January’s jobs report smashed expectations and signals a turning point in the labor market where job creation catches up with broader economic conditions. The report shows 130,000 jobs created, the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%, and labor force participation rising.
Economic growth last quarter was above 4% and is projected to be 4% again this quarter. The Dow Jones recently reached 50,000, as I predicted last fall. And gas prices and inflation are low.
Now workers are starting to feel the benefit in terms of associated job creation and wage growth. The jobs report shows workers’ real wages continuing to significantly rise, a stark contrast to their declines during the Biden administration.
An added bonus: Parasitical federal government jobs continue to decline, falling 34,000 last month and more than 10% since Donald Trump took office. Government jobs too often padded previous employment reports when the relevant metric should be productive private-sector job creation.
Strong labor-market, economic, and financial-market growth doesn’t happen in a vacuum. It’s the result of good public policy that empowers Main Street over big government.
Exhibit A is last year’s Republican tax cuts. These tax cuts prevented the largest middle-class tax hike in history from occurring. They empowered small businesses by restoring and making permanent 100% immediate expensing and locking in a 20% deduction on earnings. These tax cuts are game changers for job creators, incentivizing them to expand, hire, and raise wages.
Despite delivering one of the most consequential tax cuts in modern American history, however, Republicans are somehow trailing Democrats on the issue of taxes, according to new Fox News polling. Even though every single Democrat voted against them.
This isn’t just backwards. It’s political malpractice fueled by a media ecosystem that has abandoned facts in favor of Democratic talking points. Voters have been told again and again — by headlines, by cable news panels, by progressive activists masquerading as journalists — that Republicans are the party of “tax breaks for billionaires.”
In reality, these are middle-class tax cuts that actually make the tax code more progressive.
A stronger economy, rising 401(k) balances, and higher living standards will help blunt the impact of this misinformation and convert some independents. But small businesses and conservatives have a responsibility to spread the word to right this polling wrong.
Every small business with a tax-savings story needs to speak up in their communities, with their employees, and on their social media, explaining how these tax cuts have helped them survive and thrive. That’s the least they can do in return for these tax savings.
Meanwhile, conservatives need to start singing from the same page on these uniting economic issues. A strong opportunity, affordability, and standard-of-living message, combined with a focus on deporting violent criminals and sanity on culture issues, is the winning approach Republicans need to boost their polling and hold onto Congress this fall.
The first step is connecting the dots between small-business tax cuts, job creation, and affordability.
Alfredo Ortiz is a contributor to The Daily Caller News Foundation, CEO of Job Creators Network, author of “The Real Race Revolutionaries,” and co-host of the Main Street Matters podcast.
Arizona’s labor market continued to struggle in July, losing nearly 5,000 jobs and marking the state’s third consecutive month of employment decline, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The state shed 4,900 nonfarm jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis last month, a 0.15% decrease that ranked Arizona 46th among all states in monthly job growth. Since April, the state has lost a total of 23,400 jobs—the steepest decline in both raw numbers and percentage change of any state in the nation.
Nationally, employment also slipped, falling 0.12% in July. Twenty-one states reported job losses.
On a year-over-year basis, Arizona gained 29,600 jobs, a 0.9% increase that puts the state roughly in line with the national average of 1.0%. But the pace of growth has slowed sharply compared to recent years. So far in 2025, Arizona has added just 5,200 jobs—an average of 743 per month. Between 2022 and 2024, monthly job growth averaged more than 5,300.
Economists say the state remains well below its pre-pandemic trajectory. Arizona now has about 254,400 fewer workers than it would have had if its 2017–2019 growth trend had continued. At the current pace, the gap is unlikely to close.
The state’s mining and logging industry was the strongest performer, adding 1,400 jobs in July and growing nearly 10% over the past year. Analysts credit federal policy shifts and rising demand for U.S.-sourced raw materials like copper and uranium for the sector’s continued momentum.
