Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) released its Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) results on Thursday, offering the closest to a full exit-poll that has been generated in the state so far after the election. Conducted in the last pre-Thanksgiving week of November, the survey spoke to 988 registered voters in Arizona and among other things asked voters specifically, “WHY they voted the way they did.”
The pollsters asked voters to express their reasoning for voting for President-elect Donald Trump versus Vice President Kamala Harris and for Congressman and Senator-elect Ruben Gallego instead of Kari Lake in particular.
The latest AZPOP tells us why voters made their choices. Trump captured a majority of Independents, while the economy topped voter concerns (27%).
Of all concerns that dominated the presidential election, the outlet found, as many polls prior to the election did, that the economy predominated being the most important issue in voters’ decision with 27% of respondents. This was followed by immigration, “Threats to Democracy”, and the “candidate’s background or policy record.”
The economy (27%) was most impactful on voice choice, followed by immigration & threats to democracy. Trump’s GOP made immigration a signature issue. DEMs own the positive & negative aspects of the economy. Translation: The top issues were great for REPs.https://t.co/ztoJQLTfmtpic.twitter.com/idIuThEz4W
“Trump’s GOP has made immigration a signature issue for the party, and Democrats – the party in power – own both the positive and negative aspects of the economy. Translation: The two top issues were great for Republicans.“
Republicans and Independents both were motivated first by the economy and then by immigration, while Democrats were motivated by the perceived “threats to Democracy,” followed by the economy and abortion.
David Byler, NPI Chief of Research explained, “Republican and Democratic candidates ran like they were living in different universes. Democrats cared about abortion and threats to democracy much more than immigration. Republicans saw immigration and the economy as crises caused by the Biden Administration.”
“We saw this same pattern in the pre-election polling. But the election proved that the GOP argument – about the economy, immigration, and dissatisfaction with how Biden governed – won the day.”
The exact same share of Republicans and Independents (31%) said the economy was most important, and immigration came in second place – though immigration was important to more Republicans (24%) than Independents (17%).
The pollster also observed that a potentially fatal flaw in Harris’ campaign was her deep integration within the deliberately named Biden-Harris Administration, which precluded her making a clean-break from an extremely unpopular presidency among Arizona voters.
“As Biden’s VP, most voters (56%) view Harris as an extension of the Biden administration rather than a new politician forging a different path (33%). Arizonans disapproved of Biden’s job performance for most of his tenure as President – which suggests he may have been a liability for the Harris campaign.”
Most voters (56%) view Harris as an extension of the Biden administration. Arizonans disapproved of Biden’s job performance for most of his tenure as President – which suggests he may have been a liability for the Harris campaign.
Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO noted, “Hindsight is 20/20, but this might be one of the biggest mistakes of the 2024 Democratic process for replacing Biden. They chose someone who was part of the Biden Administration, knowing that he had a poor approval rating. Harris could be tied to Biden in a way that almost nobody could.”
Turning to the Senate race, the results took on a different character entirely. Rather than addressing particular issues or positions as they did in the presidential race, the pollsters’ questioning yielded more emotionally driven responses related to Kari Lake’s favorability, thus not offering a similar distinction in the Senate race. The outlet wrote, “This AZPOP asked voters who had an unfavorable view of Lake (53%) WHY they disliked her, and allowed them to select multiple reasons.”
Based on the narrow breadth of the question and its scope being limited to those who voted against Lake, Noble Predictive Insights found a majority of Gallego supporters either did so because she “denied her 2022 loss in the governor race,” because the respondent “did not like her personally,” or because she “imitated Trump without offering new ideas.”
Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Bruce Cohen has chosen to recuse himself from the alternate electors case after reports revealed a series of emails he sent to his colleagues that openly defended Vice President Kamala Harris and urged other jurists to do likewise.
As previously reported by AZ Free News, the controversy that preceded Cohen’s recusal centered around a series of emails in which he demanded that his fellow judges and commissioners stand in defense of then-Democratic Presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris. The Judge offered these emails in response to criticisms levied against Harris that she was a “DEI Hire.” Cohen particularly characterized the issue in racial and gender-based terms calling upon white men in particular to defend Harris, along with any colleagues who identified as “person(s) of color.”
