Home value appreciation continues to break records and typical time on market is down to just six days. Meanwhile, rents are rising quickly across the U.S., breaking out after growth was stymied under the pandemic.
Annual home appreciation reached 13.2% in May while monthly growth was 1.7%, both of which are new records within Zillow data reaching back through 1996. Typical home values now stand at $287,148 . Month over month growth accelerated in 47 of the 50 largest U.S. markets and decelerated in just three — roughly matching the local market heat in April.
Austin retained its lead in annual appreciation with a blistering 30.5% increase over 2020, followed by Phoenix (23.5%) and Salt Lake City (20.6%). Even the metros with the lowest annual appreciation — Orlando , New Orleans and Oklahoma City — still put up historically strong numbers above 9%.
Typical rents rose substantially, accelerating from 1.3% monthly growth in April to 2.3% in May — the largest monthly appreciation since 2015. Rents hit $1,747 in May, up 5.4% or $89 over last year. Rent appreciation is especially strong in the Inland West. Of the 100 largest U.S. metros, the top eight for annual rent growth are Boise , Phoenix , Spokane , Las Vegas , Riverside , Stockton , Fresno , and Albuquerque — all with increases higher than 15%.
The list of major cities with lower rents than last year shrank again, as Seattle and Chicago clawed into the green. Only the expensive coastal metros of San Francisco , San Jose , New York , Boston , and Washington D.C. remain in the red.
Zillow economists forecast home values to increase by 14.9% by May 2022 , an upward revision from the April forecast. Home sales are expected to reach 5.91 million in 2021, a 4.8% increase over 2020.
Mortgage rates listed by third-party lenders on Zillow began May at a monthly high of 2.69%, dropped down to a mere 2.63% on May 7 and 10 — close to all-time lows — and ended at a monthly high of 2.84%. Zillow’s real-time mortgage rates are based on thousands of custom mortgage quotes submitted daily to anonymous borrowers on the Zillow Group Mortgages site by third-party lenders and reflect recent changes in the market.
The failure of the Patriot Party of Arizona to properly circulate petitions in its effort to recall House Speaker Rusty Bowers is the latest example of how difficult it can be for the average citizen to comply with confusing laws written by legislators to protect themselves from recalls.
On Thursday, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office (SOS) announced it would not count any of the estimated 24,500 signatures contained on 2,040 recall petitions submitted by the Patriot Party of Arizona. The reason given by the SOS is that the petitions sheets were not attached to a “time-and-date marked copy” of the recall application.
A recall petition states the reason a recall election is being sought against a current elected official. It also includes room for several registered voters within the jurisdiction of the elected official to affix their name, address, and signature.
The number of signatures needed to get a recall election on the ballot is determined by state statute; for Bowers’ recall organizers it was 22,311. But before any signatures can be gathered someone had to apply for a recall serial number by which all paperwork will be filed and tracked.
It is two other recall statutes which have tripped up at least two other recall efforts in recent years due to the fact the two statutes have to “taken together,” the Arizona Supreme Court ruled in 2019. Such an interpretation requires a “time-and-date marked copy” of the recall application with the official serial number to be “attached” to each petition sheet.
The Patriot Party of Arizona declined to comment on the SOS’s determination about the non-attached applications.
Bowers attracted the wrath of the Republican-spinoff group by not supporting 2020 election fraud claims and not pushing back against Gov. Doug Ducey’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Public support for the recall effort came from well-known pro-Trump names, including attorney Sidney Powell, America Restored executive director Tomi Collins, and My Pillow CEO Mike Lindell.
For his part, Bowers (R-LD25) publicly stated this week he expected to stand later this year for a recall election. “I was gearing up to go through a recall,” he said.
The non-compliance by the Patriot Party of Arizona is somewhat similar to the situation Tanya Duarte found herself in when trying to recall then-Mayor Robert Uribe of Douglas in 2019. Duarte applied for a recall number and made dozens of copies of the time-date copy of the application, which were placed behind each petition on a clipboard.
This made the application readily available for anyone to read, Duarte later testified. The Douglas city clerk initially certified 668 petition signatures, more than enough to force Uribe to stand for election 10 months before the end of his term.
