Maricopa County voters appear to be locked in with their support of a sales tax renewal for the November General Election.
Earlier this month, Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) released a poll to show that Maricopa County voters were overwhelmingly in support of Proposition 479.
Proposition 479 is a result of SB 1102, which was passed in 2023, requiring “that the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors call a countywide election for the continuation of the county transportation tax at least two years before the expiration of the tax, and shall conduct that election on a consolidated election date no less than one year before the expiration of the tax.”
The official title of the measure is the “Regional Strategic Transportation Infrastructure Investment Plan.”
If passed by Maricopa County voters, the revenues would be allocated in the following manner: “(a) 40.5 percent to freeways and other routes in the state highway system; (b) 37 percent to public transportation; and (c) 22.5 percent to arterial streets, intersection improvements and regional transportation infrastructure.”
According to the September survey released from NPI, Proposition 479 had 64 percent support from voters in August, compared to 18 percent opposition. Nineteen percent of voters were undecided about the question at hand.
The numbers for Proposition 479 are largely unchanged from two previous polls, dating back to July 2023. Opposition to the measure has only increased by a single percentage point since July 2023, while support has increased by eight percent during that same time frame.
“Maricopa County voters have had their minds made up for a year on this proposition – campaigns for it have clearly worked, and Prop 479 is on the fast track to victory in November,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO.
After the Arizona Legislature passed a compromise for this proposal in July 2023, Republican Senate President Warren Petersen claimed victory, calling SB 1102 “the most conservative transportation plan in our state’s history.” He added, “The guardrails, taxpayer protections and funding allocations in the text of this bill reflect the priorities of voters, to reinvest their tax dollars in the transportation modes they use most.”
Democrat Governor Katie Hobbs, who signed the compromise, was diplomatic in her statement, saying, “Today, bipartisan leaders invested in the future of Arizona families, businesses, and communities. The passage of the Prop 400 ballot measure will secure the economic future of our state and create hundreds of thousands of good-paying jobs for Arizonans. I am glad we were able to put politics aside and do what is right for Arizona.”
Members of the Arizona Freedom Caucus were adamantly opposed to the bill as it was released and approved. After the Prop 400 plan passed through the Arizona Legislature, the Freedom Caucus tweeted, “Legislative conservatives near unanimously opposed this horrible bill. Conservative watchdog groups unanimously opposed it. The bill may have been better than the communists at @MAGregion’s horrific plan, but that’s a ludicrously low bar for success. This bill was antithetical to conservatism.”
The breakthrough on the Prop 400 compromise between Republicans and Democrats in Arizona’s divided government took place after Governor Hobbs vetoed a Republican proposal earlier that summer. At that time, Hobbs stated, “I just vetoed the partisan Prop 400 bill that fails to adequately support Arizona’s economic growth and does nothing to attract new business or create good-paying jobs.”
In May 2023, the governor had created unrest over ongoing negotiations, allegedly sending out a tweet that highlighted her fight with Republicans at the Legislature at the same time she was meeting with Senate President Warren Petersen.
Petersen stressed the importance of the agreed-upon bill, asserting that officials had “secured a good, responsible product for the citizens of Arizona to consider in 2024, giving voters the option to enhance critical infrastructure that our entire state relies upon.”
This NPI poll took place between August 12-16 with just over 1,000 registered Arizona voters, including 595 individuals in Maricopa County.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
Governor Katie Hobbs and the Republican-led legislature are headed for another showdown.
This week, Arizona Republicans introduced and passed their proposal for a Prop 400 resolution, sending their legislation to the Governor’s Office. According to a press release from the Arizona State Senate Republican Caucus, “The Proposition 400 extension supported by Republican Legislators and outlined in SB 1246 establishes two questions to be placed on the ballot. Question number one covers funding for freeways, arterial roads and the bus program. If voters approve the proposed 0.43% sales tax on question number one, this plan would increase funding for highway projects by $1.47 billion more than the proposal being pushed by Governor Katie Hobbs and the Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG). It would also shift $1 billion from undefined uses like ‘active transportation’ and ‘air quality’ to actual arterial road projects that drivers use every day. If voters approve the proposed 0.065% sales tax on question two, MAG will receive their request for light rail rehabilitation.”
SB 1246, as amended, passed the state house with a 31-26 vote (three members not voting) and the state senate with a 16-12 tally (two members not voting).
