According to the newly released 2025 Retail Returns Landscape, U.S. retailers project that nearly $850 billion in merchandise will be returned this year, equivalent to 15.8% of total sales.
The figure, while substantial, reflects a slight decline from last year’s 16.9% return rate and $890 billion in total returns.
“Returns are no longer the end point of a transaction,” said NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen. “They provide an opportunity for retailers to create a positive experience for customers and can translate to brand loyalty. Retailers are constantly evolving and working to meet customer expectations, and they recognize the importance the returns process plays.”
While overall return rates remain steady, online sales continue to drive higher volumes, with an estimated 19.3% of e-commerce purchases expected to be returned in 2025.
Generational shifts are amplifying these trends, particularly among Gen Z shoppers (age 18-30) who averaged 7.7 online returns over the past 12 months, more than any age group.
Consumer demands for seamless returns are intensifying as 82% of shoppers now cite free returns as a major factor in their purchasing decisions, up from 76% last year. Additionally, 76% of shoppers are more likely to choose the return method offering instant refunds or exchanges.
However, a negative returns experience carries significant consequences: 71% of consumers report they are less likely to shop with a retailer again following a poor encounter, rising from 67% in 2024. Four out of five consumers say they are likely to share their bad experience with friends and family, potentially magnifying reputational damage.
Retailers are navigating these expectations while contending with escalating operational costs and external pressures. Surveyed merchants identified increasing online sales and reducing return rates as their top priorities in 2026.
Key drivers for charging return fees include:
Processing costs (40%)
Higher carrier shipping expense (40%)
Economic uncertainty tied to tariffs (33%)
Return fraud remains another persistent challenge, accounting for 9% of all returns. Among retailers tracking fraud, 71% reported an increase in overstated return quantities, 65% noted “empty box” or “box of rocks” incidents, and 64% saw rises in decoy returns involving counterfeit items. To combat return fraud, 85% of retailers have begun to use AI to detect or prevent fraud from happening.
Notably, 45% of consumers—particularly when dissatisfied— believe that “bending the truth” is acceptable during a return.
David Sobie, co-founder and CEO of Happy Returns, said, “Return policies and their overall process have transformed into a strategic touchpoint for retailers, influencing how younger consumers shop from the outset. To stay competitive amid rising return rates and behaviors like bracketing, retailers must modernize their reverse logistics to enhance customer satisfaction, reduce fraud, and safeguard their operations in today’s high-pressure retail landscape.”
Looking into the holiday season, retailers anticipate 17% of holiday sales will be returned, consistent with prior years. To manage this surge, 49% plan to lean on third-party logistics partners, 43% will hire seasonal staff, and 37% intend to extend return windows.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
A new study released by the ASU Center for an Independent and Sustainable Democracy found that while Generation Z voters have become frustrated with the current state of American politics, there is still major motivation to participate in the 2024 election.
The survey, published by Noble Predictive Insights, polled Arizona registered voters from 20-30 years old and showed that 66% of them say they will “definitely” participate in the 2024 election but are wildly dissatisfied with the political parties as they exist today. 80% said they feel that the major political parties are “out of touch” with their generation and that there should be more choices on the ballot.
According to the poll, several conclusions stood out. Notably, the cohort predominantly identifies as independent with 49% of them eschewing membership in either major party.
The pollsters added, “they are profoundly frustrated with the political world that has been handed down to them. Only 20 percent of this group feels that the current political system works for their generation and 80 percent feel that both the Democratic and Republican parties are out of touch with people their age. Well over half feel that all politicians are corrupt.”
Thom Reilly, professor and co-director for ASU CISD explained, “Arizona’s Gen Z voters are sending a clear message that they are dissatisfied with the political status quo. They’re rejecting traditional party affiliations in favor of a more independent stance. Still, they haven’t given up on the democratic process. They are looking for alternatives and believe in their power to affect change through voting.”
Our recent survey of 1315 registered Gen Z voters: 2 out of 3 in Arizona say they will vote in November; 4 in 5 say the 2 major parties don’t represent them ; 49% are registered as independent ; top issues: economics , abortion, fair and secure elections https://t.co/ecsdYzVIKl
The poll indicated that by far the most pressing concerns of the Generation Z voters are economically and resource driven with the cost of living, affordable housing, and the protection of the water supply as most important, followed by healthcare, free and fair elections, jobs, and abortion.
Co-director Jacqueline Salit added, “Understanding these priorities is crucial for any candidate or party hoping to engage with Gen Z voters. These young Arizonans are deeply concerned about their economic futures, but they’re also engaged with broader social issues like healthcare access, election integrity, and reproductive rights.”
Clean Elections Executive Director Tom Collins told ASU News, “Understanding how Gen Z voters see our electoral system is particularly important for outreach to build and sustain democratic principles.”
Conversely, lowest on the agenda for Generation Z voters according to the survey are the potential ban of Tiktok, the U.S. role in the Russo-Ukrainian war, student loan debt, and LGBTQ+ rights.
Noble Predictive Insights found that the broad issue revealed by the poll is political disengagement in addition to a general dissatisfaction with the existing political status quo. Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO noted, “Young voters are giving us a clear message: ‘Show me that you care about what I care about.’ The data from this survey can act as a roadmap for political campaigns and civic organizations to motivate young voters.”
He added, ”What we’re seeing is a generation that’s rejecting political labels and traditional party loyalties. They’re independent-minded, issue-focused, and deeply committed to their principles. Any candidate or party that hopes to succeed with these voters will need to speak to their unique concerns and values and engage with them on the digital platforms where they’re getting and communicating information and opinions.”