But Uribe’s wife -as a Douglas voter- challenged all of the signatures due to the lack of applications attached to the petitions.
Judge David Thorn of the Cochise County Superior Court heard the case and noted that lawmakers failed to include a description in the recall statutes for how the application copy is to be attached to the petition. He even pulled out an ordinary dictionary to review definitions of the word attached.
In the end Thorn ruled the common language definition requires the application copy to be affixed or adhered to the petition whether “it be tape, staple, glue” or some other manner to ensure the two documents are not easily separated.
Thorn also commented that the Legislature “gets to make laws, to make it more exacting” for average citizens to recall public officials.
The Arizona Supreme Court also tackled the recall process in 2019 after the Urban Phoenix Project political action committee (Committee) ran into the “attached” issue during its attempt to recall then-City Councilman Michael Nowakowski in 2018.
The group submitted petitions containing more than 2,300 signatures from which the city clerk deemed enough were valid to make Nowakowski stand for election again. But a voter of Nowakowski’s district challenged the city clerk’s decision, arguing in part that a copy of the application was not attached to any of the petitions.
A Maricopa County judge ruled the City Clerk should not have counted any of the petitions due to missing copies of the application. The case went to the Arizona Supreme Court where then-Chief Justice Scott Bales authored a unanimous opinion which acknowledged the effort it takes to collect so many signatures.
The opinion also noted the recall statutes can be confusing for most citizens. But the two separate statutes related to circulating petitions have to be read together in order for any signatures to be valid, Bales wrote.
“The time-and-date-marked copy of the application –unlike the petition sheets– both identifies the applicant (including any organization, certain officers, and contact information) and reflects that the application has in fact been filed. Requiring the attachment of a such a copy also helps ensure that signatures are not obtained before the application is filed,” consistent with state law, he wrote.
“Our state constitution guarantees voters the right to recall elected officers for whatever reasons they choose…That right, however, must be exercised pursuant to constitutional and statutory provisions,” Bales added.
Governor Doug Ducey today signed a bipartisan relief package to support firefighters and safety officials as they battle wildfires, ensure Arizona communities have the resources necessary for post-fire disasters such as flooding and reduce the risk from future wildfires.
The $100 million package passed with strong bipartisan support during a legislative special session called by the Governor after a visit to the Telegraph and Mescal Fires last week.
“We are in the midst of another catastrophic wildfire season, and it’s clear that we need to do more to fight these wildfires,” said Governor Ducey. “Many Arizona communities have already felt the impacts of this year’s wildfire season — people and pets have been displaced, homes have burned down, swaths of land have been decimated. I’m grateful that we were able to quickly come together in a bipartisan manner for the safety and protection of our communities. My thanks goes to our first responders working tirelessly to combat these fires, local and state agency leaders for their leadership during this time, and the legislators who worked across the aisle to get this bill passed.”
The wildfire relief package was led by a bipartisan group of legislators representing both rural and urban Arizona, including House Speaker Rusty Bowers, Representative Gail Griffin, Representative David Cook, House Minority Leader Reginald Bolding, Senate President Karen Fann, Senate President Pro Tem Vince Leach, Senator Sine Kerr and Senate Minority Leader Rebecca Rios.
House Bill 2001 includes:
$24.6 million for a partnership between the Department of Forest and Fire Management and the Arizona Department of Corrections, Rehabilitation and Reentry to reduce wildfire risk to Arizona communities by removing fire-prone vegetation; and
$75 million for fire suppression efforts, recovery efforts including post-fire floods, economic assistance for those displaced, and assistance to landowners for emergency repairs to infrastructure damaged by wildfires.
“Thank you, Governor, for allowing us to work together, and thank you, Minority Leader Bolding and Leader Rios, for your help on an issue where we can come together for a common goal,” House Speaker Rusty Bowers said. “People who aren’t Republicans or Democrats – they’re just our friends and people.”
“I look forward to partnering with my colleagues on continuing bipartisan success because wildfires don’t care which party you belong to,” said Senator Sine Kerr, who introduced House Bill 2001’s mirror legislation in the Senate.
