By Corinne Murdock |
2020 established Arizona as a purple state going blue, but the latest voter registration data indicates that the state may be shifting back to red. The data appears to align with predictions that the new legislative maps would favor Republicans.
The Yellow Sheet Report first reported the voter base shift. They obtained the data from DeMenna Public Affairs, a Phoenix-based government relations, public affairs, and political consulting firm.
LD9 went from slightly Democratic at a 2.6 percent advantage, to slightly Republican at a .071 percent advantage. The Senate seat will either be taken by State Senator Tyler Pace (R-Mesa), Republican candidate Robert Scantlebury, or Democratic candidate Eva Burch. House LD9 candidates are Republican candidates Mary Ann Mendoza and Kathy Pearce, and Democratic candidates Lorena Austin and Seth Blattman.
LD4 and LD13 increased Republicans’ advantage from 3.4 to 11.25 percent and 1.6 to 7 percent, respectively.
The only Senate candidates for LD4 are State Senators Nancy Barto (R-Phoenix) and Christine Marsh (D-Phoenix) — if the data forecasts the outcomes, it appears Barto will take the seat. The House race will see sole Democratic candidate Laura Terech face off against two of the six Republican candidates: John Arnold, Kenneth Bowers Jr., Vera Gebran, Matt Gress, Jana Jackson, and Maria Syms.
Senate LD13 candidates are State Senator J.D. Mesnard (R-Chandler) versus either one of two Democrats: Cindy Hans or Michael Morris. As for the House seats, State Representative Jennifer Pawlik (D-Chandler) will face two of the five Republicans running: Josh Askey, Ron Hardin, Liz Harris, Don Maes, and Julie Willoughby.
LD2 increased steadily from a Republican lead of 3.8 to 6.28 percent. That may not bode well for State Representative Judy Schwiebert (D-Phoenix), the lone Democratic candidate running for one of the House seats. She may end up facing State Representative Justin Wilmeth (R-Phoenix) and one of the other Republican candidates: Christian Lamar, Pierce Waychoff, Neil Desanti, and Reynold Ramsey.
State Representative Steve Kaiser (R-Phoenix) is uncontested in the Senate LD2 primary, and will face off against one of the two Democratic candidates: Jeanne Casteen or Victoria Thompson.
LD8 Democrats lost just under 45 percent of their advantage, dropping from 27.5 to 12.36 percent. State Senator Juan Mendez (D-Tempe) retains a decent margin against either of the Republicans running for the Senate seat: Roxana Holzapfel or Todd Howard. Vying for the House seats are State Representatives Melody Hernandez (D-Tempe) and Athena Salman (D-Tempe) as the Democratic candidates, with Republican candidates Caden Darrow and Bill Loughrige.
LD12 Democrats lost just under 66 percent of their advantage, dropping from 53.9 to 35.36 percent. State Representative Mitzi Epstein (D-Chandler) will likely win the Senate seat against either one of the Republican challengers: David Richardson or Suzanne Sharer. As for the House seat, five Democrats and two Republicans are vying for the seats: Democratic candidates Patty Contreras, Sam Huang, A.J. Kurdoglu, Stacey Travers, and Paul Weich versus Republican candidates Jim Chaston and Terry Roe.
Only one legislative district shrunk for Republicans: LD16, where the advantage dropped from 3.6 to 1.04 percent. That makes the Senate race tighter for State Senator T.J. Shope (R-Phoenix) and Republican Daniel Wood, either one of whom may face Democrat Taylor Kerby. State Representative Teresa Martinez (R-Oro Valley) has two other Republicans in the race, Rob Hudelson and Braden Biggs, and one Democrat, Keith Seaman.