Arizona’s forecasted budget surplus of $1.5 to $2 billion means a lot of potential massaging of the $12.8 billion budget spending plan released Monday after months in negotiations with Gov. Doug Ducey.
The surplus also means legislators will be more likely to flex their muscle in hopes of ensuring their constituents and pet projects are covered in the budget, with encouragement from Sen. TJ Shope (R-LD8), who said last week there is “plenty of money if we need to buy people off” to secure votes.
On Monday, Sen. Michelle Ugenti-Rita (R-LD23) tweeted an apparently rhetorical question about the budget plan.
“Instead of having a clean tax cut bill members could vote on, Senate leadership added to the tax bill an increase in unemployment insurance benefits, a 10 year extension of the Angel tax credit (which doesn’t expire for 3 yrs) and a $180M tax credit for low income housing. Why?” she tweeted.
Ugenti-Rita also expressed frustration Monday that some items have been included in various budget bills despite the fact the issue was previously voted down by the legislature. One such example is a storage fee increase for impounded vehicles.
“Funny thing is, a bill with this provision in it died in the Senate the other week,” she tweeted. “Wonder how many more dead bills have been resurrected in the budget..?” She also called out a “level of excessive spending” she cannot support as a fiscal conservative.
Members of the Senate Appropriations Committee will convene at 9 a.m. Tuesday, while their House counterparts are set to meet at 8 a.m. In a strategic move, Senate President Karen Fann appointed Senate Majority Leader Rick Gray (R-LD21) to Appropriations in an effort to blunt any committee opposition from Ugenti-Rita.
As to Shope, he made it known weeks ago his support for the budget would be contingent on funds to widen a dangerous section of Interstate 10 between Casa Grande and Chandler. The result was $50 million earmarked in the budget for Shope’s project.
But while Shope received what he wanted, it is unclear whether Republicans such as Sen. Paul Boyer and Rep. David Cook will have their demands sufficiently met to ensure their budget votes. Boyer (R-LD20) outlined his budget priorities last week, including concerns about Arizona’s debt, Rainy Day Fund, and insufficient funding for the state’s universities.
Cook (R-LD8) is unhappy Ducey and the legislative budget team included the increase in unemployment benefits, although whether the increase ever kicks in next year is contingent on several economic thresholds. While on the House side, Rep. Jake Hoffman (R-LD12) is leading the charge to increase the state’s spending on elections by cutting millions from other projects, including a boost in salary for state employees.
Sen. J.D. Mesnard, a Republican for LD17, has been involved in the budget process, and cautioned his fellow legislators that “a million dollars here or there” of new expenditures “adds up.” Which can put other budget features at risk, including a much-touted plan to transition Arizona to a flat-tax method for income tax.
Republicans only have a two vote majority in each chamber, giving each of the 16 Senators and 31 Representatives within the Republican caucus some leverage in budget negotiations. Normally there may be enough Democrat-friendly priorities built into the budget bills to persuade one or two to cross the aisle, but the size of proposed tax cuts -currently at $3 billion over the next three years- could slam that door shut.
The U.S. Department of Interior has given its approval to the amended tribal-state gaming compact, finalizing an agreement to modernize gaming in Arizona that was signed in April by Governor Doug Ducey and the state’s tribal leaders.
“Gaming creates thousands of jobs for Arizonans, it generates tax revenue that benefits key areas of our communities, and it draws visitors to our state,” said Governor Ducey. “The tribal-state gaming compact amendment, along with its associated legislation, was the culmination of a multi-year process and I was proud to work with all the stakeholders on this historic accomplishment.”
On April 15, Governor Ducey joined state lawmakers and tribal leaders to sign House Bill 2772, and the amended tribal-state gaming compact. The legislation is part of a compromise that was negotiated in the amended gaming compact, which underwent the most significant modernization in almost two decades.
The compact amendment and the associated legislation took more than five years to negotiate, and it ensures gaming in Arizona remains limited and regulated while providing certainty for the future of the state and tribes.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is providing tips to employers in an effort to use the fact that businesses in many communities are often seen as “trusted sources of information” who can persuade employees and customers to receive the COVID-19 vaccine.
“This is especially important right now given the state of the pandemic and the hesitation some people have about receiving one of the approved COVID-19 vaccines,” according to the chamber’s website. “Vaccination is a personal decision, so it’s logical that when employers show a personal willingness to be vaccinated, they are more likely to increase the willingness of their employees—across all demographic groups – to follow their lead and get the shot.”
The website also provides links for employers on how to talk to employees about getting vaccinated, and provides information on business-sponsored “get vaccinated” events.
Through its website, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation has highlighted the efforts of dozens of national employers who promote vaccine events and are encouraging vaccinations for their employees. The foundation is also sponsoring free events for employers, business owners, and community leaders.
On May 27, the Chamber is sponsoring a free broadcast with CDC Director Rochelle Walensky about the current state of the pandemic, where things stand with vaccination efforts, what to expect short term, and what businesses should do to prepare for the next phase.
