The prediction markets say Katie Hobbs is a heavy favorite. The pundits agree. I’ve heard long odds before — I heard them in combat, and I heard them in January when I ran for Party Chair. Here’s what the gamblers and pundits are missing.
This election comes down to one thing: who shows up. And I like our side of that math.
Republicans are the largest voting bloc in Arizona — 1.54 million strong, per the Secretary of State, a 321,000-voter lead over the Democrats. That lead has grown by more than 170,000 voters since 2022: we’ve added nearly 110,000 registrants while Democrats have lost more than 60,000. Their own DNC chair admits Democrats have “been getting our butts kicked” on registration — his words — shedding 2.1 million voters nationwide from 2020 to 2024. He’s right.
Republicans are the most reliable midterm voters in this state — we show up, every cycle, like clockwork. Independents don’t, not in midterms, and 2026 has no presidential race and no Senate race. Governor is the top of the ballot. Hobbs’s entire polling lead is parked with the voters least likely to vote. Ours is built on the voters most likely to show. Monster Republican turnout, uninspiring veto queen, low-turnout independent voters — and her lead evaporates.
And this time, no one has to guess whether their vote counts. The days of Republicans sitting home because they don’t trust the process are over. The RNC and AZGOP already have boots on the ground — Arizona is a priority state in the RNC’s multimillion-dollar election integrity operation, with a state director in place and thousands of trained poll workers, poll watchers, and observers being recruited right now. Eyes and ears on every vote cast and every vote counted. And because we’ve learned the Left doesn’t just campaign — they litigate — our attorneys are on offense: the RNC’s legal team is waging more than 130 election integrity lawsuits across the country, including here at home, where we’ve gone to court to defend Arizona’s early-ballot list maintenance laws and hold Secretary Fontes accountable. Leftist lawfare doesn’t get a free shot at this election. Not on my watch.
Trust the process, bank your ballot early, bring your neighbor. That’s the whole playbook.
Meanwhile, look at the incumbent. Hobbs’s disapproval has climbed to 43% and rising. Most Arizonans have never once said the state is on the right track under her. She squeaked by in 2022 by 17,117 votes. And she’ll spend this fall dodging questions about four separate pay-to-play inquiries — including a criminal probe by her own Party’s attorney general, whose investigators have asked to interview her as they close out a two-year investigation. Hobbs is uncomfortable talking about it. She’s nervous. She vetoed transparency legislation. Twice. Arizonans notice.
Andy Biggs doesn’t have her problems. He has a united party standing fully behind its nominee, the biggest voter bloc in Arizona, and a turnout machine that’s already running.
The gambling markets say Katie Hobbs. I’m the chairman of 1.5 million people who’d like to say otherwise. A lot of people are about to learn that they shouldn’t gamble against Arizona voters.
Sergio Arellano serves as Chairman of the Arizona Republican Party.
The head of the Arizona Republican Party is predicting that Attorney General Kris Mayes will face an investigation of her own for her alleged lack of investigation into Gov. Katie Hobbs.
Sergio Arellano stated in an interview with the “Conservative Circus” on Monday that Arizona Democrats should be “terrified” over the continued inquiries into Mayes.
“Kris Mayes didn’t just make Sunshine Residential Homes disappear; she may have just moved the spotlight directly onto herself,” said Arellano.
The Arizona Republican Party issued a statement accusing Hobbs of leading a “culture of corruption,” and endorsing the Republican nominee for governor, Rep. Andy Biggs (AZ-05).
Arizonans deserve better than Katie Hobbs’s Culture of Corruption.
Arellano also urged Republicans to issue the transcripts from their investigation into Mayes and Hobbs.
More than two years after launching an investigation based on media reports connecting Hobbs with an unusual rate increase for one of her major donors, Mayes released a short memorandum clearing Hobbs of pay-to-play corruption.
Sunshine Residential Homes, a major group home operator in the state, and its CEO, Simon Kottoor, are among the top donors to Hobbs’ campaign, legal fund, and inaugural fund. The company received substantial rate increases in 2023 and 2024 following years of denials before Hobbs took office.
