZ-02), and Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06) in 2026.
On Wednesday the Arizona Democratic Party said it is “focused on winning these critical seats, paving the way for a Democratic House majority in 2026.” The release referred to the three Republican Congressmen as “vulnerable,” and their districts as “competitive.”
Arizona Democratic Party Chairman Robert E. Branscomb, II claimed, “Arizonans are tired of David Schweikert, Eli Crane, Juan Ciscomani and other MAGA-cronies playing politics with the issues that impact their ability to make ends meet. As a Party, we will stop at nothing to hold them accountable and to finally elect leaders who will move Arizona forward.” However, the state of play in each district doesn’t seem to be that simple.
Schweikert and Ciscomani both won their 2024 elections with 2-3% margins with Schweikert serving as Ciscomani’s CD6 predecessor before moving to CD1 with redistricting. Each of these constituencies are competitive by their nature and by design, according to the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission (AIRC). The 2021 commission held District 1 competitiveness at a 2.6% vote spread and District 6 at a 2.4% spread, both of which proved accurate in the 2024 race.
Historically, the area that is now District 6 has seen six Republican victories and only three for the Democrats in the in the past nine statewide elections, making District 1 truly the most “competitive” with a more even split of 5 GOP victories to 4 losses per the AIRC.
The same day the Arizona Democratic Party issued their press release, both Reps. Ciscomani and Crane held telephone town hall meetings with their constituents.
The DCCC’s calculus seems to fall short with Rep. Eli Crane’s District 2 seat though, which has seen historically zero Democrat wins in the last nine races and was designed to hold a 7.2% vote spread competitively. That spread Crane decisively beat in his 9-point victory over Democrat Jonathan Nez last year.
As AZ Free News reported in February when a Democrat SuperPAC bankrolled by leftist billionaires announced they would target his seat, Crane’s response was blunt. He wrote in a post to X, “The great thing about #AZ02 is they see through phony attacks by coastal elites. Bring it.”
Given the historic makeup of these districts: two of them designed to give Democrats a chance and a third that appears nearly unassailable, the AZDems assessment of the three Congressmen as “vulnerable,” and their districts as “more “competitive than normal” seems questionable at best.
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