By contrast, manufacturing continued to contract, losing 1,100 jobs last month and more than 3,000 over the past year—a 1.6% decline. Nationwide, the sector has also struggled, with 29 states reporting year-over-year manufacturing job losses. Leisure and hospitality posted the steepest monthly decline in Arizona, down 0.9% in July.
Arizona’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, holding steady for the fifth straight month. The labor force participation rate also stayed flat at 61.4%. By comparison, the U.S. unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% in July, while the national participation rate edged down to 62.2%. Both Arizona and the nation remain below pre-pandemic participation levels.
Wages showed modest improvement. Average hourly earnings in Arizona increased by 10 cents in July to $34.79, a 0.29% rise that ranked 18th among all states. Over the past 12 months, wages in the state climbed 4.9%, outpacing the national average of 3.9%. Adjusted for inflation, real wages in Arizona are up 4% compared to just 1.1% nationwide.
Still, long-term wage trends tell a different story. Since April 2020, inflation-adjusted pay in Arizona has fallen 4.1%.
The report also underscored concerns about the reliability of monthly employment estimates. June’s figures were revised downward sharply—from a reported loss of 8,400 jobs to a revised loss of 15,200. That revision ranked as the seventh largest adjustment among all states.
Economists caution that declining survey response rates and lingering disruptions from the pandemic have increased volatility in state-level labor data, making short-term trends harder to interpret.
Jonathan Eberle is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
Congressman David Schweikert revealed the truth about job numbers after an update was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics which claimed the economy under outgoing President Joe Biden added 256,000 jobs in the month of December.
“As we transition to a new administration, the December jobs report provides an essential opportunity to assess the economic policies of the Biden administration and the challenges facing hardworking Americans,” stated Schweikert, Vice Chairman of the Joint Economic Committee.
“While the December data demonstrates strong employment growth, having increased 2.2 million in 2024, the report underscores persistent issues that demand immediate attention,” added Schweikert.
“Under the Biden administration, American families have faced unprecedented economic headwinds, including inflation rates that outpaced wage growth for much of the last four years. Policies prioritizing excessive spending and burdensome regulations have strained small businesses, stifled innovation, and eroded purchasing power. While there have been temporary gains in certain heavily subsidized sectors, the broader economic foundation remains unstable,” concluded an exasperated Schweikert.
In a post to X, the Joint Economic Committee Republicans summarized, “In December, employment rose by 256K, averaging a monthly gain of 186K in 2024. While these gains are notable, challenges remain: an unemployment rate above 4% for the past 8 months and a historically low labor force participation rate.”
In December, employment rose by 256K, averaging a monthly gain of 186K in 2024.
While these gains are notable, challenges remain: an unemployment rate above 4% for the past 8 months and a historically low labor force participation rate.
— Joint Economic Committee Republicans (@JECRepublicans) January 10, 2025
In his remarks Friday, Schweikert added, “It’s imperative that we prioritize policies which foster economic growth, encourage innovation, empower domestic businesses, and restore confidence in our markets.”
He added, “Reducing government overreach, prioritizing fiscal responsibility, and enacting tax reform that incentivize investment while rewarding hard work are the most crucial facets of restoring American prosperity.”
“I am committed to working with my colleagues to enact solutions that address these economic challenges and create a thriving future for all Americans. Together, we can ensure that 2025 is the beginning of a stronger, more resilient future for all Americans.”
Payroll employment rose by 2.2 million in 2024 (an average monthly gain of 186,000), with some industries growing more than others. pic.twitter.com/dzesehbhMG
— Joint Economic Committee Republicans (@JECRepublicans) January 10, 2025
The update from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is infamously subject to revision as well. This proved to be a factor that badly hurt the Biden administration and the Kamala Harris campaign in August 2024 when the BLS estimate of new jobs created between March of 2023 and March of 2024 was revised down by almost 818,000 or about 30%. The release was allegedly intended after November 5th but was leaked according to President-elect Donald Trump.
