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Arizona May Gain Tenth Congressional Representative

January 6, 2024

By Elizabeth Troutman |

Arizona could gain a tenth congressional seat if population trends continue, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s new 2023 population estimates.

Population estimates for 2023 released on Dec. 19 show Arizona, Florida, and Idaho gaining one additional seat in the House of Representatives and Texas gaining two additional seats.

Arizona and Idaho narrowly missed gaining a seat with the official apportionment counts two years ago. Arizona was only 79,509 away from adding a tenth seat, while Idaho was 27,579 away from a third.

The estimates show Illinois, Minnesota, and New York each losing one seat, while California would lose two.

The Census Bureau’s new population estimates would provide both the Grand Canyon State and Idaho with the needed seats for a new representative. Arizona would have 111,058 people above the cut-off for an additional seat.

Arizona’s population growth ranked seventh highest in the United States from 2022-2023, increasing by more than 66,000. Arizona had 7,365,684 residents in 2022 and rose to 7,431,344 in 2023, census data shows.

Election Data Services also predicts that 13 states would change seat numbers by the end of the decade, with eight states gaining one or more seats and seven states losing one or more seats.

Arizona would gain one seat; Florida would gain three; Georgia, Idaho, Utah, North Carolina, and Tennessee would gain one; and Texas would gain four.

But the Census Bureau noted potential inaccuracy in its 2030 predictions.

“Projections tend to assume a straightforward line from the initial points of observation on a linear line to the end point,” a news release reads. “But changes can take place over the time period covered by the line.”

People may be drawn to Arizona due to its low taxes. Arizona’s flat individual income tax rate of 2.5 percent took effect in 2023.

The majority of Arizona’s new residents come from California, which has an income tax rate of 13 percent, the highest in the nation. One in every five people who moved to Arizona between 2017 and 2021 came from California, according to census data.

Elizabeth Troutman is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send her news tips using this link.

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