Questions remain in the aftermath of the U.S. Census Bureau’s release last month of the 2020 Decennial Census which put Arizona’s official population at nearly 7.16 million.
That figure, up more than 746,000 from a decade earlier, represented the eighth largest increase by number and the ninth fast growth rate in the country. But census officials determined it was not enough to earn Arizona its 10th seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.
There was much finger pointing at the time of the announcement that Arizona’s population fell 250,000 short of estimates even though Gov. Doug Ducey’s AZ Census 2020 Taskforce reported that census enumerators and volunteers attempted to reach 99.9 percent of all households in the state despite COVID-19 lockdowns and social distancing challenges.
But according to a theory by a former official who served in the Trump Administration’s Commerce Department, the reason some states ended up with unexpected results might have more to do with how the Census Bureau calculates the number of people who live in known households that did not fill out a census questionnaire.
Adam Korzeniewski is a Marine Corps combat veteran who specializes in fiscal and economic policy as well as national security topics. In an article published earlier this month in The American Mind, he cites the Census Bureau’s reliance on estimates as cause for concern for some states, including Arizona.
Federal law does not allow the Secretary of Commerce to rely on statistical sampling to fill in the blanks for households that do not respond to the census. But other methods are allowed, and Korzeniewski believes some of those need to be questioned.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, demographic characteristics about the people who live in every verified residence is necessary to obtain “a complete and accurate census. Unfortunately, not all households respond to the census questionnaire. When that happens, a census taker first turns to administrative records from the IRS and other government agencies to fill in the blanks about who likely lives in that household.
If a reliable administrative record is not available and the local census taker is unable to contact the household after three visits, information can be obtained from a neighbor, landlord or building manager. This is referred to as a proxy response.
The last method the Census Bureau uses is imputation, a statistical technique officials say makes the overall dataset “more accurate than leaving the gaps blank” by using what data is known to filling in what data is not known.
“We recognize that using information from these three techniques — imputation, using administrative records, and proxies — may not always match the reality of an address’s occupancy status or the characteristics of the people who live there,” the Census Bureau says. “However, these techniques are widely used in statistics because they have been proven to be more accurate than leaving the information blank.
Public records show about 1,172,000 “people” were imputed nationwide in 2000 and 1,163,000 in 2010. The 2020 figure has not been released yet although it is expected to be higher due to COVID-19 related difficulties.
But Korzeniewski, who also served in Trump’s Treasury Department, wrote in his article that the Census Bureau used another form of imputation in 2020 which he contends is based on statistical sampling. This occurred when census officials decided to utilize a “Group Quarters Imputation” due to problems gaining access to “households” located in places like colleges and residential healthcare facilities.
The greater reliance on such imputation was not part of the 2020 Decennial testing phases nor did state census officials have any input on the decision, Korzeniewski wrote. That could be the basis for Arizona officials to acquire state-by-state imputations records from the Census Bureau with details of the types of imputation used.
“To my knowledge, the Census does not normally produce such documentation and it takes years for the Census to publish studies on itself,” Korzeniewski wrote, adding that states would also need to ask for records pertaining to the decision-making processes around the data calculation processes in order to determine whether it has grounds to challenge the Census outcomes.
“Successfully challenging the Census results would affect appropriation and could affect apportionment,” he wrote. “The Census typically takes years to officially release information on the Decennial, making it impossible for states to seek redress if action is not taken quickly.”
Business owners thinking of requiring proof of COVID-19 vaccination as a condition of employment may want to consider the latest advisory from the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA).
According to OSHA, an employee’s adverse reaction to a COVID-19 vaccine is recordable on the company’s OSHA recordkeeping log if the reaction stems from a work-related, mandated vaccination and the incident meets at least one other recording criteria, such as time away from work, medical treatment beyond basic first aid, or restricted work duties or job transfer.
Despite the advisory to employers, OSHA and other federal agencies have announced efforts to encourage COVID-19 vaccinations in the workplace. That is why OSHA, which is part of the U.S. Department of Labor, does not require employers to report an employee’s adverse reaction to a recommended vaccination, even if the employer pays for or arranges for the vaccination.
“OSHA is exercising its enforcement discretion to only require the recording of adverse effects to required vaccines at this time,” the website reads, adding that the vaccination “must be truly voluntary. For example, an employee’s choice to accept or reject the vaccine cannot affect their performance rating or professional advancement. An employee who chooses not to receive the vaccine cannot suffer any repercussions from this choice.”
In a related matter, OSHA has weighed in on employers requiring employees to sign liability waivers in the event of exposure in the workplace to the SARS virus which causes COVID-19. While the agency does not take a position for or against waivers, its website makes clear that the existence of a waiver does not preclude an employee’s right to file an Occupational Safety and Health Act complaint.
“The worker continues to have the right to file a safety or health complaint under section 8(f) and/or a retaliation complaint under section 11(c), regardless of any language contained in the waiver.”
The OSHA website also provides employers and employees with information about the requirement for reporting in-patient COVID-19 hospitalizations stemming from workplace exposure. Such reporting is only required if the hospitalization occurs within 24 hours of the exposure, according to the website.