Senate President Warren Petersen defended his side’s proposal, saying, “MAG’s proposal is a shell game, where local road project funds are diminished to allow for light rail expansion. Our Prop. 400 extension proposal allows voters to fully evaluate the transportation plan on its merits to determine which funding options best fit their preferred commute patterns. If voters approve question one and reject question two, the valley’s freeways, arterial roads and bus program will be fully funded, and the sales tax will be reduced by 13%.”
House Speaker Ben Toma spoke in support of the legislation before voting Tuesday, stating, “This has been a long time coming, and Maricopa County voters deserve real choices in how their sales taxes continue to get spent. Transparent Prop 400 expansion gives voters that real choice and puts Arizona’s critical infrastructure first. Rather than mixing vague, controversial projects with real improvements to freeways, major roads, and buses, SB 1246 moves over a billion dollars from undefined programs to actual road projects… In short, this transparent extension puts Maricopa County residents first and fulfills our commitment to smart and responsible spending.”
Shortly after the Legislature’s actions on Tuesday, the governor promised a veto on the Republicans’ plan, tweeting, “From day one, I promised I would be laser-focused on growing our economy and bringing high-paying jobs to our state for Arizona workers. Republican leadership’s partisan bill does neither of those things, and will be vetoed when it reaches my desk. Now, it’s time for legislators to vote on a compromise that is supported by a bipartisan majority in both chambers, business and labor leaders, and Maricopa County cities. Republican leadership needs to stop playing partisan games, put the bipartisan compromise up for a vote, and stop holding our state’s economic potential hostage.”
Now, it’s time for legislators to vote on a compromise that is supported by a bipartisan majority in both chambers, business and labor leaders, and Maricopa County cities. Republican leadership needs to stop playing partisan games, put the bipartisan compromise up for a vote, and…
— Governor Katie Hobbs (@GovernorHobbs) June 14, 2023
Before the Republicans passed their proposal on Tuesday, Governor Hobbs released a statement to highlight ongoing disagreements over a Prop 400 proposal, writing, “From day one, I promised that I would be laser-focused on growing our economy and bringing high-paying jobs to our state for Arizona workers. That’s exactly what this proposal does, and business leaders, labor leaders, and mayors across Arizona agree. But Republican legislative leadership is holding our economy hostage and holding back our state’s potential to be the leader in new, fast-growing industries.”
From day one, I promised that I would be laser-focused on growing our economy and bringing high-paying jobs to our state for Arizona workers. That's exactly what our Prop 400 compromise does, and business leaders, labor leaders, and mayors across Arizona agree.
— Governor Katie Hobbs (@GovernorHobbs) June 10, 2023
Hobbs then encouraged Republican legislators to make a deal with her on this pressing issue, saying, “I’m calling on those legislators to put their partisan politics aside and accept this compromise so that we can keep our economy growing for Arizona families.”
The Governor’s Office included details on the proposed deal, which included the following:
“Sets allocations at: 40% for freeways, 22% for arterials, and 38% for transit with the elimination of flexibility between the modes
Sets aside 3.5% for the capital rehabilitation of the existing light rail system
Includes proposed farebox language to provide statutorily prescribed benchmarks for farebox recovery consistent with our peers
Road diet language applies to arterial and freeway projects
Includes definitions for air quality and regional programs”
Arizona House Speaker Ben Toma took issue with the governor’s statement over the weekend, responding to reporters: “The Governor has chosen to be an uncompromising conduit for an inefficient MAG proposal that does not have sufficient votes to succeed in the House. I remain willing to negotiate, but their take-or-leave-it attitude is decidedly unproductive. We are prepared to move a more efficient alternative on Monday and work from there.” That alternative came to fruition on Tuesday.
The Arizona Freedom Caucus also pushed back on the governor’s statement, tweeting, “It’s ironic that Hobbs is pretending that she’s been involved in this issue for more than a few days. Hobbs has said very little about, and done even less, on prop 400 beyond this last week. Unfortunately for the people of Arizona, Hobbs was apparently more focused on firing yet another senior staffer and wasting the last month instead of being at the table on this issue with legislative leaders. Now instead of working with the legislature, Hobbs is choosing to shill for mayors to shove a wildly unpopular light rail boondoggle down everyone’s throats. Hobbs and MAG’s take it or leave it attitude is childish and impedes reaching a real agreement. It serves as yet more evidence that she has no idea how to lead or govern, and isn’t interested in solving complex problems, but rather just wants to play petulant political games.”