Arizona is currently in the midst of fire season, having already experienced 918 wildfires burning over 245,000 acres this year. The Telegraph Fire visited by the Governor last week is currently the sixth-largest wildfire in state history.
“There is no question that there was an enormous need to dedicate as many resources as possible to fight the currently active wildfires as well as to prevent future ones from occurring,” Senate Minority Leader Rebecca Rios said. “I applaud the governor for calling a special session to address this extraordinary wildfire season. This was clearly a major issue that needed immediate attention, and I’m grateful for Governor Ducey’s action in bringing bipartisan leadership to work together to address this critical need.”
“We must do what we are doing today to react to this emergency, but we must also do everything in our power to mitigate the crisis for future generations – and we must do that together,” House Minority Leader Reginald Bolding said. “Thank you again, Governor Ducey. My colleagues in both the Republican caucus and our caucus stand ready to work together and ready to move forward.”
The Governor was also joined by Department of Forestry and Fire Management Director David Tenney, Department of Emergency and Military Affairs Director and Adjutant General Kerry Muehlenbeck and Gila County Supervisor Steve Christensen.
“I’d like to thank the Governor for calling this special session on behalf of Gila County and rural Arizona,” said Gila County Supervisor Steve Christensen. “The leadership in Gila County says thank you for being an advocate for Arizona. I’d like to extend my thanks to the Legislature and their willingness to work in a bipartisan way.”
On June 9, the Governor issued two Declarations of Emergency in response to the Telegraph and Mescal Fires in Pinal and Gila Counties. The orders made up to $400,000 available for response efforts, and followed a request to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for a Fire Management Assistance Grant on June 6.
In March, the Governor signed Senate Bill 1442 to prevent wildfires by allowing for additional partnerships to employ Arizona inmates to clear forests of debris. The legislation aligns with the Arizona Healthy Forest Initiative proposed in the Governor’s budget which builds on proven methods to protect communities, while engaging individuals in state correctional facilities to equip them with new skills and reduce recidivism.
In a very efficient use of 72 hours, the Arizona Legislature finished a special session called by Gov. Doug Ducey to approve a $100 million supplemental appropriation bill which will fund fire suppression and fire mitigation efforts across the state.
“This will help our brave firefighters, at-risk communities and so many Arizonans,” said Ducey, who is expected to sign the HB2001 on Friday. The bill passed with bipartisan support from 24 of 30 senators and 56 of 60 house members.
Much of the funds are earmarked for the Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management (DFFM) but millions will also be spent for inmate and non-inmate labor related to work crews from the Arizona Department of Corrections.
The legislation addresses targeted investments toward the labor and equipment needed for wildfire prevention and preparedness, as well as response and recovery operations. Some of the funding is also earmarked for economic assistance for those displaced by fires or post-fire floods.
Only minimal amendments were made to the proposed legislation which had been sent to lawmakers earlier this week with Ducey’s blessing. One amendment changed a job title while another set a $10 million cap for funds to be used as a last resort for private landowners who experience infrastructure damage related to a fire or post-fire flooding.
That reference to landowners triggered one of the biggest debates in the House after Rep. Andres Cano (D-LD3) sought to include $5 million dollars of “last resort” funds for small business owners, many of whom may suffer losses from wildfires but do not own the land on which their business operates.
Rep. Gail Griffin, who chairs the House Committee on Natural Resources, Energy, and Water, opposed the amendment even though she understood Cano’s concern. The problem, explained Griffin (R-LD14), is that a lot of effort was put into drafting the special session legislation and any extra items lawmakers want to fund should be addressed once back in regular session.
Cano’s amendment died on a voice vote. But he attempted to add the amendment back on via a motion once the main bill made it to the House floor. Cano’s effort failed, but it triggered a roll call vote by each representative.
It was revealed during the roll call that Rep. Travis Grantham (R-LD12) had been given permission by House Speaker Rusty Bowers to vote via text message because Grantham was in an aircraft at the time. A rules challenge was sustained which forced Bowers to disallow Grantham’s no vote on Cano’s motion. It also meant Grantham was unable to cast a vote for the fire suppression bill.
