By Daniel Stefanski |
Another poll shows former President Donald J. Trump with a growing lead in Arizona for the 2024 General Election rematch with President Joseph R. Biden.
Last week, a P2 Insights poll revealed that Trump led Biden by eleven percent (47-36) in a June 2024 survey. The poll was conducted between June 11-20 with likely voters in the all-important swing state.
The firm conducted a similar poll in May, which had Trump leading Biden by only three percent (41-38).
According to the numbers produced by this report, Trump is winning 87% of his 2020 Arizona voters, while only losing one percent of voters who cast their ballots for him in the most recent presidential contest. Meanwhile, Biden is only winning 81% of his 2020 Arizona voters, while losing six percent of his former ballot box supporters to his Republican opponent.
The memo from P2 Insights Partner, Ryan Tyson, states that “around 60% of swing state voters across all states agree that Joe Biden is too old to be an effective president and that he can’t handle four more years in the White House.” Tyson added that “Trump’s greatest advantage in this race remains that he is more trusted to handle the economy than Biden, [and that] positive perception of Trump’s economy outperforms his baseline image by roughly 10 percentage points in every swing state.” In June, Trump leads Biden by 22% (59-37) among Arizona voters who agreed that “the economy was better under Trump than Biden” compared to ten percent in May (52-42).
This new poll on the current state of the 2024 presidential race in Arizona came just before the first debate between Trump and Biden last Thursday night. In his conclusion for his latest polling memo, Tyson opined that “Joe Biden is in desperate need of a moment in Thursday night’s debate to turn his campaign around.” With Biden’s debate performance receiving harsh marks from nearly all sides following the event, it may be safe to surmise that the Democrat president may have lost even more ground in a swing state like Arizona per the analysis from Tyson’s survey.
In the Real Clear Polling average, Trump leads Biden by 5.8% in the Grand Canyon State. At this point in the 2020 campaign, Biden led Trump in Arizona by a 5% average, and Clinton led Trump by an average of .5% in 2016. In 2020, Biden went on to narrowly edge Trump by .3% in Arizona, and Trump defeated Clinton by 3.5% in the state for the 2016 contest.
Arizona’s eleven electoral college votes will be critical to securing the presidency. Both Republicans and Democrats realize the importance of this state and those votes and are deploying a massive number of resources for this race and many others that will determine the political future for the southwestern state.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