Rep. Jodey Arrington, Chairman of the House Budget Committee, observed at the time, “Based on more comprehensive data released from state unemployment tax records, the Biden Bureau of Labor Statistics acknowledges they were way off on the number of new jobs created between March of 2023 and March of 2024 by almost one million or 30%, which is five times their average margin of error. The economy is the top issue in this presidential race and the recent downwardly revised job numbers taken together with persistently high prices and interest rates bellies a much weaker Biden-Harris economy than we were led to believe.”
Accusations that the Biden White House deliberately inflated the jobs numbers abounded with President-elect Donald Trump addressing the revision directly calling it a “total lie,” and “a scandal.”
President Trump addresses report that Biden-Harris Labor Department inflated jobs numbers by 818,000 during speech in Asheboro, NC pic.twitter.com/mNyq6JJ3XL
Trump told supporters in Asheboro, NC, at the time, “The Harris-Biden Administration has been caught fraudulently manipulating job statistics to hid the true extent of the economic ruin that they’ve inflicted on America.”
Schweikert’s office provided a few highlights of the BLS report, noting that the outgoing legacy of the Biden administration will be marked by:
“Real wages failing to keep pace with inflation, leaving many families burdened with record-high levels of credit card debt and preventing the ability to grow savings.
A labor force participation rate that has struggled to recover to pre-pandemic levels, leaving millions of Americans sidelined from economic opportunities.
The failure to address workforce development, with an uneven rate of job openings compared to worker skills, leaving both manufacturing and construction industries with critical labor shortages.”
This analysis looks at President Trump’s first three years in office—2017, 2018 and 2019, the pre-COVID era—to get a more unbiased view of the policy impact of his approach.
In Trump’s first three years:
Trump extended economic growth to achieve the longest economic expansion in the history of the U.S.: 10.5 years.
To do this, Trump created 7.1 million full-time jobs in his first 3 years as president, the jobs that count: full-time jobs, in the pre-COVID era. This is more than an amazing feat because Trump only created 6.7 million total jobs. How did Trump increase full-time jobs by more than his total job increase? By making every job he created a full-time job, and, most importantly, converting 400,000 of Obama’s part-time jobs into full-time.
By comparison, Harris/Biden only created 1.0 million full-time jobs in the last two years, September 2022 to September 2024, the post-COVID era. Most of their job creation has been part-time jobs.
Trump created so many jobs that job openings exceeded the number of unemployed for the first time in history, not only exceeded but went on to double the number of unemployed.
The open job force was so strong under Trump’s first three years that he was stripping 160,000 people per month out of welfare for a total reduction of welfare recipients of 8.5 million, 19% of the total recipients.
The open job force was so strong that, for the first time ever, a million people left Social Security Disability and went from consuming Social Security tax dollars to paying into the system.
Trump pushed the bankruptcy date for the Social Security system back by years through welfare enrollment reduction and increased employment and wages.
Trump’s lowest unemployment rate of 3.5% was the lowest level since Eisenhower, just 0.1%, a tenth of a percent from its lowest level ever.
Trump set 12 all-time records for Black employment, pushing Black unemployment to its lowest level in recorded history, 5.3%, far below Obama’s lowest rate of 8.0%.
Trump reduced the personal income taxes for all families of four or more making $53,000 or less to zero. In the other 150+ countries of the world, such families are considered rich and pay tens of thousands in taxes. Economists have not begun to understand the full ramifications of this feat. In chess, it’s called checkmate. No other country can get the upper hand.
As a result, the wealth of the bottom 50% of the U.S. increased by $1.4 trillion under Trump. Under Obama’s last four years? 0.8 trillion
In a sane, rational world, Trump would have earned three economics Nobel prizes, setting records for trade, unemployment reduction, economic growth, and achieving economic equality. (That’s equality, not equity).
Trump’s strategy for his second term: the roaring 20s, where growth was 40% as compared to Obama’s 11%. The 1922 Fordney-McCumber tariffs of 40% were combined with a reduction of the personal income tax rate from 76% to 25% under Calvin Coolidge.