It’s ironic that Hobbs is pretending that she’s been involved in this issue for more than a few days.
Hobbs has said very little about, and done even less, on prop 400 beyond this last week.
Unfortunately for the people of Arizona, Hobbs was apparently more focused on firing… https://t.co/nKWLb5vtwG
— Arizona Freedom Caucus (@AZFreedomCaucus) June 11, 2023
The governor has been chasing headlines over Prop 400 negotiations in recent weeks. On May 24, Hobbs used her official Twitter account to share an opinion piece from the Arizona Republic’s Editorial Board, posting, “The @azcentral editorial board is right: Prop 400 is critical to build businesses, create jobs, and secure our booming economic future. Arizona could face real consequences if we fail to pass a bill. It’s time for the Legislature to stop playing games. Maricopa county voters deserve the chance to make their voices heard.”
The @azcentral editorial board is right: Prop 400 is critical to build businesses, create jobs, and secure our booming economic future. Arizona could face real consequences if we fail to pass a bill.
It’s time for the Legislature to stop playing games. Maricopa county voters…
— Governor Katie Hobbs (@GovernorHobbs) May 24, 2023
That tweet from the governor elicited a surprising comment from Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen, who said, “This is a bizarre tweet. We had just started a meeting with the governor about prop 400 while this tweet was sent out. Our plan has more roads, less congestion and is a better value to the taxpayer.”
This is a bizarre tweet. We had just started a meeting with the governor about prop 400 while this tweet was sent out. Our plan has more roads, less congestion and is a better value to the taxpayer. https://t.co/cfBF0GGM9v
The Prop 400 package put together by the Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG) is in serious trouble at the legislature, and Katie Hobbs and the transit lobby knows it. So, in a desperate attempt to rescue their defective plan, they have phoned a friend to see if a little legacy media pressure will improve their flagging fortunes at the Capitol.
In recent weeks, the AZ Republic has unleashed a torrent of articles and opinion pieces attempting to scare the legislature into sending their transit slush fund package up to Hobbs’ desk. Most of their writings have been nothing more than recycled talking points from MAG and transit industry lobbyists attacking conservative lawmakers and critics (like the Club) for opposing a plan that slashes freeway funding and increases traffic congestion in the region.
A couple weeks ago it was in the form of an editorial that claimed to disprove our Prop 400 criticism by “relitigating” the merits of bus and light rail and proving its value in the region. And now over the weekend, their opinion writers couldn’t race out fast enough to promote the press release issued by Katie Hobbs and the transit lobby that the legislature needs to adopt a fake “compromise” MAG plan.
In short, their efforts to “relitigate” the merits of transit or to declare that there is any type of “compromise” only demonstrate how radical their position really is.
Here are just a few examples of how the Republic has veered from journalism to being nothing more than a lobbying arm of the transit lobby:
Last legislative session our organization led the opposition to the Maricopa Association of Governments’ (MAG) Prop 400 sales tax extension, SB1356, criticizing the plan for its massive expansion of transit spending, lack of oversight, and vague allocations of spending that amounted to a slush fund for government bureaucrats. It was astonishing the lack of answers we received to simple questions about the plan and how funds would be spent.
We suspected at the time that we weren’t being told the whole story and that ulterior motives were at play. Only now do we know how right we were.
Governor Ducey’s veto of MAG’s defective Prop 400 plan provided a reset of the Prop 400 debate. Coupled with new legislative leadership not beholden to MAG and the transit lobby, they could no longer avoid a debate of their unvetted proposal. So, after several months of legislative hearings and substantive meetings at the Capitol, what critical information has MAG been hiding from lawmakers and the public?
Arizona taxpayers are tired. It’s bad enough that our state has been getting crushed by the highest inflation rate in the country, but during this past November’s election, the government tried to swoop in and take more of your hard-earned dollars out of your wallet. This time, Arizona voters said enough is enough. Not only did they reject several tax increases, but they ensured victory for one key protection against future tax increases.
Arizonans Reject Prop 310
Prop 310 aimed to increase the statewide sales tax by 0.1% to fund fire districts throughout Arizona, and its proponents used the oldest trick in the book. Just like we’ve seen with past education or transportation tax increases, they tried to convince voters that Prop 310 would only cost them a penny when they buy coffee or a dime when they buy dinner.
