by Daniel Stefanski | Dec 16, 2024 | News
By Daniel Stefanski |
Arizonans appear to be in a slightly better mood following the results of the 2024 General Election.
This past week, Noble Predictive Insights released the results of a recent survey in Arizona, showing “voters expressing a mix of hope and ongoing concerns about key state issues.”
Forty-four percent of respondents indicated that Arizona was on the “right track,” while fifty-six percent believed that their state was moving in the “wrong direction.”
Although those numbers show Arizona has much work to do to flip the outlook of its direction among voters, the numbers were improved from the last survey in August, when sixty percent of respondents thought their state was headed ‘south’ compared to forty percent who indicated that their state was tracking “northward.”
The survey – the Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) – took place between November 20-25 – approximately two weeks after the election.
“Republicans are optimistic and energized after Trump’s win while Democrats are discouraged – Gallego’s win was a victory for Democrats, but it wasn’t enough to improve their outlook,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “But Arizona voters are pragmatic. They know that there is still work to be done in the state, and there is fertile ground for positive change – if leaders can rise to the occasion.”
The shift in the numbers comes largely courtesy of the two major political parties responding to the results of the election in November. From August to November, Republicans who believed that the state was headed in the right direction increased by twenty-two percent, while Democrats who thought Arizona was tracking in the wrong direction grew by seventeen percent.
While Republicans and Democrats had largely diametric reactions in the aftermath of the election, Independents were much more cautious in their opinions. From August to November, Independents’ optimism grew by three percent, while their pessimism decreased by three percent, according to the AZPOP.
Arizona Republicans are still reveling in many of their election victories from last month – chief among those being the overwhelming performance from President-elect Donald J. Trump in the Grand Canyon State, as he captured the state’s eleven electoral votes on his way to a commanding lead in the Electoral College over Democrat Kamala Harris. Republicans also expanded their narrow majorities in the state House and Senate, increased and retained control of key Maricopa County positions, swept the Arizona Corporation Commission races, and managed to pass a handful of ballot propositions, including one on border security to give local communities more resources and tools to better protect citizens.
Daniel Stefanski is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
by Matthew Holloway | Dec 12, 2024 | News
By Matthew Holloway |
Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) released its Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) results on Thursday, offering the closest to a full exit-poll that has been generated in the state so far after the election. Conducted in the last pre-Thanksgiving week of November, the survey spoke to 988 registered voters in Arizona and among other things asked voters specifically, “WHY they voted the way they did.”
The pollsters asked voters to express their reasoning for voting for President-elect Donald Trump versus Vice President Kamala Harris and for Congressman and Senator-elect Ruben Gallego instead of Kari Lake in particular.
Of all concerns that dominated the presidential election, the outlet found, as many polls prior to the election did, that the economy predominated being the most important issue in voters’ decision with 27% of respondents. This was followed by immigration, “Threats to Democracy”, and the “candidate’s background or policy record.”
The pollster’s noted:
“Trump’s GOP has made immigration a signature issue for the party, and Democrats – the party in power – own both the positive and negative aspects of the economy. Translation: The two top issues were great for Republicans.“
Republicans and Independents both were motivated first by the economy and then by immigration, while Democrats were motivated by the perceived “threats to Democracy,” followed by the economy and abortion.
David Byler, NPI Chief of Research explained, “Republican and Democratic candidates ran like they were living in different universes. Democrats cared about abortion and threats to democracy much more than immigration. Republicans saw immigration and the economy as crises caused by the Biden Administration.”
“We saw this same pattern in the pre-election polling. But the election proved that the GOP argument – about the economy, immigration, and dissatisfaction with how Biden governed – won the day.”
The pollster also observed that a potentially fatal flaw in Harris’ campaign was her deep integration within the deliberately named Biden-Harris Administration, which precluded her making a clean-break from an extremely unpopular presidency among Arizona voters.
“As Biden’s VP, most voters (56%) view Harris as an extension of the Biden administration rather than a new politician forging a different path (33%). Arizonans disapproved of Biden’s job performance for most of his tenure as President – which suggests he may have been a liability for the Harris campaign.”
Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO noted, “Hindsight is 20/20, but this might be one of the biggest mistakes of the 2024 Democratic process for replacing Biden. They chose someone who was part of the Biden Administration, knowing that he had a poor approval rating. Harris could be tied to Biden in a way that almost nobody could.”
Turning to the Senate race, the results took on a different character entirely. Rather than addressing particular issues or positions as they did in the presidential race, the pollsters’ questioning yielded more emotionally driven responses related to Kari Lake’s favorability, thus not offering a similar distinction in the Senate race. The outlet wrote, “This AZPOP asked voters who had an unfavorable view of Lake (53%) WHY they disliked her, and allowed them to select multiple reasons.”
Based on the narrow breadth of the question and its scope being limited to those who voted against Lake, Noble Predictive Insights found a majority of Gallego supporters either did so because she “denied her 2022 loss in the governor race,” because the respondent “did not like her personally,” or because she “imitated Trump without offering new ideas.”
Matthew Holloway is a senior reporter for AZ Free News. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@azfreenews.com.