Cohen wrote in part, “It does matter if your chromosomes are made up of ‘XY.’ It matters even more if your skin color is characterized as ‘white’ or Caucasian. We must speak out. We must tell those within our circles of influence that this s**t must stop. NOW! We cannot allow our female colleagues to feel as if they stand alone when there are those who may intimate that their ascension was anything other than based upon exceptionalism. We cannot allow our colleagues who identify as being a ‘person of color’ to stand alone when there are those may claim that their ascension was an ‘equity hire’ rather than based solely upon exceptionalism. We no longer can stay silent merely because others are exercising their right to free speech — we, too, have that same right and must exercise it.”
Attorneys representing Republican state Sen. Jake Hoffman, a defendant alongside several other prominent Republican figures facing charges for their participation in an alternate slate of Electoral College votes during the 2020 Presidential Election, told the Associated Press that Judge Cohen “bears a deep-seated personal political bias that overcame his professional judgment.”
Arizona attorney Mark L. Williams, who represents former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, told the AP, “Given the statements the judge made, I think it’s appropriate that he recuse himself.”
He added, “The way I see it, the case against Mr. Giuliani and the other defendants is falling apart and I think the attorney general should just wind down the case and dismiss it.”
Michael Colombo of Dhillon law group, writing on Hoffman’s behalf in a motion for recusal, explained, “The utter contempt Judge Cohen displayed against President Trump in his Aug. 29 email makes it clear that Senator Hoffman — who is on trial for exercising his First Amendment rights as a supporter of President Trump — cannot receive a fair trial before Judge Cohen.”
Columbo also took aim at Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes writing, “While Judge Cohen is entitled to his political opinions and speech, his rhetoric and exhortation precisely mirrors the evidence of hostile partisan political zealotry at the heart of the motions to dismiss that have been languishing before the Court for months. In short, the evidence before the Court of the Attorney General’s unlawful retaliation against Defendants includes her demonization of Republicans as well as her Chief Deputy comparing Republicans to Nazis and the Defendants in this case to Vladimir Putin.”
He added, “Even if Judge Cohen can somehow separate his apparent detestation of President Trump from his adjudication of a case that centers around defendants’ political activity in support of President Trump, the appearance of impropriety is a stain on this case that cannot be removed.”
Cohen, scheduled to retire in January, defended his actions in the text of his order, and even doubled down claiming, “This judicial officer expressed in an email support for the exceptionalism of the judicial officers of Maricopa County and was a stand for decency and respect. What was contained in the email is not reflective of bias.”
Per Courthouse News, all scheduled hearings are now vacated and the case is on hold pending the assignment of a new judge.
The Arizona Democratic Party (ADP) indicated that top Democratic leaders were to blame for their party’s massive election losses at the state and federal levels.
In a statement from Arizona Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (ADLCC) reposted by ADP, executive director Elsa O’Callaghan said that “down-the-ballot Democrats” in Arizona and across the nation were unable to overcome “top-of-the-ticket” troubles. O’Callaghan didn’t specify what those troubles were or who was behind them.
“We are deeply grateful for the candidates who put their lives on hold and stepped up to run, the staff who gave it their all, and the supporters who donated their time and money to protect Arizona’s future. Final results are now tallied and Arizona’s legislative chambers will remain in Republican control. Across the country, down-ballot Democrats worked tirelessly to combat top-of-the-ticket trends. It is now clear that those trends proved to be insurmountable. Too much is at stake to abandon our mission — especially with an extreme presidential administration coming into power. The work continues.”
🚨 The AZ Dem finger pointing is officially getting started! In a pathetic statement that was reposted by @AZDemParty, @A_DLCC blames the “top of the ticket” for their failures in AZ… but which “top of the ticket” are they referring to? @KamalaForAZ or @KatieHobbs? Or BOTH? pic.twitter.com/YKXsO1Jbsb
Donald Trump won Arizona by over 52 percent of the vote (1.7 million votes), where Kamala Harris gained over 46 percent of the vote (1.5 million votes) — a difference of nearly 187,000 votes among 3.2 million voters. Comparatively, Joe Biden won by .3 percent of the vote back in 2020, a difference of just over 10,400 votes among 3.3 million voters.