The most recent denial occurred a month after Hobbs was sworn in. Several months later, following a dinner attended by Hobbs and her campaign chief at Kottoor’s residence, Sunshine Residential Homes received the rate increase it had sought — while other group home operators were denied increases or had their contracts cut entirely.
Mayes’ seven-page memorandum clearing Hobbs was criticized across the board not only for its length but for it allegedly revealing oversights concerning apparent evidence that some corruption had occurred.
Mayes maintained that the scope of her investigation was thorough; it included more than 100,000 documents. The attorney general suggested that the legislature was to blame for the perceived pay-to-play issues, and advocated for improved transparency laws.
Earlier this summer, Hobbs vetoed the sort of legislation Mayes suggested to ensure greater transparency. Hobbs claimed that because the legislation would also bring transparency to the Sunshine Residential Homes debacle, it was a “political stunt.”
Most recently, House Speaker Steve Montenegro (R-LD29) sent Mayes a letter demanding she provide answers to five questions indicating key contradictions and omissions in her investigation. Montenegro cited evidence from Department of Child Safety employee testimonies and contracting requirements as support for the scope of questioning.
“The Memorandum suggests your Office failed to pursue critical issues and reached conclusions that directly conflict with reliable evidence — including information provided by the very witnesses your Office claims to have interviewed,” said Montenegro. “Those failures raise the specter that your Memorandum was intended to influence the November election by attempting to inoculate the Governor from a perceived political vulnerability.”
Montenegro gave Mayes until Friday, September 4, to answer.
Senate President Warren Petersen (R-LD14) — who is the Republican nominee for attorney general — has also called on Mayes to release the records that informed her decision to clear Hobbs of wrongdoing. Petersen called Mayes’ memorandum a “cliffs notes report” that withheld critical information from the public.
An Arizona House special advisory team and the Maricopa County Attorney’s Office are still investigating the pay-to-play allegations against Hobbs, despite an initial order from Mayes to stand down as her office conducted its investigation.
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Republican nominee for attorney general Warren Petersen is calling on Attorney General Kris Mayes to be more transparent about her decision to dismiss the pay-to-play investigation into Gov. Katie Hobbs.
Petersen said in a statement that Mayes has a duty to release all interview and deposition transcripts, referring to the seven-page analysis released earlier this week as a “cliffs notes report” lacking key information beneficial to the public.
“If Mayes is confident in the integrity of her investigation, she should have no problem allowing Arizonans to judge for themselves,” said Petersen. “Release the files.”
Mayes opened up her investigation into Hobbs more than two years ago based on allegations that the governor had engaged in pay-to-play with Sunshine Residential Homes, a group home operator that served as a major donor to Hobbs’ inauguration fund, her secret legal fund, and the Arizona Democratic Party.
A timeline of events and donations first put together in a June 2024 report by the Arizona Republic indicated that Hobbs had used her authority to ensure Sunshine Residential Homes got the rate increase it had sought and initially failed to secure.
Although Republican elected officials positioned themselves as the first to take investigatory action, Mayes called for them to stand down and announced she would take on the investigation. Maricopa County Attorney Rachel Mitchell and Auditor General Lindsey Perry were told that their investigatory efforts would be “[in]appropriate” that would potentially “jeopardize the integrity” of the investigation into Hobbs.
However, both Mitchell and Perry have continued their independent investigatory efforts. Erin Pellett, a spokesperson for Mitchell, was unable to provide an estimated end date for their investigation.
An advisory team formed specially within the Arizona House for the purpose of investigating the pay-to-play allegations also obtained outside counsel earlier this year and launched their own investigation into the matter. That team also has not published its findings.
And then last week — a little more than two years after Mayes announced her investigation, and several days after Hobbs made clear in a letter from lawyers that she wouldn’t do an in-person interview with Mayes — Mayes published a seven-page memorandum clearing Hobbs of any wrongdoing.
