By Staff Reporter |
An exclusive poll for AZ Free News conducted by Data Orbital shows that among likely voters in the November 2024 General Election, President Donald Trump holds a narrow edge on Vice President and Democrat-appointed nominee Kamala Harris. Taken between 9/7/2024 – 9/9/2024, the poll shows Trump leading by a margin of 0.2% with 46.2% of those polled against Harris’ 46%, with a 4.26% margin of error.
Remarkably, the poll shows approximately 7.7% of Arizona voters remain undecided or refused to answer and are theoretically up for grabs in the highly competitive swing-state race.
Speaking with AZ Free News, George Khalaf, President of Data Orbital, explained, “Independent voters are always going to be very close, so they were. It was still neck and neck depending on the survey. The results sort of oscillate in terms of who’s in the lead.”
“That 7.7% undecided number, I would say, is going to be one of two things: 1.) Either individuals that are saying that they are likely to vote but don’t end up voting or 2.) People that really are truly undecided. But I would be shocked if the true undecided number is in the high single digits,” explained Khalaf.
“I would guess that right now, the true percentage of people that are undecided is maybe one or two percent, if that. This is a high-profile race and so most people have made up their minds. But I think a portion of people that are undecided likely will not end up making a decision on November 5th,” Khalaf stated. “And even if they come out and vote, they may just not vote in the presidential election or will write in somebody random.”
When polled on the most important issues facing Arizona, 30.4% of the likely votes said “Economy, Inflation, Cost of living,” 28.7% selected the Border and Immigration, and at a distant third selection, 18.3% said “Abortion/Pro-Choice/Women’s Rights.”
Conversely, Gallup polling from as recently as August found nationally that Immigration dominated as the most important issue at 19% of those polled, followed by the economy overall at 18%, poor government/leadership at 16%, and High Cost of Living/Inflation at 15%. Abortion barely moved the needle at just 4%.
Given that the poll’s results pre-date the Tuesday Sep. 10th Presidential Debate, they do not represent potential changes in perception that followed. However, Rasmussen Reports has offered a more comprehensive dataset with polling through Sep. 12th posted to X on Friday showing Trump ahead by six points, with another six percent undecided.
Pollster Nate Silver has consistently shown Trump to be favored to win the election both before and after the debate with Trump’s electoral college probability, which ignores the popular vote unlike general polling, at 61% based on the outcome of 40,000 election model simulations.
Nate Silver’s latest result is an increase from the 60.6% probability on Sep. 12th and is only a slight dip from the high point on Sep. 8th at 63.8%.
As of this report, Polymarket projection has President Donald Trump favored to win Arizona 61-40% and has Harris leading nationally by just one point. The projection has been fluctuating between the candidates by 1-3 points on a daily basis, with Trump leading by two points as recently as Sep. 11th and tied at 49% on the tenth.
As far as potential shifts in public opinion before the election, Khalaf told AZ Free News, “I don’t think we’re likely to see a large shift. I just think that obviously we all know the limitations of public opinion polling. There is a margin of error. And so I think the race is going to stay consistently in that range, which means that on election day, that’s why people are still saying it’s a toss -up, even though, again, I would say I would give Arizona a lean towards former President Trump, but I don’t expect a big shift. I don’t think that there’s much that could occur.”
Addressing the Sunday attempt on President Donald Trump’s life, he added, “I mean, look, we saw another assassination attempt, or at least that’s what they’re saying right now. They’re investigating an attempted assassination, and even then we’re not even hearing about it nearly as much as the first attempt. And so all that’s to say, there’s just so much information out there. There’s so much information that people are consuming. I’d be shocked if there was a major shift. I think all of the swing states: Arizona is no different.”
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