Arizona Republicans flipped a net total of three seats in the state legislature: one in the senate and three in the house (and the loss of one other seat). That grew the Republican majority to 17 in the Senate and 33 in the House.
In the Senate, Republicans flipped one seat: LD4, with Republican challenger Carine Werner ousting incumbent Democrat Christine Marsh by 52 percent of the vote (over 5,400 votes).
In the House, Republicans flipped three seats: LD4, with Republicans Pamela Carter and Matt Gress securing both seats; LD13, with Republicans Jeff Weninger and Julie Willoughby securing both seats; LD16, with Republicans Teresa Martinez and Chris Lopez securing both seats.
Democrats flipped one seat in the House: LD17, ousting Republican Cory McGarr for Democrat Kevin Volk while Rachel Jones retained her seat.
Arizona Democrats failed to flip any congressional seats. They also failed to win the hotly-contested District 6 seat held by incumbent Juan Ciscomani.
Democrats did successfully win the open Senate seat left by independent Kyrsten Sinema. Democrat Ruben Gallego emerged victorious over Republican Kari Lake, winning 50 percent of the vote over Lake’s 47 percent.
Although Democrats fell short of securing the Arizona legislature, they did see a certain win with a significant ballot reform.
Arizonans approved a constitutional right to abortion up to birth: 62 percent were in favor (1.9 million voters) versus 38 percent against (1.2 million voters).
However, Arizonans also approved a ballot measure to allow police to arrest illegal immigrants entering the U.S — 63 percent (1.9 million) were in favor, while 37 percent (1.1 million) were against.
AZ Free News is your #1 source for Arizona news and politics. You can send us news tips using this link.
Americans sent a resounding message to the Democrat Party on Tuesday evening, rejecting the pronoun-declaring, virtue signalers whose radical ideas include normalizing humans identifying as animals and men competing in women’s sports.
For years Democrats and their allies in the mainstream media have lectured the American people about morality, inclusivity and the all-importance of identity politics. We have been told that not embracing a far-left radical agenda makes us bigots, racists and misogynists.
Clearly, the American people have had enough.
President-elect Donald Trump won all seven battleground states, captured the popular vote (the first Republican to do so in decades) expanded the map in blue states like California, New York and Virginia, and flipped traditional Democrat counties such as Miami Dade in Florida and Hispanic-heavy Starr County in Texas.
Trump’s message on the economy and immigration and closing the campaign with messages like, “It doesn’t have to be this way,” and “Trump will fix it,” given that nearly 75% of Americans believed the nation was on the wrong track, resonated with voters across the board.
Trump won married women by a large margin (so much for the gender gap), along with married men (e.g. parents). He also won suburban voters, Catholics, Protestants, those making $50,000 or less, those with no college degrees, Gen X (between the ages of 45-64), and first-time voters.
Trump also improved with non-traditional Republican voters including urban voters, Latinos and black men.
Simply put: Trump won the majority of America. He won suburban parents who want good schools and safe communities for their children. He won the hardworking folks in rural areas with no college degrees. He improved with young people who want to buy their first home but can’t afford to thanks to inflation.
The effects of Trump and the complete repudiation of the Democrat agenda happened down the ballot as well. Republicans now control the Senate with significant victories by Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania, Tim Sheehy in Montana and Bernie Moreno in Ohio.
The House remains in play, and it is possible that the GOP enters Washington next January with the trifecta: White House, Senate and House of Representatives.
Meanwhile, the Democrat Party, once the party of the working class, has now become the party of out-of-touch elitists.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) put it this way: “It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working class people would find that the working class has abandoned them.”
Vice President Kamala Harris’ success was limited to high income voters (those making $100,000 or more and those making $200,000 or more), those with bachelor’s or advanced degrees, and those who have no religious affiliation.
In other words, Harris’ coalition consisted of a bunch of rich snobs or “smarty pants,” to quote longtime Democrat strategist David Axelrod.