The attorney general declared that her investigation of more than 100,000 records, including the records of 12 interviews with others close to the matter, had failed to uncover evidence of bribery.
Some felt the investigation fell improperly short in its scope. Mayes had been asking Hobbs to sit for questioning for months, but never secured that interview. The language of the report also indicated that modes of communication outside of official state channels weren’t investigated.
Arizona Republican Party Chair Sergio Arellano toldThe Center Square that Hobbs had lied about sitting for an interview, and that Mayes had shielded Hobbs from taking accountability on her lack of transparency.
“For months, Hobbs looked Arizonans in the eye and claimed she was ‘in touch’ with the [attorney general’s] office. That was a straight-up lie. She explicitly refused to sit for an interview,” said Arellano. “This is the Arizona Democratic Socialist playbook, plain as day: Delay, deny, delete the evidence, and declare ‘no quid pro quo’ when the political calendar gets tight.”
Petersen similarly accused Mayes of protecting Hobbs.
“Kris Mayes made a calculated decision to protect her political ally, Katie Hobbs, in the now-infamous pay-to-play scandal,” said Petersen. “After dragging the investigation out for two years, Mayes buried her announcement on a Friday afternoon, knowing the weekend would temper questions about the integrity of her investigation. Arizonans deserve transparency and truth about what happened with the Hobbs’ [sic] Administration and Sunshine Residential.”
I'm calling on Kris Mayes to release all transcripts for any interviews and depositions from the pay-to-play scandal. She needs to be transparent and share the evidence with the public. Her cliff notes report is missing important information that everyone deserves to hear… pic.twitter.com/wXvCoRB8sx
A federal judge denied a request on Tuesday from two healthcare nonprofits seeking to block Phoenix from enforcing restrictions on food distribution and medical treatment in city parks. The court found that the organizations had not shown a likelihood of success on their argument that the activities constitute expressive conduct under the First Amendment.
U.S. District Judge Diane J. Humetewa denied the preliminary-injunction motion filed by Circle the City and Valle del Sol Community Health. Humetewa also canceled a hearing that had been scheduled for Wednesday.
“The Court disagrees that Plaintiffs’ provision of medical care or food to the unhoused is inherently expressive conduct under the First Amendment,” Humetewa wrote.
The order leaves Phoenix’s Medical Treatment and Food Distribution in Parks Ordinance enforceable against the two organizations while their underlying lawsuit continues. The organizations filed the case, Circle the City et al. v. City of Phoenix et al., in the U.S. District Court for the District of Arizona on June 15 and submitted their motion for preliminary injunction the following day.
Circle the City provides street medicine and other healthcare services to homeless residents, while Valle del Sol operates harm-reduction programs that include syringe services. Their lawsuit argues that the ordinance violates the First Amendment by restricting charitable food distribution and medical care while exempting other activities involving food or medical assistance.
The plaintiffs also contend that the city’s permit system operates as an unconstitutional prior restraint and that Arizona law authorizing harm-reduction programs preempts the ordinance’s restrictions on syringe services.
Humetewa found that the nonprofits had not demonstrated that observers would understand their provision of food and medical care as communicating their stated message that every person deserves dignity and access to basic services. Humetewa cited the absence of signs, literature, or other accompanying communications in the record.
Humetewa also wrote that the First Amendment gives governments greater latitude to regulate conduct than spoken or written expression.
Attorney Will Knight of the National Homelessness Law Center said the plaintiffs were disappointed with the ruling and were reviewing their legal options. Phoenix declined to comment on the decision, citing the pending litigation.
The Phoenix City Council approved the ordinance on May 6, and it took effect on June 7. Individuals and organizations must obtain a Parks Services Permit before conducting charitable food distributions or providing covered medical treatment in a city park.
Phoenix will issue no more than two per eligible park each month. The ordinance requires covered medical services to be provided under the supervision of a licensed professional inside an enclosed tent or mobile medical vehicle located on a parking lot or other approved hardscape area.
The ordinance also prohibits the sale, distribution, or exchange of syringes or needles, needle-exchange programs, and the distribution of needle or intramuscular naloxone in city parks. Violations constitute a Class 1 misdemeanor.