I am confident that Trump is eyeing a massive trade deal with China, just like Trump’s USMCA, which has shifted the trade balance of the world.
If Trump is successful at combining a modest and carefully designed broad tariff of 20% or less with equal or greater business tax rate reduction, we are likely to have the roaring 20s all over again. Hard to believe that the U.S. economy of $28 trillion could grow another 40% in the next four years but hold on to your hats.
John Huppenthal was the Arizona Superinterndent of Public Instruction from 2011-2015. Prior to this role, John served as a member of the Arizona State Senate and the Arizona House of Representatives. You can follow him on Twitter here.
Americans consistently voice their disapproval on the state of the economy in recent polls, largely because of the stratosphericcost of living. But apologists for the Biden administration point to the low unemployment rate of 3.9% in April as proof of the economy’s strength.
Yet this is a hollow talking point since the real unemployment rate is likely between 6.5 and 7.7%.
The unemployment rate is the percentage of people in the labor force who don’t have a job. That means the unemployment rate can change if either the number of people unemployed or the total size of the labor force changes.
The shocking reality is that somewhere between 4.7 million and 7 million people who aren’t working today are not included when calculating the unemployment rate. That artificially reduces the figure.
The reason these millions of Americans are uncounted began with the events of 2020.
When the government instituted draconian lockdowns across most of the economy in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, over 17 million people became unemployed, and another 8 million people immediately left the labor force.
As the economy slowly reopened across the country, millions of people began returning to work. That, of course, drove down the unemployment rate by reducing the number of unemployed people. Some of those who left the labor force also returned and eventually found jobs, further reducing the unemployment rate.
But there were also millions who left the labor market entirely and never returned. As such, they were no longer counted among the unemployed nor in the labor force. This pushed the unemployment rate down even more.
If those millions of people were to suddenly look for work again, it would greatly increase the labor force, but it would also increase the unemployment rate, at least until those job-seekers found work.
Official government data point to just how many workers are missing from the labor market today. Several metrics show a large gap between their current reading and their pre-pandemic trends. These include the employment level, the number of non-farm payrolls, the employment-to-population ratio and those not in the labor force.
The gap is between 4.7 million and 7 million people, all of whom are not working but are excluded from the unemployment rolls. If they were still counted as jobless members of the labor force, the unemployment rate would jump to between 6.5% and 7.7%.
The latter figure is almost twice the official unemployment rate. Even 6.5% would represent a significant spike.
Looking only at the unemployment rate can give a distorted view of the labor market. If unemployed people are looking for work and then get jobs, that causes the unemployment rate to fall. But, if those same people give up looking for work and leave the labor force, it has precisely the same effect on this metric.
Using additional data provides a better gauge of the labor market’s health and workers’ jobs satisfaction. Real, or inflation-adjusted, earnings are a good example—and they have plummeted.
While the average American worker’s weekly paycheck has increased $147 from January 2021 through April 2024, those earnings buy $47 less because prices have risen so much faster than incomes.
This has caused many Americans to work extra hours or pick up a second job. Among renters, more than one-fifth of them have taken on another job in order to pay their rent on time in the last few months.
That’s noteworthy because whenever someone is hired, whether it’s that person’s first or fourth job, it’s still counted as an additional payroll in the government’s monthly job statistics. With millions of Americans picking up additional work to try and make ends meet for their families, the number of jobs has risen much faster than the number of people employed.
Simply touting a low unemployment rate provides a view of the labor market that is at best incomplete and at worst deceptive. A comprehensive view of economic conditions for the working class shows why they are so unhappy: inflation has made it impossible for them to get ahead, no matter how many jobs they work.
E.J. Antoni is a contributor to the Daily Caller News Foundation, public finance economist and the Richard F. Aster Fellow at The Heritage Foundation, and a senior fellow at the Committee to Unleash Prosperity.