Many Democrat strategists will say the loss was because Harris’ $1 billion war chest was unwisely spent. They will blame bad messaging, and a heavy focus on the abortion issue instead of the economy. They will say they had a bad candidate, or there wasn’t enough time to run a full campaign (which would be ironic, given it was the Democrat machine that installed Harris at the last minute).
But the rot runs much deeper. For the betterment of the nation, Democrats would do well to use this time for introspection and re-evaluating their principles.
Republicans had to undergo a restructuring following former President Barack Obama’s back-to-back victories in 2008 and 2012. Now, it’s the Democrats’ turn to do some self-reflecting. Until they do, Republicans will enjoy majorities in Washington and in state governments, winning races up and down the ballot for years to come.
But we live in a two-party system – for now. If one of our major parties continues to cater to radicals while isolating the majority of Americans, yes, it is a recipe for their side to continue to lose elections, but it is also bad news for the country. America is better off when both Republicans and Democrats operate in common sense and challenge each other on the best economic policy or how to solve the immigration crisis.
Doubling down and ignoring the will of the people will extinguish the Democrat Party for good.
Carly Atchison Bird is a contributor to The Daily Caller News Foundation and the former national spokeswoman for the Ron DeSantis presidential campaign. She is the founder and president of Bird’s Eye Consulting and lives in Virginia Beach.
A few days before last week’s election, Independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders issued a dire warning to voters. If Trump won, “the struggle against climate change will be over.”
He had that right.
Climate change fanaticism was effectively on the ballot last week. That green energy agenda was decisively defeated.
It turns out the tens of millions of middle-class Americans who voted for Trump weren’t much interested in the temperature of the planet 50 years from now. They were too busy trying to pay the bills.
The result shouldn’t be too surprising. Polls have shown climate change ranks near the bottom of voters’ concerns. Jobs, inflation and illegal immigration register much higher on the scale of concerns.
But if you asked the elite of America in the top one percent of income, climate change is seen as an immediate and existential threat to the planet. Our poll at Unleash Prosperity earlier this year found that the cultural elites were so hyper-obsessed with climate issues, they were in favor of banning air conditioning, nonessential air travel and many modern home appliances to stop global warming. Our study showed that not many of the other 99 percent agree.
Wake up, Bernie and Al Gore.
Climate change has become the ultimate luxury good: the richer you are, the more you fret about it.
Among the elite, obsessing about climate change has become a favorite form of virtue-signaling at the country club and in the faculty lounges. There is almost no cross that the green elites — the people who donate six figures or more to groups like the Sierra Club — aren’t willing to make lower income Americans bear to stop global warming.
Herein lies the political curse of the climate issue. A millionaire doesn’t care much if the price of gas rises by $1 a gallon or if they have to pay another $100 a month in utility bills. But the middle class hates paying more.
It wasn’t just economic concerns that turned the voters against climate crusaders like President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. Workers weren’t too thrilled with the heavy fist of government commanding them to buy an electric vehicle — whether they wanted one or not.
It hasn’t helped the greens’ cause that the same progressives who are out to save the planet with grandiose transformations and global government, seem to have no problem with the garbage polluting the streets of our major cities or the graffiti or the feces and urine smell on the street corners of San Francisco and New York. That’s real pollution. And it’s affecting us here and now.
The good news is this year’s voter revolts against the radical green agenda are not a vote for dirtier air or water. The air that we breathe and the water we drink is cleaner than ever — a point that President Donald Trump correctly made. We will continue to make progress against pollution.
To try to sell middle America on the climate-change agenda of abolishing fossil fuels, the greens peddled bogus arguments that climate change would hurt poor communities most. In reality the financial costs of the climate policies and the paychecks lost were felt by the non-elite.
Democrats forgot to visit the steel-mill construction sites or the auto plants or the oil patch and ask those workers what they thought.
Well, now we know the reality. Americans think their shrinking paychecks and the higher price of gas they pay at the pump is the real clear-and-present danger. If Democrats don’t start to get that, they too will go to bed worrying about their jobs.
Stephen Moore is a contributor to The Daily Caller News Foundation, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation, and a co-founder of Unleash Prosperity. His latest book is titled: “The Trump Economic Miracle.”