The ordinance contains exemptions, including those for first responders, assistance provided during emergencies, aid given to family members, water and electrolyte distribution, educational outreach, and private gatherings where food is served to participants.
Phoenix says the framework is intended to keep parks clean, safe, and accessible while connecting homeless residents with established service providers. The city encourages residents to support organizations participating in its Healthy Giving program.
The Humetewa ruling follows a different result in a parallel challenge brought by St. Herman’s Table, an Orthodox Christian ministry that distributes meals to homeless residents at Cave Creek Park.
U.S. District Judge Krissa Lanham granted St. Herman’s Table and its founder, Lance Brace, a temporary restraining order on June 10, finding that they were likely to succeed on their First Amendment Free Exercise claim. Lanham extended the order on June 16 until she rules on their preliminary injunction motion.
The temporary order prohibits Phoenix from enforcing the ordinance against St. Herman’s Table and Brace. It does not apply to other organizations.
AZ Free News reported in June that St. Herman’s Table distributes meals, water, Bibles, and hygiene supplies each week as part of its religious ministry.
The ordinance and Phoenix’s handling of homelessness have also drawn political criticism. In May, Arizona Republican Party Chairman Sergio Arellano joined radio host James T. Harris during a visit to the downtown area known as “The Zone.”
Arellano criticized city leadership and praised an unidentified faith-based nonprofit that the Arizona Republican Party said received no taxpayer funding. Harris regularly conducts homeless outreach through The Bridge for Community Services, where he serves as corporate vice president and executive director. The party’s post did not identify the organization accompanying Harris, and The Bridge is not a party to either federal lawsuit.
Humetewa’s ruling addresses the request for immediate relief filed by Circle the City and Valle del Sol. Their broader challenge to the ordinance remains pending before the federal court.
Republicans from across Arizona gathered on Friday to celebrate the grand opening of the Arizona Republican Party’s new headquarters. During the celebration, party leaders emphasized unity and looked ahead to the 2026 general election.
The new headquarters is located at 4531 N. 16th st., Suite 114, in Phoenix.
Despite Friday’s record-breaking heat, the event drew an over-capacity crowd, where attendees welcomed the Republican Party’s newly nominated statewide candidates following the primary election.
Arizona Republican Party Chairman Sergio Arellano opened the celebration alongside Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters, Arizona House Speaker Steve Montenegro, Republican gubernatorial nominee Congressman Andy Biggs, Republican Attorney General nominee Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen, and conservative radio host James T. Harris.
Both Biggs and Petersen received great support from attendees after securing their respective Republican nominations earlier in the week.
“It is very clear by today’s turnout that Republicans understand how important this election is and the only way we win is with a united front,” stated Chairman Arellano. “Governor Hobbs has been a disaster. From awarding government contracts to cronies, to appointing unqualified individuals to lead various state agencies, she has made a mess of things. We know that we must get Andy Biggs elected before it’s too late for Arizona and we become California.”
Arellano also contrasted the Arizona Republican Party’s approach to the primary election with what he described as divisions among Democrats, arguing that party leadership intentionally remained neutral throughout the nomination process.
“Primaries can take a toll and often fray relationships and create distrust among party members like the schism the DCCC created this cycle in Congressional District 1 with their cockeyed endorsement of losing candidate Marlene Galan-Woods,” added Arellano. “However, we didn’t play that way. I was determined that the Party would not put its thumb on the scale for one of our candidates or another. As a result, there is a real sense of unity – of trust.”
.@SurgeShow is doing great! Really got the party in a good shape in record time ❤
— Merissa Caldwell 🗳 ⛽ 🗽🔥 (@MerissaCaldwell) July 25, 2026
With the primary election concluded, party leaders used the event to rally supporters and signal the beginning of the Republican Party’s statewide general election campaign, emphasizing party unity as candidates prepare to challenge Democratic incumbents in November.
Ethan Faverino is a reporter for AZ Free News. You can send him news tips using this link.