Arizona State Forester David Tenney, who is also DFFM’s director, warned lawmakers during a meeting Wednesday that the destructive Telegraph and Mescal wildfires near Globe are just a glimpse of what is expected to be a severe wildfire season in Arizona. He said last year more than 900,000 acres burned statewide; as of Thursday 300,000 acres have burned in 2021 with months of other fires expected.
One-quarter of the $100 million appropriation will serve a dual role: it will fund several ongoing fire industry positions in addition to 720 ADC inmates who will perform fire fuel or vegetation mitigation at sites throughout the state. Tenney says he hopes the crews can clear 20,000 acres annually.
In addition to Grantham, several lawmakers did not participate in the final vote on the fire bill even though remote “Zoom” voting is allowed. They were Rep. Joseph Chaplik (R-LD23) along with Sens. Lela Alston (D-LD24), Sally Ann Gonzales (D-LD3), Tyler Pace (R-LD25), and Kelly Townsend (R-LD16).
Those who voted against the bill were Sens. Michelle Ugenti-Rita (R-LD23) and Juan Mendez (D-LD26), as well as Reps. Melody Hernandez (D-LD26) and Athena Salman (D-LD26).
Up next for the legislature is trying to pass an 11-bill budget package which had the blessing from Ducey after it was announced Arizona had a nearly $2 billion surplus. The current fiscal year ends June 30 so no new budget would mean a partial state government shutdown.
There has been a stalemate in both chambers related to the three key points of the package: how much to allocate for new spending versus paying down debt, how much of the surplus to refund to taxpayers, and whether or not to transition Arizona to a flat-rate income tax.
To pass any of the 11 bills requires 31 votes in the House and 16 in the Senate. That happens to coincide with the number of Republicans in both chambers, but some members of that caucus have refused at different times to vote for the bills unless changes are made. Everyone is expected back to work Monday in hopes of resolving enough differences to secure the required votes.
Then attention will need to turn to 22 bills which Ducey vetoed when he grew frustrated with the lack of progress on the budget. The House and Senate have reintroduced all 22 bills but have not taken final action to reapprove them. There is also a chance that all or some of the governor’s vetoes could be the subject of a veto override vote.
The grand opening of a 60,000 square foot refrigerated warehouse in Nogales was used by Gov. Doug Ducey this week to draw attention to Arizona’s strong trade relationship with Mexico, the state’s top trading partner.
Ducey traveled to the Santa Cruz County border city Wednesday at the invitation of Jaime Chamberlain, president of Chamberlain Distributing which imports fruits and vegetables from the northern Mexico state of Sonora. The governor toured the facility and took part in an economic roundtable with local business and community leaders focused on Arizona’s economic relationship with Mexico.
I’m eager to see the success of Chamberlain Distribution’s St. James Cooler and the continued growth of Nogales. Grateful to all the businesses and everyone who makes Santa Cruz County a shining example of international commerce and trade! pic.twitter.com/RIkbaZLIqd
Nearly $16 billion in trade occurred between Arizona and Mexico in 2020, with more than $13 billion of that passing through the Nogales Port of Entry. And this month, the University of Arizona released its First Quarter 2021 AZMEX report of economic indicators showing Arizona exports into Mexico reached its highest level since mid-2019.
Ducey said commercial truck traffic into Arizona from Mexico increased by more than 2,500 vehicles in 2020 despite the COVID-19 pandemic which continues to restrict border crossings to essential traffic only. The new Chamberlain facility will help further Arizona’s relationship with Mexico and improve economic growth once the Biden Administration lifts cross-border travel restrictions, the governor said.
However, the UA AZMEX report also reveals the nearly $1.3 billion in fresh produce imports through Arizona’s ports of entry represented a nine percent decrease from the same period in 2020. And that lower supply will likely cause retail food prices to increase across the United States, according to Chamberlain.
Chamberlain noted the company’s new warehouse will help get produce into the United States faster and fresher, but farmers in Mexico are facing a variety of challenges that will boost production costs, something that will be passed along to consumers.
“The drought will curtail planting season and farmers will think twice what they’re able to plant and plant successfully,” Chamberlain explained, adding that higher production expenses for seeds and fuel are also driving up costs for farmers.
